1000 Guineas

A

Aragorn

At the Start
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Apr 16, 2009
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Just over a month now to Guineas weekend and I've had my first AP bet on Big Break.

She looks all class to me and I'm not convinced by either of the favourites. Weld was talking Big Break up as an English guineas horse but she has been a little weak on BF this week, anyone know if she I'll turn up?

Has anyone else got involved yet?
 
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This is the way they were thinking last year:

27Oct12 Leopardstown ( 7 Sft ,RPR104 )
She did what we expected but, while she looked impressive, she would love better ground. She´s a very talented filly and will hopefully make a Guineas contender next year - Dermot Weld, trainer
08Sep12 Leopardstown ( 7 Gd ,RPR92 )
I see her as an English Guineas filly. She may go to the Curragh for the CL Weld Stakes but if she doesn´t have the decent ground she wants, I´ll put her away for next year. She is very talented.-Dermot Weld, trainer.
 
havnt had a good look at the guineas yet but oxxs aga khan filly tarana is one im seriousley keen on for the oaks.
 
Big Break has NO chance. Look through the formlinea of her win in Leopardstown when she was drawn in the box seat on the rail. The form is worthless. I'd place lay her at 5/1.
 
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I'm on What A Name @ 14/1 for €5k and in an e/w double with Cristoforo Colombo at 20/1.
 
I'm on Certify. Filly did nothing wrong last season and was impressive over a mile, and is well worth antepost favourite for me. Injuries allowing I think will go off a lot shorter.
 
SlimChance said:
Big Break has NO chance. Look through the formlinea of her win in Leopardstown when she was drawn in the box seat on the rail. The form is worthless. I'd place lay her at 5/1.
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Which one? In her maiden that happened but she came from behind when winning her Group 3 being drawn 3 of 7. She p!ssed over a reasonable field (which included Colts) that day.

I have plenty of respect for What a name and her form is some of the strongest but I'd have serious doubts about her getting the trip.

I also have serious doubts about whether Certify will train on. Same applies to Dawn Approach in the 2000.
 
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It was a 2 horse race and Joseph got Magician stitched up on the rail. She's got potential, granted, but shes no Group 1 horse, not a chance.
 
Slim, I respect your opinion but you're on dream street if you think that's what happened in that race :cool: Magician wasn't quick enough to fend off the other two and got crowded out. Not that I think he's all that good anyway.

Overall I would only say her form is reasonable but having gone through this in detail plenty of them have holes in them and she appeals most. It might not take a grade 1 performance to win this.

Just the judge is solid but not sure she will be quick enough. Flotilla needs it quick; if it was she would be interesting but I think the BC race was crap so not for me. Viztoria looks a horse who wants it soft and whilst it might not be lightning she would need it soft. If it was she'd be interesting although I'm not convinced by Oratorios progeny. Rosdhu queen won't stay, Sky Lantern might stay but not sure she's good enough and Purr Along needs further. Not many of the others appeal apart from Nargys who looks promising.
 
I take all that on board but Bug Break has no decent formlines so you're taking a punt on your eyes.
 
Difficult to disagree with that but I think most of the form will turn out to be rubbish, which is why I'm happy to back potential. Plus I think Dansili is just about the best sire of fillies around at the moment and her pedigree stands out. This is one race where bloodlines can really inform your thinking IMO and there are a number of "soon to be sprinters" towards the top of the betting.
 
SlimChance said:
but shes no Group 1 horse, not a chance.
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We're talking about the 1000 Guineas here, so the form of the fillies she beat as a 2yo and whether or not she looks a Group 1 horse at this point is pretty irrelevant. She has the right trainer and Timeform have tipped her up (they have an excellent record in picking out double figure price Guineas winners). I'm on What a Name also but Big Break is worth more than a look compared to others at the head of the market.
 
Aragorn said:
I have plenty of respect for What a name and her form is some of the strongest but I'd have serious doubts about her getting the trip.
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What A Name runs tomorrow in the Imprudence (7f) which has attracted a very decent field. Athough she's out of a Dayjur mare, she looks sure to stay a mile for me, based on her running style. She's been strong at the finish over seven.
 
Part time punter said:
Bit of a stab in the dark that certify wont train on wouldn't you say?!?!
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Not really.

Look at what her half sister did and look at the trainers comments from last year. She's small and lacks scope and given Godolophins recent record in the guineas can you give me any reasons why she will?

She may train on but my educated guess says she won't. Anyone know if she stayed in the UK?
 
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gus said:
What A Name runs tomorrow in the Imprudence (7f) which has attracted a very decent field. Athough she's out of a Dayjur mare, she looks sure to stay a mile for me, based on her running style. She's been strong at the finish over seven.
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Hi Gus,

Serious doubts may have been a bit strong. I would have doubts though being by Mr Greeley out of a dayjur mare. Her grand dam does suggest she might though and I really like her. I just prefer Big Break at this stage.

The imprudence is usually very informative.
 
Thanks Gus.

Not sure whether that makes any difference but the Dubai tactic doesn't seem to have paid off lately.
 
Aragorn said:
the Dubai tactic doesn't seem to have paid off lately.
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I've never quite understood what happened. In the early days, it looked like they'd discovered the Holy Grail of horse preparation. Then it went to the other extreme.
 
Al Zarooni has made a difference but they really haven't had the horses and when they have they can't seem to get them fit enough, early enough. Winning the Leger has been easy enough for them, weirdly...
 
Are the Djebel and Imprudence being shown on either of the racing channels? There's no indication in the Post that they are.
 
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