2 Year olds 2009

Have a look at the recording of the Cork 6 furlong maiden today....first three are all very promising (Bolger, O'Brien and Oxx in that order).....Dynasty looks a goregous specimen.
 
It was at Fairyhouse ?

Gibraltar Wave-- Isn't the Stack filly out of one of the Queen's mares ? I liked the way she picked up after being impeded by Dynasty .

Dick Turpin was mighty impressive - I have not seen the runner up's races against Alfred Nobel but were they such easy wins ?
 
Last edited:
Anyone know what the plan for Kingfort is? Has to be a worry that he has not reappeared - though a word of warning regarding him is that he was sure to be pretty well wound up for that maiden (a hot one) win as is the norm for the yard.

At the time they said they were putting him away and his next run would be the National Stakes at the Curragh. McDonogh reckons its the best 2YO he's ever sat on (I'm aware that these kind of statements from jockeys are often worthless, but he is clearly very highly regarded).
 
"Have a look at the recording of the Cork 6 furlong maiden today....first three are all very promising (Bolger, O'Brien and Oxx in that order).....Dynasty looks a goregous specimen."


'twas Fairyhouse and the one that took my eye was Bass Rock in third. Looks to have oodles of scope.
 
First three looked promising sorts alright.

Bass Rock was certainly the pick on appearance - lovely athletic type and subsequently ran a promising race without being given a hard time. Dynasty looked a nice enough sort as well, and ran accordingly. Will be interesting to see how he progresses - it was noticeable that he stuck his head in the air in the closing stages (particularly after Murtagh gave him a smack) and looked to hang fire until the final couple of strides. Of course, it was his first run and probably worth giving him the benefit of the doubt at this stage.
 
GET IN!!!!!

Easy for Arcano going away at the end, love it.

Good call on Arcano, but it was hardly easy and rather than going away he was just getting up on the line...but good bet.

Canford Cliffs bubble is burst and I would imagine it was an average enough renewal given the heaped finish in what looked a fairly run race.
 
Arcano is now 6/1 favourite for the Guineas in places or as big as 12/1 co-favourite with withs. Bizarrely Canford Cliffs is still joint favourite in some places.
 
"Have a look at the recording of the Cork 6 furlong maiden today....first three are all very promising (Bolger, O'Brien and Oxx in that order).....Dynasty looks a goregous specimen."


'twas Fairyhouse and the one that took my eye was Bass Rock in third. Looks to have oodles of scope.

Yeah sorry Fairyhouse....I thought Dynasty was much the greeness of the first three - running around all the way up the straight before getting the message close home. Maybe completely wr Bass Rock was pretty encouraging as well and I would expect both to easily reverse form with the Bolger filly next time out. Could see the second and third line up over 7 furlongs on Irish Champion day perhaps.

I am really taken with Dynasty as an individual....a bit Hawk Wingesque in terms of debut style without quite managing to get up as HW did.
 
The filly is Gibraltar Wave and is trained by Tommy Stack and not Jim Bolger . As she was interfered with by the runner up she did very well to get up .

As for CC I imagine that the reasons for his remaining short are not merely exisiting liabilities but a suspicion he was not right.
 
The filly is Gibraltar Wave and is trained by Tommy Stack and not Jim Bolger . As she was interfered with by the runner up she did very well to get up .

As for CC I imagine that the reasons for his remaining short are not merely exisiting liabilities but a suspicion he was not right.

Sorry correct again....Stack/Bolger....either way both trainers that have their two year olds razorsharp first time of asking.

As for Canford Cliffs....he is far too short given his breeding (bred to be a two year old and a sprinter) and his form is not that hot. People point to Xtension - but he needed every yard at Goodwood and were that race over 6 furlongs he would have been well beaten. I think Dick Turpin will end up being the Hannon's best two year old.
 
Sorry correct again....Stack/Bolger....either way both trainers that have their two year olds razorsharp first time of asking.

As for Canford Cliffs....he is far too short given his breeding (bred to be a two year old and a sprinter) and his form is not that hot. People point to Xtension - but he needed every yard at Goodwood and were that race over 6 furlongs he would have been well beaten. I think Dick Turpin will end up being the Hannon's best two year old.

Dick Turpin certainly beat In Some Respect much more easily than Alfred Nobel did and giving him 5lb. Air Chief Marshall was of course also one of those beaten out of sight by CC at Ascot.
 
Dick Turpin certainly beat In Some Respect much more easily than Alfred Nobel did and giving him 5lb. Air Chief Marshall was of course also one of those beaten out of sight by CC at Ascot.

Hmmm I will have to take you up on that (surprise surprise)...

Alfred Nobel beat In Some Respect 5 lengths after being set a huge task by Murtagh in bottomless ground. While making a direct comparison on the Air Chief Marshall form on good to firm ground and heavy ground would give me one or two concerns.

Although in saying all that, I would not be too surprised if there was not that much between Dick Turpin and Alfred Nobel - just the current formline are have plenty of holes in it right now.
 
I hope, Ardross, that you're about to say, sportingly, "Good call!" to Italian Stallion now? After getting the thumbscrew and the rack about saying ARCANO would turn over CANFORD CLIFFS, you still sounded disbelieving. A 10/10 where it's due, old dear.
 
I hope, Ardross, that you're about to say, sportingly, "Good call!" to Italian Stallion now? After getting the thumbscrew and the rack about saying ARCANO would turn over CANFORD CLIFFS, you still sounded disbelieving. A 10/10 where it's due, old dear.

Not at all old bean - all credit to him for his hunch based on visual observation - I was struggling to see the form line .
 
Weighted at 9.0

I don’t do comprehensive ratings any longer (lost interest) so there might very well be a few omissions but this is where I am at present with the colts (well not strictly true) given that the top-rated is a gelding.

Ask Frank = 98.11? on +1.22 @ Carlisle
2 Arcano = 96.83 on +2.08 (July Stks) (+2.17 estimate on projected Morny rating of 99)
Orpen Grey = 96.08 on +2.08 (July Stks)
3 Dick Turpin = 95.12~ on -1.54 @ Fairyhouse (Richmond to latest +1.71)
2 Canford Cliffs = 94.94+ on +2.70 (Maiden to Coventry +4.84 Coventry to estimated Morny 98.15 = +3.21)
Siyouni = 94.11? on +0.60 @ Longchamp
Goodwood Maestro = 93.70~ on +1.42 @ Goodwood
2 Dick Turpin = 93.41 on +1.76 (Richmond Stks + 0.98 maiden to Richmond)
1 Dick Turpin = 92.43 on +1.01 @ Salisbury
2 Arctic = 92.92 on -8.92 (Curragh,Tower Stks +0.71 from maiden to Tower)
2 Elusive Pimpernel = 92.82 on +3.62 (maiden to Acomb - +6.63)
3 Emerald Commander = 92.79 on +3.62 (maidens to Acomb +10.60)
1 Arctic = 92.21 on -5.92 (Curragh Maiden)
3 Poets Voice = 92.07 on +3.62 (maidens to Acomb - +9.13)
2 Showcasing = 91.94 on +4.97 (Gimcrack)
2 Silver Grecian = 90.94 on +2.89 (maiden to Superlative Stks - +2.40)
1 Canford Cliffs = 90.10 on +0.51 @ Newbury

Well the horse heads affairs is a gelding so not of any great interest for next year. It’s not unusual for a rogue to get in amongst the mix and you tend to dismiss them as being the statistical blip that such a method invariably throws up. Carlisle hadn’t really worked it’s way on to my rogues gallery, but then in truth I rarely rate their cards. The more I look at the card it actually seems quite solid, with just the one slow race and all others adjusting to class par on quite a tight bunch (+1.17, +1.36, +1.23 & +1.14) that equates to no more than 1.5L’s covering 4 separate winners!!! Ask Frank also won by 10L’s which would give it a bit of extra credulity as a host of close proximity finishers would be tantamount to asking me to believe that the fastest 2yo of the season occurred in an auction race in Cumbria!!! I’m guessing the horse is qualified for that sales race at Doncaster? But apart from that I haven’t given it any thought, and just think that there has to be explanation of sorts (even if can’t find it).

Of greater interest is Arcano. He started off with a modest effort of 77.35 at Newbury beating ‘Showcasing’ and then stepped up massively to displace Canford Cliffs in the list when winning the July Stakes for a figure of 96.83. An improvement from a maiden of about 19.5L’s isn’t unheard of, and I always like to find a horse that has proven it can win fast and slow. The improvement that top 2yo’s make once they enter pattern-company is more predictable and tends to be in the region of 2.5L’s – 4L’s per race, but this is only indicative. There’s another rule of thumb that suggests that it is half of what it was previously.

All of this sounds like pointless wittering but it becomes necessary to try and get a handle on the Morny. Canford Cliffs had run 94.94 in the Coventry and thus improved on his Newbury maiden by 4.84. Since this was run in mid June, you might have reasonable expectation to believe that his improvement would be on the higher end of the 2.5 to 4L’s spectrum (say 4L’s) and thus a projected figure of 98.94. The other way of estimated what you’d expect would bring him out on 2.42 for a figure of 97.36. If you compromise you 98.15 as what you’d expect him to be capable of running to in France. Special Duty had subsequently beaten Siyouni by 1.5L’s and provided his Longchamp rating is reliable (a big if) then she’d have been capable of running a theoretical 95.61 plus improvement of say 3L’s (a median figure) and so 98.61 in the Morny. I’m inclined to think that Arcano has probably run about 99.0 in beating these two and improved about 2.25L’s on his Newmarket performance, but I’m guessing.

I think Dick Turpin is likely to be flying under the radar, and has put up 3 times in the 90’s now and gone through the 95 barrier on his latest. He’s improved 1L and 1.5L’s on his latest two runs and seems destined to be capable of something like 97.50 on his current track. Elusive Pimpernel is probably heading in the right direction too and might be in the region of 98 by the end of the season too. I’d be more nervous about the prospects of Emerald Commander and Poets Voice who are only hitting low 90’s after three runs now, which is Monsieur Chevalier territory. They are still going forward although I’m not sure that they can have too much more improvement and I’d remain open minded about the pair. Silver Grecian is probably another one who fits the same category at this stage, and his improvement of 2.4 from his maiden to the ‘Superlative’ isn’t the normal schedule of a seriously progressive sort from what was a competitive base admittedly.

2 Taajub = 89.94 on +4.97 (maiden to Gimcrack +19.83)
1 Silver Grecian = 88.54 on +2.02 @ Newmarket
2 Vale of York = 88.32 on +3.62 ( maiden to Acomb - +7.09)
Awzaan = 88.24 on +2.08
Sea Lord = 87.85~ on -0.46 @ Ascot fell to 74.32 in the Acomb
Al Zir = 87.54 on -0.40 @ Newmarket
1 Elusive Pimpernel = 86.19 on +3.25 @ Newmarket
1 Alfred Nobel = 85.78 on +1.95 @ Curragh (subsequent performances have been slower)
2 Azmeel = 85.52 on +1.15 @ Newbury
Nideeb = 85.48 on +2.54 @ Ascot
St Nicholas Abbey = 83.96 on -3.43 @ Curragh
1 Azmeel = 83.89 on +1.42 @ Sandown
Lowdown = 83.47 on +2.08
Air Chief Marshal = 83.00 (Angelsey) also recorded 77.44 on -8.20, 78.94 (Coventry) 77.15 (phoenix)
1 Poets Voice = 82.94 on +3.25 @ Newmarket
Steinbeck = 82.71 on +3.61 @ Naas
2 Poets Voice 82.25 0n +0.46 @ Newmarket
1 Emerald Commander = 82.19 on +3.25 @ Newmarket
Kingsfort = 81.58 on -2.98 @ Curragh
1 Vale of York = 81.23 on +1.49 @ York
2 Showcasing = 80.74 on +2.51 @ yarmouth
2 Cape Blanco = 79.11p (won) on -2.31 @ Leopardstown (Tyros Stks)
2 Emerald Commander = 77.35 (won) on -3.36 @Newbury
1 Arcano = 77.35 (won) on -1.07 @ Newbury
1 Showcasing = 77.32 on -1.07 @ Newbury
3 Alfred Nobel = 77.15p (won) on -5.92 (Phoenix)
1 Cape Blanco 77.05 (won) on -0.27 @ Fairyhouse
3 Cape Blanco =76.41 (won) on -3.75 @ Fairyhouse (Futurity)
2 Beat Surrender = 74.82 on +3.62 (Acomb (0.31)
1 Beat Surrender = 74.51 (won) on +4.24 @ Naas
2 Alfred Nobel = 74.49p (won) Railway Stks on +1.00
1 Taajub = 70.11 (won)

The sub 95 clustering not for the first time features a few Ballydoyle horses. Eagle Mountain and Holy Roman Emperor were the last ‘fast’ 2yo’s I recorded, and you might argue that their most recent alumni were both beaten as 2yo’s the first time they were subjected to fast races (Mastercraftsman in the Lagedere and Rip Van Winkle in the Dewhurst). Alfred Nobel has trodden a similar path to date and registered figures that are slower than Mastercraftsman

Railway Stakes = MCM 83.64 versus Alfred Nobel 74.49 = about 9L’s
Phoenix Stakes = MCM 88.0 versus Alfred Nobel 77.15 = about 10.75L’s

MCM was slower than Elletelle winner of the C&D fillies listed race by 1.07 secs, Alfred Nobel was slower than Cirouette the corresponding winner by 1.24 secs putting him a crude length behind MCM. The evidence against the respective C&D handicap also run on both cards is more damning with MCM being beaten by Kingsdale Ocean by 0.62 secs where as Alfred Nobel was beaten by Invincible Force some 3.15 secs and a net of 2.53 secs or 14.75 L’s. The evidence suggests that Alfred Nobel is quite a bit slower than MCM at this stage in their respective development and has lost about 1.75L’s to that particular benchmark between the Railways and Phoenix Stakes. His saving grace appears to be the fact that he’s winning though. Very slow times recorded in victory can be indicative of tactical speed of course, and the greater the winning distance and high grade of the race, the more likely this is to be. He also has line through ‘In Some Respect’ to Dick Turpin which would suggest he’s about 0.25L’s behind that rival on his latest, albeit on 5Ibs worse terms. You might therefore project a figure in the region of 93.30, but it would require a bit of faith, and at this stage I think they’d be chance he could be taken off his feet the first time he’s subjected to the shock of a truly run fast pace.

Cape Blanco’s harder to get a fix on through the Tyros due in no small part to RVW’s difficult to calculate figure. If I use the identical methodology , then RVW was very slow (meaninglessly so in fact) and recorded 70.68 which can only be used as evidence of turn of foot and nothing else. Cape Blanco’s 79.11 is better, but it’s hardly stellar either. I could also bring RVW at 83.52 without bending any rules, which would put Cape Blanco 4.25L’s behind. I’m probably more persuaded however to think that RVW was slow and not to split the sample too heavily. He was beaten by Gluteus Maximus over C&D in the 2yo auction race by 0.60 secs for instance, where as Cape Blanco did at least beat Bobbyscot by 0.36 secs and so put himself 0.96 secs ahead of RVW (5.5L’s).

One horse that could be flying below the radar is Taajub who put up a very slow maiden win before just going down to Showcasing in the Gimcrack when getting his first taste of a fast pace. That Showcasing was narrowly beaten by Arcano in a Newbury maiden gives him a form line to build on, and the improvement of 19.75L’s from maiden to pattern is encouraging, although it’s always dangerous to read too much into these at face value. He certainly wouldn’t be the first horse to show such improvement, and it’s normally testimony to a low base, but then others like Beat Surrender could only replicate the level of their slow maiden win when pushed into a stronger grade and I’d expect to see him disappear thus.

Al Zir and Azwaan have both recorded respectable opening gambits and it remains to be seen what they’re capable of for better company
 
Last edited:
Wachmans had a placed two year old yesterday at Dundalk and a first and third today at The Curragh. The stable has been sick all summer, so they have heaps of well bred two year olds to come out between now and the end of the season. Could be worthwhile keeping a close eye on them even when there is a well fancied Ballydoyle colt in there.
 
The two year old colts maiden at Leopardstown looks hooooooottttttttt….a few of the O’Brien colts are well touted as is Bolger’s Chabal and Oxx’s pair. Keep a close eye on this one.
 
Does not sound like a campaign given for a Guineas winner. If it is firm at Newmarket, why not come over for the National Stakes next Saturday or France on Arc day or Newmarket in the Autumn?

By James Burn1.55PM 1 SEP 2009
TRAINER Richard Hannon said on Tuesday that one-time Stanjames.com 2,000 Guineas favourite Canford Cliffs remains on target for the Shadwell Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on October 2, but added he would have "no hesitation" in putting the son of Tagula away for the season if the ground was too quick.
The impressive Coventry Stakes winner suffered the first defeat of his career behind Arcano in the Darley Prix Morny last month, a defeat Hannon was quick to put down to the ground.
"I still think that it was the firm ground which prevented Canford Cliffs stretching out at Deauville," Hannon is quoted on his website.
"I cannot recall seeing one horse win from the stands side through the entire length of the Deauville meeting, so you'd have to think that we were handicapped by racing next to the fence. They smashed the course record and it was obviously very firm, and if itlooked like being similar ground at Newmarket we would have no hesitation in packing Canford Cliffs up until next season.
"However, granted a bit of ease in the ground at Newmarket, I could be tempted by the Middle Park. I suspect that he would have to take on Showcasing there, but we know ours is very good and he is rated 5lb better than the Gimcrack winner anyway."
Hannon also said Dick Turpin, another of the stable's star two-year-olds, is likely to next run in the Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes at Newmarket on Septmeber 19.
 
Back
Top