2-y-os 2016 incorporating First Season Sires

I think there will be plenty Col, especially next season. I'll also be looking out for any unraced 3 year olds as I imagine there is a fair few out there that should be bigger and stronger than their likely two year old competitors. No doubt they will all be short prices though!

Do we know the likely first season sires out there ready for next year? Cheers.
 
Colin Phillips said:
PtP, I've been looking for information on the 2017 first season sires, found nothing yet.
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Colin
Probably not accurate but I gathered this from the 2014 and 2015 Return of Mares. It may only include UK and Irish Sires. I've only included those that I think have more than 40 live foals still in the country.

Imperial Monarch (by Galileo) 152 foals but looks NH
Camelot (Montjeu) 123
Declaration of War (War Front) 107
Dawn Approach (New Approach) 101
Lethal Force (Dark Angel) 98
Red Jazz (Johannesburg) 93
Epaulette (Commands) 92
Havana Gold (teofilo) 92
Intello (Galileo) 79
Most Improved (Lawman) 72
Swiss Spirit (Invincible Spirit) 71
Shantaram (Galileo) 62
Cityscape (Selkirk) 54
Recital (Montjeu) 46
Mazameer (Green Desert) 42
Leroidesanimaux (Candy Stripes) 41

Can get the lesser hitters if required.
 
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Thanks both, I suppose Camelot will most likely be the favourite but it was never a horse I was convinced by albeit you can't argue with what he won.
 
Coolmore are always slow with their returns. Camelot has 150 to run for him, by far the most of any first season flat sire. Declaration of War has about 115 in Europe, quite a few have gone to the US.
 
Im excited to see some offspring of Dawn Approach and I'd expect thereto be plenty of early winners, a European champion 2yo who won the first juvenile race of the season in March should be right up there. Assuming Jim Bolger will have 1 or 2 they'll be in good hands.
 
Sunspangled said:
Coolmore are always slow with their returns. Camelot has 150 to run for him, by far the most of any first season flat sire. Declaration of War has about 115 in Europe, quite a few have gone to the US.
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Yes my figures ignore the 46 non-returns for Camelot, which can be foals or any other category (dead, barren etc.).
 
Interesting piece in Racing Post today giving a perspective on First Season Sires and quality of racing stock.
Power rated highly for % graded winners and Requinto for % winners to runners.
Finsceal Fior got off the mark with Annie Fior a few weeks ago to get his career going.
 
Looking back
Colin’s work from the past is worth revisiting and I thought it worth looking briefly at 2nd, 3rd and 4th season sires as to how they got on this season (these figures are Europe and North America wins for EU standing stallions so different to Colin’s charts in that victories elsewhere are taken into account):-

4th Season Sires
In terms of wins Fastnet Rock heads the list. As expected Sea the Stars has moved up to 2nd in terms of wins but is top of the list in terms of winnings which is not a surprise with having had Harzand. However even without Harzand he would have beaten every other stallion. Mastercraftsmam is 3rd in terms of wins with Champs Elysses and Le Havre next. The latter comes 2nd to StS if you measure winnings per starter.

3rd Season sires
Top of the list is surprisingly Arcano. He is followed by Makfi, Zebedee Equiano and Lope de Vega. The latter was the FSS of his year and remains the top prize money winner thanks to Belardo. Makfi has moved up the rankings from his FSS days in terms of wins but is behind Siyouni and Paco Boy in terms of winnings.

2nd Season Sires
This group looks most like their FSS rankings. Just as last year Zoffany heads the list of wins but just ahead of Canford Cliffs then it’s Poet’s Voice, Frozen Power and Lilbourne Lad. Zoffany also does pretty well in terms of winnings but cannot match French based Wootton Bassett through the exploits of Almanzor.

It will be interesting to see where this season’s FSS stand after another crop and their first 3yos.
 
Good stuff, thanks for posting.

What is also interesting is how some of these successful first season sires, aided by slick marketing and a band of first season mares of a higher quality than they "deserve", have fared with their second and third crops.

For example, Lilbourne Lad's current crop of yearlings (his third) have been going for little more than meat prices and I see that Sir Prancealot, this year's top first season sire, has not exactly set the world on fire with his foals this year (again, third crop).

So, perhaps we shouldn't get too over-excited about the performances of sires' first crops as 2-y-os.

Yes, that includes Frankel's too!
 
Frankel's first crop includes 60 foals of G1 winning/producing mares. The corresponding numbers for his second and third crops are 22 and 16 respectively.
 
Interesting piece by Kevin Blake in today's Thorough Bred Daily News:

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pdf/tdn/tdn170118.pdf

I tried "copy and paste" for the relevant article but failed dismally!
 
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Interesting article. Always like to have a bet in this market. No odds yet but you'd imagine Camelot will be favourite.

With his progeny likely to be looked after and brought to hand slowly, and with the market decided on number of wins rather than prize money, there is probably mileage in opposing him.

I don't know enough about breeding to suggest what with, however.

Declaration of War has a good number of live foals, but he didn't race until November as a 2yo and didn't really excel until he was 4.

Society Rock has the third largest number of live foals and the largest number of yearlings sold. His progeny could be more speedy early-season types and with a fee of €8,000 connections might be prepared to race them more. He'd be the one of interest to me at this stage, price dependent of course.
 
Any idea when this might be priced up? I know I placed my unsuccessful bet on Harbour Watch on 29/02 last year. I remember this because I was in hospital for the birth of my second son...
 
Colin Phillips said:
I emailed Stan James with regard to them posting some prices. They informed me .that they won' t be offering prices on this event.

BOO!
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Even if they did you'd be lucky to get £3.50 on. PP usually price it at some point, though I remember reading that someone on here had needed to email them too. The other firm that usually prices up these breeding markets is Racebets.
 
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