1000 Guineas

Desert Orchid said:
I've now checked the times for Sunday.

I can't help thinking Ghanaati might just be a very good winner. I admit I find myself saying this most years and the thing about fillies is that they're not as consistent so it tends to be harder to be dogmatic about them. However, I'm going to remain positive about this race until events prove me wrong.
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She clearly did extremely well, but I've got a feeling she had things right up her street. Like Gal I don't imagine we'll see her in the Oaks and I expect the other fillies to be much more competitive against her on reasonable going.
 
Ghanaati looks top class to me. I think she will prove to be the best 1000 Guineas winner since Russian Rhythm.
 
I dont have an strong opinion yet,
the winner has scope and it was a good turf debut but for the moment I have her in 115P, nothing special yet.
 
Ardross said:
It is too early to say whether RV hasn't trained on - her work evidently suggested she had . They have a potentially valid excuse for her run but time will tell.
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I guess that depends whether you listen to Gosden or Flame :lol:
the latter seems to have been more accurate on the day.

I never fancied RVB for the race and was certain early in the season that Fantasia had trained on brilliantly and that a small crack 2yr old like RV would be unlikely to improve much on the previous season. Sometimes horses can seem to regress at 3 and then train on again at 4 - as did Soviet Song. But she was a big filly and was never quite 'right' at 3 anyway.

It wouldn't amaze me if we have seen the best of RV in 2008. Esp given Gosden's playing down of the race, Cumani must be spitting tacks he wasn't able to run Fantasia in the 1000 - so am I!

I would not be surprised btw if the ground was even faster on 1000 Gns day - there was a very brisk wind all day as well as some sunshine, whilst Saturday was warm and fairly sunny bit with some cloud cover and no wind.

It was a very emotional day for the Hills family - quite heart-warming. They were all high as kites! And I was touched to notice that after every race, win or lose, Penny Hills always went to make a big kissy fuss of the horse.
 
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Headstrong said:
I guess that depends whether you listen to Gosden or Flame :lol:
the latter seems to have been more accurate on the day.

I never fancied RVB for the race and was certain early in the season that Fantasia had trained on brilliantly and that a small crack 2yr old like RV would be unlikely to improve much on the previous season. Sometimes horses can seem to regress at 3 and then train on again at 4 - as did Soviet Song. But she was a big filly and was never quite 'right' at 3 anyway.

It wouldn't amaze me if we have seen the best of RV in 2008. Esp given Gosden's playing down of the race, Cumani must be spitting tacks he wasn't able to run Fantasia in the 1000 - so am I!

I would not be surprised btw if the ground was even faster on 1000 Gns day - there was a very brisk wind all day as well as some sunshine, whilst Saturday was warm and fairly sunny bit with some cloud cover and no wind.

It was a very emotional day for the Hills family - quite heart-warming. They were all high as kites! And I was touched to notice that after every race, win or lose, Penny Hills always went to make a big kissy fuss of the horse.
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It was clearly the ground that stopped RV. I'd go as far as to say she ran pretty well considering. She's still rated just above the winner by most rating agencies.
 
If my 125 is right for Ghanaati, it means RV was not at all far off her top 2yo rating. My figures say Super Sleuth has run within 4lbs of her Newbury time rating, which would have me more inclined to believe the Newbury figure is misleading since the comparator form at Nemarket seems much more solid. It means Lahaleeb has disappointed. (Too f*cking right - I had a big EW on her.) The runner-up was a Bolger filly and you have to reckon he doesn't bring them across just for an outing.

What really got me about Ghanaati was the way she took them along at what seemed a smart pace yet was always travelling sweetly and when she picked up two out it was clear nothing was going to peg her back unless her stride shortened, which it didn't. It struck me as a very classy performance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If my 125 is right for Ghanaati, it means RV was not at all far off her top 2yo rating. My figures say Super Sleuth has run within 4lbs of her Newbury time rating, which would have me more inclined to believe the Newbury figure is misleading since the comparator form at Nemarket seems much more solid. It means Lahaleeb has disappointed. (Too f*cking right - I had a big EW on her.) The runner-up was a Bolger filly and you have to reckon he doesn't bring them across just for an outing.

What really got me about Ghanaati was the way she took them along at what seemed a smart pace yet was always travelling sweetly and when she picked up two out it was clear nothing was going to peg her back unless her stride shortened, which it didn't. It struck me as a very classy performance.
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I can't disagree with any of that.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If my 125 is right for Ghanaati, it means RV was not at all far off her top 2yo rating. My figures say Super Sleuth has run within 4lbs of her Newbury time rating, which would have me more inclined to believe the Newbury figure is misleading since the comparator form at Nemarket seems much more solid. It means Lahaleeb has disappointed. (Too f*cking right - I had a big EW on her.) The runner-up was a Bolger filly and you have to reckon he doesn't bring them across just for an outing.

What really got me about Ghanaati was the way she took them along at what seemed a smart pace yet was always travelling sweetly and when she picked up two out it was clear nothing was going to peg her back unless her stride shortened, which it didn't. It struck me as a very classy performance.
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If 125 were right I might agree, but that looks very high to these tired old eyes.

Ghanaati has a RPR of 115 and a Timeform rating of about 116 for her Guineas run. This would be in keeping with a well below par run from Rainbow View.
 
Look at it from another angle.

If Ghanaati is only 115/116, it means almost all the beaten fancied horses were below 110. How likely is that?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Look at it from another angle.

If Ghanaati is only 115/116, it means almost all the beaten fancied horses were below 110. How likely is that?
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Given the going and the likelihood that most of the decent ones didn't go on it, reasonably high I'd say.

115 is about right for a typical 1,000 G winner.
 
OK, I've checked and it looks like you're about right, Steve.

First things first, though. I have Ghanaati on 123 rather than 125.

2009 Ghanaati 123 (Time rating 110+wfa)
2008 Natagora 114+ (TR 100+wfa)
2007 Finsceal Beo 124 (TR 111+wfa)
2006 Speciosa 115 (TR 94+wfa)
2005 Virginia Waters 115 (TR 102+wfa) (Phil's sister?)
2004 Attraction 120 (TR 99+wfa)
2003 Russian Rhythm 118 (TR 101+wfa)

The clock says Ghanaati was almost as fast as Finsceal Beo and see how far those two are of normal winners on times. I don't recall anyone saying after her race that FB was an ordinary winner. It was just a shame she didn't really reproduce that form that summer.

I'd be inclined to argue that FB was trained for the big 2yo races whereas Ghanaati obviously wasn't, so I'd hope Ghanaati can go forward, rather than backwards, from last week.
 
Desert Orchid said:
OK, I've checked and it looks like you're about right, Steve.

First things first, though. I have Ghanaati on 123 rather than 125.

2009 Ghanaati 123 (Time rating 110+wfa)
2008 Natagora 114+ (TR 100+wfa)
2007 Finsceal Beo 124 (TR 111+wfa)
2006 Speciosa 115 (TR 94+wfa)
2005 Virginia Waters 115 (TR 102+wfa) (Phil's sister?)
2004 Attraction 120 (TR 99+wfa)
2003 Russian Rhythm 118 (TR 101+wfa)

The clock says Ghanaati was almost as fast as Finsceal Beo and see how far those two are of normal winners on times. I don't recall anyone saying after her race that FB was an ordinary winner. It was just a shame she didn't really reproduce that form that summer.

I'd be inclined to argue that FB was trained for the big 2yo races whereas Ghanaati obviously wasn't, so I'd hope Ghanaati can go forward, rather than backwards, from last week.
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Thanks a lot.I appreciate the time and effort you put into this. Thanks for these figures. Of these Ghanaati still looks high to me and Russian Rhythm low.

However I'm prepared to believe that Ghanaati has run a little better than the RPR/Timeform 115/116, given it was fast going and a fast time and a surface she thrived on.
 
As said after race - Ghanaati _ i speed rated her at 125 [incl wfa]...not much difference between our figures DO.

The horse to watch from the race is clearly Super Sleuth, the only one to come from well back in a race where doing that that looked difficult - did best of the rear hold up horses by some way.
 
EC1 said:
As said after race - Ghanaati _ i speed rated her at 125 [incl wfa]...not much difference between our figures DO.

The horse to watch from the race is clearly Super Sleuth, the only one to come from well back in a race where doing that that looked difficult - did best of the rear hold up horses by some way.
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Was hard to come off from the pace all day with the strong tailwind, she's a cracking bet for the Diane. Seems to be constantly improving too.
 
Galileo said:
Rainbow View looks to be the best of the pair but how good is that exactly now?
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Pretty good I'd say. I wouldn't be surprised if RV can win a Group 1 on decent going. Fantasia is more of a headache with regard to placing her, but is also talented.
 
Desert Orchid said:
OK, I've checked and it looks like you're about right, Steve.

First things first, though. I have Ghanaati on 123 rather than 125.

2009 Ghanaati 123 (Time rating 110+wfa)
2008 Natagora 114+ (TR 100+wfa)
2007 Finsceal Beo 124 (TR 111+wfa)
2006 Speciosa 115 (TR 94+wfa)
2005 Virginia Waters 115 (TR 102+wfa) (Phil's sister?)
2004 Attraction 120 (TR 99+wfa)
2003 Russian Rhythm 118 (TR 101+wfa)

The clock says Ghanaati was almost as fast as Finsceal Beo and see how far those two are of normal winners on times. I don't recall anyone saying after her race that FB was an ordinary winner. It was just a shame she didn't really reproduce that form that summer.

I'd be inclined to argue that FB was trained for the big 2yo races whereas Ghanaati obviously wasn't, so I'd hope Ghanaati can go forward, rather than backwards, from last week.
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Ghanaati OR114 for the Guineas :lol::lol::lol:

To be fair, the BHB handicappers don't often get it as badly wrong.
 
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