Weighted at 9.0
I don’t do comprehensive ratings any longer (lost interest) so there might very well be a few omissions but this is where I am at present with the colts (well not strictly true) given that the top-rated is a gelding.
Ask Frank = 98.11? on +1.22 @ Carlisle
2 Arcano = 96.83 on +2.08 (July Stks) (+2.17 estimate on projected Morny rating of 99)
Orpen Grey = 96.08 on +2.08 (July Stks)
3 Dick Turpin = 95.12~ on -1.54 @ Fairyhouse (Richmond to latest +1.71)
2 Canford Cliffs = 94.94+ on +2.70 (Maiden to Coventry +4.84 Coventry to estimated Morny 98.15 = +3.21)
Siyouni = 94.11? on +0.60 @ Longchamp
Goodwood Maestro = 93.70~ on +1.42 @ Goodwood
2 Dick Turpin = 93.41 on +1.76 (Richmond Stks + 0.98 maiden to Richmond)
1 Dick Turpin = 92.43 on +1.01 @ Salisbury
2 Arctic = 92.92 on -8.92 (Curragh,Tower Stks +0.71 from maiden to Tower)
2 Elusive Pimpernel = 92.82 on +3.62 (maiden to Acomb - +6.63)
3 Emerald Commander = 92.79 on +3.62 (maidens to Acomb +10.60)
1 Arctic = 92.21 on -5.92 (Curragh Maiden)
3 Poets Voice = 92.07 on +3.62 (maidens to Acomb - +9.13)
2 Showcasing = 91.94 on +4.97 (Gimcrack)
2 Silver Grecian = 90.94 on +2.89 (maiden to Superlative Stks - +2.40)
1 Canford Cliffs = 90.10 on +0.51 @ Newbury
Well the horse heads affairs is a gelding so not of any great interest for next year. It’s not unusual for a rogue to get in amongst the mix and you tend to dismiss them as being the statistical blip that such a method invariably throws up. Carlisle hadn’t really worked it’s way on to my rogues gallery, but then in truth I rarely rate their cards. The more I look at the card it actually seems quite solid, with just the one slow race and all others adjusting to class par on quite a tight bunch (+1.17, +1.36, +1.23 & +1.14) that equates to no more than 1.5L’s covering 4 separate winners!!! Ask Frank also won by 10L’s which would give it a bit of extra credulity as a host of close proximity finishers would be tantamount to asking me to believe that the fastest 2yo of the season occurred in an auction race in Cumbria!!! I’m guessing the horse is qualified for that sales race at Doncaster? But apart from that I haven’t given it any thought, and just think that there has to be explanation of sorts (even if can’t find it).
Of greater interest is Arcano. He started off with a modest effort of 77.35 at Newbury beating ‘Showcasing’ and then stepped up massively to displace Canford Cliffs in the list when winning the July Stakes for a figure of 96.83. An improvement from a maiden of about 19.5L’s isn’t unheard of, and I always like to find a horse that has proven it can win fast and slow. The improvement that top 2yo’s make once they enter pattern-company is more predictable and tends to be in the region of 2.5L’s – 4L’s per race, but this is only indicative. There’s another rule of thumb that suggests that it is half of what it was previously.
All of this sounds like pointless wittering but it becomes necessary to try and get a handle on the Morny. Canford Cliffs had run 94.94 in the Coventry and thus improved on his Newbury maiden by 4.84. Since this was run in mid June, you might have reasonable expectation to believe that his improvement would be on the higher end of the 2.5 to 4L’s spectrum (say 4L’s) and thus a projected figure of 98.94. The other way of estimated what you’d expect would bring him out on 2.42 for a figure of 97.36. If you compromise you 98.15 as what you’d expect him to be capable of running to in France. Special Duty had subsequently beaten Siyouni by 1.5L’s and provided his Longchamp rating is reliable (a big if) then she’d have been capable of running a theoretical 95.61 plus improvement of say 3L’s (a median figure) and so 98.61 in the Morny. I’m inclined to think that Arcano has probably run about 99.0 in beating these two and improved about 2.25L’s on his Newmarket performance, but I’m guessing.
I think Dick Turpin is likely to be flying under the radar, and has put up 3 times in the 90’s now and gone through the 95 barrier on his latest. He’s improved 1L and 1.5L’s on his latest two runs and seems destined to be capable of something like 97.50 on his current track. Elusive Pimpernel is probably heading in the right direction too and might be in the region of 98 by the end of the season too. I’d be more nervous about the prospects of Emerald Commander and Poets Voice who are only hitting low 90’s after three runs now, which is Monsieur Chevalier territory. They are still going forward although I’m not sure that they can have too much more improvement and I’d remain open minded about the pair. Silver Grecian is probably another one who fits the same category at this stage, and his improvement of 2.4 from his maiden to the ‘Superlative’ isn’t the normal schedule of a seriously progressive sort from what was a competitive base admittedly.
2 Taajub = 89.94 on +4.97 (maiden to Gimcrack +19.83)
1 Silver Grecian = 88.54 on +2.02 @ Newmarket
2 Vale of York = 88.32 on +3.62 ( maiden to Acomb - +7.09)
Awzaan = 88.24 on +2.08
Sea Lord = 87.85~ on -0.46 @ Ascot fell to 74.32 in the Acomb
Al Zir = 87.54 on -0.40 @ Newmarket
1 Elusive Pimpernel = 86.19 on +3.25 @ Newmarket
1 Alfred Nobel = 85.78 on +1.95 @ Curragh (subsequent performances have been slower)
2 Azmeel = 85.52 on +1.15 @ Newbury
Nideeb = 85.48 on +2.54 @ Ascot
St Nicholas Abbey = 83.96 on -3.43 @ Curragh
1 Azmeel = 83.89 on +1.42 @ Sandown
Lowdown = 83.47 on +2.08
Air Chief Marshal = 83.00 (Angelsey) also recorded 77.44 on -8.20, 78.94 (Coventry) 77.15 (phoenix)
1 Poets Voice = 82.94 on +3.25 @ Newmarket
Steinbeck = 82.71 on +3.61 @ Naas
2 Poets Voice 82.25 0n +0.46 @ Newmarket
1 Emerald Commander = 82.19 on +3.25 @ Newmarket
Kingsfort = 81.58 on -2.98 @ Curragh
1 Vale of York = 81.23 on +1.49 @ York
2 Showcasing = 80.74 on +2.51 @ yarmouth
2 Cape Blanco = 79.11p (won) on -2.31 @ Leopardstown (Tyros Stks)
2 Emerald Commander = 77.35 (won) on -3.36 @Newbury
1 Arcano = 77.35 (won) on -1.07 @ Newbury
1 Showcasing = 77.32 on -1.07 @ Newbury
3 Alfred Nobel = 77.15p (won) on -5.92 (Phoenix)
1 Cape Blanco 77.05 (won) on -0.27 @ Fairyhouse
3 Cape Blanco =76.41 (won) on -3.75 @ Fairyhouse (Futurity)
2 Beat Surrender = 74.82 on +3.62 (Acomb (0.31)
1 Beat Surrender = 74.51 (won) on +4.24 @ Naas
2 Alfred Nobel = 74.49p (won) Railway Stks on +1.00
1 Taajub = 70.11 (won)
The sub 95 clustering not for the first time features a few Ballydoyle horses. Eagle Mountain and Holy Roman Emperor were the last ‘fast’ 2yo’s I recorded, and you might argue that their most recent alumni were both beaten as 2yo’s the first time they were subjected to fast races (Mastercraftsman in the Lagedere and Rip Van Winkle in the Dewhurst). Alfred Nobel has trodden a similar path to date and registered figures that are slower than Mastercraftsman
Railway Stakes = MCM 83.64 versus Alfred Nobel 74.49 = about 9L’s
Phoenix Stakes = MCM 88.0 versus Alfred Nobel 77.15 = about 10.75L’s
MCM was slower than Elletelle winner of the C&D fillies listed race by 1.07 secs, Alfred Nobel was slower than Cirouette the corresponding winner by 1.24 secs putting him a crude length behind MCM. The evidence against the respective C&D handicap also run on both cards is more damning with MCM being beaten by Kingsdale Ocean by 0.62 secs where as Alfred Nobel was beaten by Invincible Force some 3.15 secs and a net of 2.53 secs or 14.75 L’s. The evidence suggests that Alfred Nobel is quite a bit slower than MCM at this stage in their respective development and has lost about 1.75L’s to that particular benchmark between the Railways and Phoenix Stakes. His saving grace appears to be the fact that he’s winning though. Very slow times recorded in victory can be indicative of tactical speed of course, and the greater the winning distance and high grade of the race, the more likely this is to be. He also has line through ‘In Some Respect’ to Dick Turpin which would suggest he’s about 0.25L’s behind that rival on his latest, albeit on 5Ibs worse terms. You might therefore project a figure in the region of 93.30, but it would require a bit of faith, and at this stage I think they’d be chance he could be taken off his feet the first time he’s subjected to the shock of a truly run fast pace.
Cape Blanco’s harder to get a fix on through the Tyros due in no small part to RVW’s difficult to calculate figure. If I use the identical methodology , then RVW was very slow (meaninglessly so in fact) and recorded 70.68 which can only be used as evidence of turn of foot and nothing else. Cape Blanco’s 79.11 is better, but it’s hardly stellar either. I could also bring RVW at 83.52 without bending any rules, which would put Cape Blanco 4.25L’s behind. I’m probably more persuaded however to think that RVW was slow and not to split the sample too heavily. He was beaten by Gluteus Maximus over C&D in the 2yo auction race by 0.60 secs for instance, where as Cape Blanco did at least beat Bobbyscot by 0.36 secs and so put himself 0.96 secs ahead of RVW (5.5L’s).
One horse that could be flying below the radar is Taajub who put up a very slow maiden win before just going down to Showcasing in the Gimcrack when getting his first taste of a fast pace. That Showcasing was narrowly beaten by Arcano in a Newbury maiden gives him a form line to build on, and the improvement of 19.75L’s from maiden to pattern is encouraging, although it’s always dangerous to read too much into these at face value. He certainly wouldn’t be the first horse to show such improvement, and it’s normally testimony to a low base, but then others like Beat Surrender could only replicate the level of their slow maiden win when pushed into a stronger grade and I’d expect to see him disappear thus.
Al Zir and Azwaan have both recorded respectable opening gambits and it remains to be seen what they’re capable of for better company