The 2025 Longshot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

3.35 Hot Fuss 33/1

Anyone who is keen on Mondo Man at short odds should respect the chances of Hot Fuzz at long odds based on his Flat form.

 

[jinnyj]

Well done - he ran a huge race.

 

[Desert Orchid]

3.35 Hot Fuss 33/1

Anyone who is keen on Mondo Man at short odds should respect the chances of Hot Fuzz at long odds based on his Flat form.

Excellent run to split two of the favs.

 

[jinnyj]

Funny old race which was stop/start and several including Alexei pulled a bit too hard which didn't help hugely. Lugging 12st in that loose ground plus allowing the winner to get first run was just too much. He will come back from that....and still win me some more Darkie points hopefully.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Christmas Hdle - Rubaud 20/1 - see the race thread for the possibly-flawed rationale.

 

[Outsider]

Excellent run to split two of the favs.

Nice place D.

 

[Wee man]

3:05 Kempton Friday
Maskarvel 33s

First run in UK for new trainer having some decent bumper form in Ireland over the summer. Couple of the more experienced horses have obvious chances but none of them look like superstars, worth a go at the price

 

[Desert Orchid]

King George - Il Est Français 20/1. I don't think any rationale is required.

And for a bit of fun I've stuck it in a double with Rubaud (18/1) for 398/1.

The place portion itself works out at 29/1.

 

[notsodancingbrave]

Backed Il Est Francais ew on Tuesday as I think if the two Irish horses still havent got over the Punchestown race he could be the one to benefit as he seems to a Kempton horse.

 

[edgt]

Pied Piper 50/1 Paddy Power Chase Sat.
One of those that always turns up with his A game in big field handicaps, hurdles or chases.
The price seems to me an ew gift.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Christmas Hdle - Rubaud 20/1 - see the race thread for the possibly-flawed rationale.

I have to say I was pleased enough with that run even though third place didn't pay. I even thought turning for home that it would be second at worst but it was entitled to beat Celtic Dino on the figures, which it has done.

Golden Ace appears to have run to form. Taking her OR (152)as a guide, Sir Gino has given her a 14lbs beating (so 166) plus:

a) whatever more he had in hand
b) he wasted energy in the first mile running keenly
c) however much he comes on for the race

I reckon we're looking at a comfortably 172+ horse, worthy of being favourite for the Champion Hurdle, assuming that is the target, since, for me, that kind f rating would be more than enough to take care of State Man.

It does make me wonder, though, how big a cert the real Constitution Hill would be if he could be relied upon to get over his hurdles, given they weren't keen on Sir G taking him on.

It's just so saddening what has become of one of the best ever.