2 Milers - The road to the Queen Mother Chase (Latest acceptors Feb 12th)

Can anyone get Altior beat? The only argument is he hasn't looked to be travelling great last year or in the Arkle, that's until he sods off up hill like a prime Usain Bolt.
 
Double J said:
Can anyone get Altior beat? The only argument is he hasn't looked to be travelling great last year or in the Arkle, that's until he sods off up hill like a prime Usain Bolt.
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I was all over Footpad at the start of the season, had him in multiples (one of which is still alive) and my take was based partly on Altior's trip last year, that flat spot. I felt that a top class two miler could exploit that. However now I'm not sure. Let's face it he wasn't hard fit for the race last year on the back of just the one run and the ground wouldn't have helped him. This year though chances are he's gonna get better ground and more runs under his belt. Very tough to beat.

Now, I'm not normally a stats guy but Arkle winners have a magnificent record in the following year's QM and my default possie is to favour the younger horse - remember when Sizing Europe was well into double figures in 2011 when he faced Big Zeb and Master Minded. That's the angle I'm hanging my hat on at this point.
 
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2 angles to take with Footpad

1. He wasn't right fto, last day he hadn't recovered and was short of work. Will be hard trained fro March now

2. French horse on the go since being a 3 year old, won a small field Arkle and jumped exceptionally well in Ireland in slower run chases, won a small field Arkle of which the form looks very questionable now
 
Double J said:
Can anyone get Altior beat? The only argument is he hasn't looked to be travelling great last year or in the Arkle, that's until he sods off up hill like a prime Usain Bolt.
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I actually thought he travelled better than usual last time and maybe he's just growing up mentally. A frightening prospect for would-be challengers.
 
granger said:
Wonder could Min become the number 1 Mullins horse for this now
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littlelad said:
The form of the Durkan isn't working out too well....

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granger said:
2 angles to take with Footpad

1. He wasn't right fto, last day he hadn't recovered and was short of work. Will be hard trained fro March now

2. French horse on the go since being a 3 year old, won a small field Arkle and jumped exceptionally well in Ireland in slower run chases, won a small field Arkle of which the form looks very questionable now
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Willie and Ruby know that Min can't beat Altior, so they will avoid him at all costs. Really believe we will see Min in the Ryanair (Unless something happens to Altior of course or if multiple WPM horses meet with setbacks and he is the only one left standing - maybe then they go QMCC with him. But I think that one or more of Footpad, Ballyoisin or Great Field will be who lines up in the 2m at Cheltenham).

Footpad has been a huge disappointment this season and I'm leaning towards a combination of both your points granger - last years Arkle form only average and he hasn't improved any this year. As you were saying being on the go a long time now since a 3YO - I'm not sure we'll see any further improvement.

Put it this way - If Min and Footpad lined up against each other over 2m at the DRF in normal (ish) conditions - Min would win imo. If the betting prices were similar/close there is no doubt in the world where my money would be going.
 
I think Great Field has been left exposed now and would be surprised to see him race outside Ireland in the future

Hard to envisage Min beating Altior - very hard actually but have a feeling Munir/Souede may try split their horses now

Ruby only has one arse mind so i'd imagine he wont wnat to pick between Min and Footpad for the Ryanair so Min will prob go for the Ryanair
 
granger said:
I think Great Field has been left exposed now and would be surprised to see him race outside Ireland in the future

Hard to envisage Min beating Altior - very hard actually but have a feeling Munir/Souede may try split their horses now

Ruby only has one arse mind so i'd imagine he wont wnat to pick between Min and Footpad for the Ryanair so Min will prob go for the Ryanair
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Splitter!! :lol:

“Exposed” is a strong word. Having got no further than the 2nd in his pipe-opener, this was effectively his starting-point fir the season, and there was enough to like about it, for me to not dismiss him entirely. I liked the way he knuckled down when Footpad came to him, and I don’t think it’s entirely optimistic, to think that fitness may have started to tell, heading down to the last.

He has absolutely no chance of beating Altior in a QMCC though......none of them do.
 
Grasshopper said:
Splitter!! :lol:

“Exposed” is a strong word. Having got no further than the 2nd in his pipe-opener, this was effectively his starting-point fir the season, and there was enough to like about it, for me to not dismiss him entirely. I liked the way he knuckled down when Footpad came to him, and I don’t think it’s entirely optimistic, to think that fitness may have started to tell, heading down to the last.

He has absolutely no chance of beating Altior in a QMCC though......none of them do.
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I don't know Grass. I think his beauty was in no one knew how good he was, we have a fair idea. He can still be a fine horse but will need to be placed well to land a big pot

It's a bit generous to call it a pipe opener. He would have been in race training for around 6 weeks so no need for cobwebs. waiting patientlys form is well advertised. If he was good enough, he'd have won
 
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Disagree, but I’m probably biased.

GF covered less ground in his first outing, than he would have done up Mullins’ gallop two days beforehand. There are outliers of course, but you either believe racing brings horses on, or you don’t, and I’m a believer. Impossible to determine how much value to place in it, and it will vary from horse to horse, but ‘match fitness’ is a real thing, imo, and I’d expect some degree of improvement from most horses, for want of a season-opener.

Great Field may now be exposed as not good enough for Footpad and (I assume you meant) Simply Ned, but that’s not the same thing as saying that his level is now established. His next run will likely tell us a lot more about the ceiling of his ability.

I repeat; nothing will beat Altior in the CC.
 
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I do think he could possibly beat Simply Ned to be honest but even that isn't the form I'd expect from a horse with the ceiling he potentially had coming into this season.

I'd say Punch or Fairyhouse will be his target from here too as I don't get see him getting very far beyond 2 miles

All the great 2 miler horses i can remember could all get at least two and a half and look possibly even better than over 2m
 
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Nicky must be tempted to find a pacemaker for Altior. Possibly the only risks would be a slow pace with nothing wanting to make the running, or having to do it all himself.
 
True Simmo, but HdB must be tempted by the Grand Annual if his mark is in the low 150's, rather than a drubbing against Altior? Could just chase lower G1 prizemoney anyway I suppose, but they'd have to be tempted to go the handicap route.

If there's any risk of Special Tiara not turning up Henderson should be considering his options you'd think. I'd imagine Brain Power will stay hurdling now, and I'm struggling to think what he could use as a makeweight if necessary.

If it really does cut up badly I wonder if Willie might run both Footpad and Min against him and try and beat him tactically.
 
granger said:
Good on the connections of Un De Sceaux for at least making a race out of it on Saturday
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Has there been news this morning confirming UDS will run on Saturday?

Would've thought there's no chance he'll actually run on that good ground. Forecast has very little rain, so I think good ground is a certainty.
 
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