2000 Guineas

After Listening to Murtagh on the radio last night, I'd expect Henry to be in the Irish Guineas and not in the Derby. He was pretty much non-comittal about everything, as you might expect, so it was really a case of ones interpretation of the sound bytes. To me it sounded like he was looking forward to the rematch and was unenthusiastic about the Derby.

Interestingly he also said he was always leaning towards riding Henry over Jupiter Pluvius (followed by a muttering that there wouldn't be much between the two).
 
Out of interest, was Henry entered for the Derby at the initial entry stage - when he was unraced?

If so, and I presume he was, doesn't that mean connections had some belief he would stay 12f based on breeding?
 
Fair enough. Although am I right in thinking he never even won over a mile prior to going sprinting, whereas Henry has proven he stays a mile at least, in a fast run race.

I am not saying his Derby entry revealed a lot, but it did tell us connections had thought about it before now, and are not rushing to supplement him on a whim.

That said, I do accept Ballydoyle do tend to block book their horses at Epsom so one cannot read too much into a Derby entry.
 
I've had a look at the full result of the 2000G and the times for the day. I'm undecided about the merit of the form.

In terms of times, the race wasn't that fast, 17lbs faster than Duntulum (OR84), which lost 10 lengths at the start, in the opener and 18lbs faster than Dr Faustus (OR89) in the 10f Class 2 handicap.

The proximity of 100/1 'rag' Stubbs Art in third is a valid argument for pulling back the level of the Guineas, backed up by the presence of two 33/1 shots, a 40/1 shot and a 50/1 shot all in the first nine home.

Raceform rate the race on the average side, 123+ for the front two, while claiming it was an "up-to-scratch renewal".

However, seventh-placed Stimulation was the subject of plenty of encouraging noises and "was just about the pick of the paddock" (Raceform). He had his stamina to prove but was thought likely to stay. I had him on 113 for his win in the Free Handicap. If he ran to that level here - and Royal Confidence ran to her mark in the 1000 Guineas next day - then it makes the front two very high class and Stubbs Art on a par with old Russian wotsisname (Dancer?), from the same stable and which I was on at 40/1 place only when a good third a few seasons ago. With Raven's Pass (OR 120) close up next there are grounds for arguing that the form should be read very positively.

Take out either of the first two and you'd say the other was a clear-cut winner. Take out both and you'd maybe say a 100/1 shot has beaten a classy 7f horse that didn't quite stay, with a decent Free Handicap winner fairly well beaten. You'd maybe want to argue that the 100/1 shot was on a par with some of the longer-priced winners and placed horses of past seasons.

We won't know for sure until mid or late summer, but until then I'm going to assume, with some reservation, that the fist two are on a par with Kings Best.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@May 9 2008, 08:14 PM
then it makes the front two very high class and Stubbs Art on a par with old Russian wotsisname (Dancer?), from the same stable and which I was on at 40/1 place only when a good third a few seasons ago.
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Norse Dancer
 
Terrific stuff, thanks for putting them up! Almost like being there, and without the sore feet and huge crowds :P
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@May 4 2008, 07:40 AM

What are the chances of Henry -

a) staying 10f
b) being tried on dirt
c) acting on dirt?
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Re Henry’s stamina potential. I wrote in my Guineas piece.

Henrythenavigator followed up the big impression he had made on his debut at Gowran Park, over seven furlongs, with a Group 2 win at Ascot in the Coventry Stakes at a furlong shorter. He subsequently finished runner-up to the Bolger-trained Saoirse Abu when odds-on favourite in heavy going at the Curragh and subsequently could make only third spot behind New Approach on soft going in the Futurity Stakes on the same course when returned to seven furlongs. The Kingmambo colt is brother to the high-class Queen Cleopatra, an eight-furlong winner at three and Group 1-placed at eight to 10 furlongs. With a DI of 1.92 and four stamina points he is virtually certain to improve again when stepping up to a mile on good going.

I have not changed my opinion Henry looks a proper 9 furlong horse (just the type to win the Guineas). I don't see why he shouldn't get 10 furlongs in time, but only has a very small chance of getting 12 furlongs. Sadler’s Wells is his dam sire and gives him that small chance (with 4 prepotent classic points and 4 stamina points).

I wouldn't have thought that he'll be tried on dirt, but he doesn't like it soft and it's possible Coolmore could opt for the BC Classic with him.
 
Originally posted by Ardross@May 4 2008, 09:11 PM
Unless it rains I cannot see any reason why NA , who I backed , would reverse the form with Henrythenavigator.

NA looks tailor made for the Derby - the decision to miss it , baffles me .
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Henry is one hell of a horse - hope he goes to Epsom though he might struggle to stay it would be a great boost for the race.I remain utterly baffled by what they are doing with New Approach.
 
Completely agree. Henry might not stay but wouldn't it be nice to have a top class horse who's actually done something in the Derby?
 
I don't think it's right to want the horse to run in the race for the sake of it....he has to be suited to the race demands and in my opinion he is not. Hawk Wing (leaving aside his four year old win) was never really the same horse after his Derby effort. It would be disappointing to see the same happen to Henry.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 24 2008, 10:10 PM
Completely agree. Henry might not stay but wouldn't it be nice to have a top class horse who's actually done something in the Derby?
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To be honest, I'd rather see a top-class miler mop up races like the Sussex, Moulin, QEII, BC Mile than a non-stayer placed in a Derby that might well leave its mark.
 
Absolutely. Although it'd be nice (urgh, horrible word!!!) to see him run in the Derby if connections feel he's a miler I'd rather he stuck at that trip. It's a pointless exercise otherwise, not least when for the sake of a run in a certain race he may get injured, we all know Epsom has its foibles and is a trappy course.
 
As the thread dedicated to the race shows, there are some puzzling aspects to yesterday's race: did NA run his race, how fast was the ground in reality, and was the pace really as slow as Warbler's timings indicate? &tc...

But watching the replay and esp the overhead, it was breathtaking how quickly and how far Henry pulled ahead as soon as asked - and he won going away, effortlessly, and just HANDS AND HEELS. So I think there is every reason he might get the Derby trip, and imo it's certainly worth a try. On the other hand, it does come very soon after two Group 1s; but he didn't have a hard race
 
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