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Hong Kong Racing - Horse Race Analysis, Tips, Predictions & Live Races For Sha Tin & Happy Valley

C

chaumi

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Joined
Oct 7, 2012
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Been watching racing in Hong Kong for a couple of years now, plenty of good-priced winners up to 80-1 had and to be had. Sire interest plays a big part for me, as usual. The formats, race days, spread of good class races, and the general race classes are all easily understood once you get your head around them.

Plenty of unknowns in form (and trainers/jockeys till you get to know them), so it often calls for an appropriate lowish-stakes effort. But some regularly interesting good-class racing throughout the year mixed in with standard-class days/events

And this (live) pre-race analysis and race commentary helps, I wish we had stuff like this giving enhanced pre-race thoughts on fitness levels, appearance, gait etc, for our races...(we could have Jinnyj doing the conformation analysis)...


https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au...g-kongs-meetings-137428?section=livestreaming

Sadly no Exchange markets available, but most bookies cover the meetings.

***********************

There's one going today that's screaming 'not out of the first three and an excellent winning chance' at a wildly enticing 8-1 in the overall context of this race.

The horse in question is Fallon, running in the Happy Valley 2.50, a class 3 handicap.

Fallon will handle this 9f distance (has won over it before), and has proven he can carry the weight (top weight today). Still only 5, and this is 'only' a 118k race (ran well over a mile LTO in a 180k class 2 event).

The jockey today will know exactly what to do. Should be anchored last or near last, and come down the outside from last to first in the last furlong and a half. Always exciting stuff, when it works (he did it first at 80-1 in a race Dec 23, nailing it right on the line).

Plenty of the rest of the field look exposed. Perhaps the 3YO Talents Trump (50-1 or thereabouts) might have something. Those at the top of the market obviously look fairly strong.

Fallon can throw in the odd bad run, let's hope it's not one of those today. He'll win again, whatever happens here.
 
chaumi said:
Been watching racing in Hong Kong for a couple of years now, plenty of good-priced winners up to 80-1 had and to be had. Sire interest plays a big part for me, as usual. The formats, race days, spread of good class races, and the general race classes are all easily understood once you get your head around them.

Plenty of unknowns in form (and trainers/jockeys till you get to know them), so it often calls for an appropriate lowish-stakes effort. But some regularly interesting good-class racing throughout the year mixed in with standard-class days/events

And this (live) pre-race analysis and race commentary helps, I wish we had stuff like this giving enhanced pre-race thoughts on fitness levels, appearance, gait etc, for our races...(we could have Jinnyj doing the conformation analysis)...


https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au...g-kongs-meetings-137428?section=livestreaming

Sadly no Exchange markets available, but most bookies cover the meetings.

***********************

There's one going today that's screaming 'not out of the first three and an excellent winning chance' at a wildly enticing 8-1 in the overall context of this race.

The horse in question is Fallon, running in the Happy Valley 2.50, a class 3 handicap.

Fallon will handle this 9f distance (has won over it before), and has proven he can carry the weight (top weight today). Still only 5, and this is 'only' a 118k race (ran well over a mile LTO in a 180k class 2 event).

The jockey today will know exactly what to do. Should be anchored last or near last, and come down the outside from last to first in the last furlong and a half. Always exciting stuff, when it works (he did it first at 80-1 in a race Dec 23, nailing it right on the line).

Plenty of the rest of the field look exposed. Perhaps the 3YO Talents Trump (50-1 or thereabouts) might have something. Those at the top of the market obviously look fairly strong.

Fallon can throw in the odd bad run, let's hope it's not one of those today. He'll win again, whatever happens here.
Click to expand...
This had better win as I just invested a whole minute in reading all that which, when, like me, you have the attention span of a hamster who just got a new wheel, is no mean feat!
 
haha good luck to us then. 'Invested' doesn't even come close.

It should be fun in the final furlong when he'll probably still be two-thirds back, but with that withering run already underway. The 9 furlongs should mean that last one is a long (enough) one.
 
chaumi said:
Been watching racing in Hong Kong for a couple of years now, plenty of good-priced winners up to 80-1 had and to be had. Sire interest plays a big part for me, as usual. The formats, race days, spread of good class races, and the general race classes are all easily understood once you get your head around them.

Plenty of unknowns in form (and trainers/jockeys till you get to know them), so it often calls for an appropriate lowish-stakes effort. But some regularly interesting good-class racing throughout the year mixed in with standard-class days/events

And this (live) pre-race analysis and race commentary helps, I wish we had stuff like this giving enhanced pre-race thoughts on fitness levels, appearance, gait etc, for our races...(we could have Jinnyj doing the conformation analysis)...


https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au...g-kongs-meetings-137428?section=livestreaming

Sadly no Exchange markets available, but most bookies cover the meetings.

***********************

There's one going today that's screaming 'not out of the first three and an excellent winning chance' at a wildly enticing 8-1 in the overall context of this race.

The horse in question is Fallon, running in the Happy Valley 2.50, a class 3 handicap.

Fallon will handle this 9f distance (has won over it before), and has proven he can carry the weight (top weight today). Still only 5, and this is 'only' a 118k race (ran well over a mile LTO in a 180k class 2 event).

The jockey today will know exactly what to do. Should be anchored last or near last, and come down the outside from last to first in the last furlong and a half. Always exciting stuff, when it works (he did it first at 80-1 in a race Dec 23, nailing it right on the line).

Plenty of the rest of the field look exposed. Perhaps the 3YO Talents Trump (50-1 or thereabouts) might have something. Those at the top of the market obviously look fairly strong.

Fallon can throw in the odd bad run, let's hope it's not one of those today. He'll win again, whatever happens here.
Click to expand...
You'll have seen I do ratings for HK on my site
My trainer and jockey ratings are course/race type based and I have all the form going back to the start of 2017

They have 30 odd pattern races, 1 at Hapy Valley and the rest at Sha Tin.

I have them cross referenced against each other as well as the 600+ UK/IRE/FRA flat pattern races I has set up for cross referencing.
There seems to better success for those coming from the last renewal of one of the HK races than those heading over there.
 
It's worth watching out for ex-Irish runners sold to run over there. It's big money stuff in general, so a fair bet they went for plenty of cash. That's one of the reasons I mentioned the 3YO in today's 2.50 - ex O'Callaghan.

They can take some time to acclimatize and/or find the right level, but ofc several poor runs is what (sometimes) gets you a 50-1 winner (that no one else knew, at least not the Hong Kongers!).

NOTE : Fallon also started out with MD
 
Their overounds are a very steady 122%

When I look at the bookie prices and the current tote prices, I have no feel for which way they're going to go by the off.

Unfortunately , unlike the UK/IRE races, I don't have the exacta or trifecta returns for HK, would have been interesting to put their races through the exacta and trifecta models I've built. Mind you on my data mining expeditions I've only found one angle worth pursuing so for far and that's for AW stks exactas.
 
As far as the Tote goes, one thing you can be sure of is there's plenty of cash floating around in the pools. Especially at Sha Tin meetings. Not too many fears of my level bets dropping the returns.
 
chaumi said:
As far as the Tote goes, one thing you can be sure of is there's plenty of cash floating around in the pools. Especially at Sha Tin meetings. Not too many fears of my level bets dropping the returns.
Click to expand...
you don't think our coins could force a sharp drop in price at the off???? lol
 
Well, our Fallon didn't really turn up today. Seems he was unruly in the parade, I've never watched him pre-race before so don't know if that's normal behaviour. It's possible he got too worked up - a watch next time might be advisable.

Anyway, some good racing coming up in HK over the coming weeks, for anyone that's an early riser (and that's a few of us) the meetings can kick off at 4 or 5 in the morning our time. Nice way to start off the mornings.
 
4 group 1's on Sunday at Sha Tin
:)

2025/12/14 610 SHA TIN (HK) Longines Hong Kong Vase (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) 3yo+
2025/12/14 650 SHA TIN (HK) Longines Hong Kong Sprint (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) 3yo+
2025/12/14 800 SHA TIN (HK) Longines Hong Kong Mile (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) 3yo+
2025/12/14 840 SHA TIN (HK) Longines Hong Kong Cup (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) 3yo+

I like some early morning racing on Sunday, I'll be doing my rating cards and pattern race cross referencing
 
It'll be interesting to see how the ratings hold up for these more classy races.

There was a 'findable' 70-1 winner on Weds morning (in a low-level handicap), had the race won a furlong and a half out. The trainer and jockey ratings would have helped, though was about mid way down the on the masters.

OFC we know the ratings tend to be more effective in the higher class races anyway, but I'll try to do some real-time analysis/review at the lower levels to see if there are any discernible patterns. I guess there's a chance that lower-level HK races will differ in some ways from what we're used to.

It could be that the ratings combined with the excellent pre-race analysis/commentary might throw up some angles worth noting.
 
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pawras said:
4 group 1's on Sunday at Sha Tin
:)

2025/12/14 610 SHA TIN (HK) Longines Hong Kong Vase (Group 1) (3yo+) (Course A) (Turf) 3yo+


I like some early morning racing on Sunday, I'll be doing my rating cards and pattern race cross referencing
Click to expand...
Good looking race, the principals all seem to be European and Goliath may be overpriced, I can forgive his run in America, he was too close to the infamous pace collapse that let Ethical Diamond in.
 
++++BREAKING NEWS++++

Such is his love for food from the region, Your Favourite Uncle Smart Arse tonight shook Talking Horses to its very foundations with the bombshell revelation that he will be delivering a Lucky 15 on the four Group 1 races.

Parting with the much-loved TH tradition of bravely aftertiming the winners (that was always going to win) and losers (that never had a prayer) once they've safely weighed in, YFUSA will be naming the four beasts of the bookmaking apocalypse by the midnight hour latest on Saturday night.
 
I have Giavellotto top of my ratings but not a strong top.
Goliath will get a saver bet.

However I'm going to have a place only bet on rank outsider Moments in Time (forgive the prev stupid typo) as the jockey rating I show on my card is purely course stats based and Hugh Bowman is streaks ahead of the others in the race.



1765567850163.png
 
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My friend Nick Child is one of the commentators/broadcasters out in Hong Kong. No idea if he's calling these races but he's done so well for himself. A great commentator, he used to do lots of point to points in the South West combining this at weekends with his day job - which was looking after Kauto Star for pretty much all his career - you don't get much better than that, do you?!

I used to enjoy Nick calling at the Cothelstone point to points as I was invariably in the commentary box at the same time and his friends used to text him to try and get him to include various words as a challenge. "Cucumber" was seamlessly inserted into the commentary with about five seconds notice. I imagine he will return to the UK at some stage and try and break into the top level here.
 
Ian_Davies said:
++++BREAKING NEWS++++

Such is his love for food from the region, Your Favourite Uncle Smart Arse tonight shook Talking Horses to its very foundations with the bombshell revelation that he will be delivering a Lucky 15 on the four Group 1 races.

Parting with the much-loved TH tradition of bravely aftertiming the winners (that was always going to win) and losers (that never had a prayer) once they've safely weighed in, YFUSA will be naming the four beasts of the bookmaking apocalypse by the midnight hour latest on Saturday night.
Click to expand...
There's a disgustingly-thieving each-way multiple to be had on this card.

The win part of it has two hopes - Bob Hope and no hope - but the utterly-grubby place portion looks eminently gettable.

More at midnight on the Morrow!
 
Ian_Davies said:
More at midnight on the Morrow!
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Dawn and YFUSA is already delivering the big reveal!

6.10: Most Likely Winner - Urban Chic 11/2, but it's marginal. Wrong Price - 50/1 Eydon.

6.50: Most Likely Winner - Ka Ying Rising (obviously ffs). Best thieving each-way options - Helios Express & Fast Network (both 20/1).

8.00: Most Likely winner - Voyage Bubble and YFUSA has burgled 5/1.

8.40: Most Likely Winner - Romantic Warrior (obviously ffs). Best each-way thieving option if some mug will offer you three places - Galen 50/1.

There is absolutely no need to thank YFUSA for this - he's all about helping the great unwashed fund trying some more interesting food than that bland Blighty muck.
 

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