2000 Guineas

EC1 said:
sorry - crossed post Steve

it was just a thought

I know that Sadlers Wells changed quite a few when he was added as a chef
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Big change when he was added. Same with Ela-Mana-Mou. They represented holes in the system and were the first two I introduced to Steve Roman's list.
 
Steve

do you think Mastercraftsman has demonstrated on the track that he is more than likely to be a sprinter?

do you favour dosage over what the form tells you?
 
Off topic but Im staggered no one is pointing out that Prosser bend over for Mr meehan earlier this week. The going for this meeting was 10.1 last year, it was fine, good/firm flat racing ground. The going has been 9.1 this week and he has decided to water.........wonder why???? There is rain forecast around the nHQ area for the weekend, nothing would make me happier than Delegator runs a shocker and Meehan blames it on the ground being too soft....

Also, this consistent watering all over the 'flat' meetings has a detrimental effect on the 'breed' of top class horses in the future dont they??? Nothing in future will like good/fast ground, every racecourse will have to water every meeting just to 'ensure' there are runners......

No one in the media has ever brought this up fro discussion and its about time someone does!!! There are good replies on THE RP site under the Newmarket watering news, be quick though because they pull out all the negative comments.
 
EC1 said:
Steve

do you think Mastercraftsman has demonstrated on the track that he is more than likely to be a sprinter?

do you favour dosage over what the form tells you?
Click to expand...


I've no doubt Mastercraftsman is a miler. The fact that his best form came at 6 furlongs at two probably highlights this rather than contradicts it.

I use Dosage in the absence of form. If form appears to establish something different you should re-examine what the system is telling you to see where the assumptions might be falling down. It's all about getting the best reflection of reality as is possible.
 
Warbler said:
Well we need a proper mathmagician to do the technical stuff then.
Click to expand...

In the meantime, here's what happens when you calculate the interquartile range for both axes:

3489194893_2bae400b11_o.png


The intersection is quite similar to my 'by inspection' attempt; with Delegator and Rip Van Winkle right on the cusp but just outside.

Interestingly, if Rip Van Winkle were to win, and the numbers re-crunched, the ranges would change subtly enough to include him. Doing the same for Delegator still leaves him just outside.

Of course, there's no reason why we can't increase our sample size of winners by going further back - perhaps Steve would be good enough to tell us roughly how far back we could go, and how many dosage points is too few to be counted?

Having said that, I still think the spreads interesting, as there a clear cluster, and then a few minor groupings. I'm assuming Zafonic is the outlier on the high side? and there's another one there too at about 3.70. These two must be quite historical? and yet I thought conventional wisdom was that we were supposed to be breeding for speed?

I'm guessing that Pennekamp, Golan and Mark Of Esteem are the group of three who dip below the positive CD line so that would be 2001, 1996 and 1995. Zafonic would be 1993 and the other high outlier must pre-date that.
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Correct - the other one is Rodrigo De Triano.
 
I did a bit of digging into dosage a few years ago - just found my spreadsheet...

these are the dosage index for 47 Group 1 winning milers


4.60
4.33
4.20
4.20
3.80
3.76
3.73
3.67
3.67
3.44
3.42
3.38
3.00
3.00
2.82
2.75
2.74
2.71
2.50
2.38
2.36
2.33
1.86
1.81
1.78
1.67
1.57
1.56
1.55
1.46
1.42
1.40
1.34
1.31
1.31
1.29
1.17
1.05
1.00
1.00
0.84
0.82
0.73
0.54
0.22​
 
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these the CD for same

sorry bout formatting

1.14​
​
1.19​
​
1.04​
​
0.98​
​
0.96​
​
0.98​
​
1.00​
​
1.04​
​
0.93​
​
0.70​
​
0.98​
​
0.76​
​
1.00​
​
0.89​
​
0.81​
​
0.80​
​
0.72​
​
0.62​
​
2.00​
​
0.68​
​
0.69​
​
0.60​
​
0.60​
​
0.53​
​
0.64​
​
0.54​
​
0.56​
​
0.52​
​
0.54​
​
0.50​
​
0.35​
​
0.43​
​
0.41​
​
0.37​
​
0.37​
​
0.33​
​
0.26​
​
0.10​
​
0.18​
​
0.14​
​
-0.22​
​
0.05​
​
-0.19​
​
-0.30​
​
-0.91​
​
 
some people think everything is a load of old bollocks though - which leaves you with no way of analysing horse races ..bar throwing a dart at a board

no matter which way you look at analysing a horse race - it could all be deemed bollocks if taking that view

form ratings could be deemed bollocks as well - do they pick the winner of every race?...do they show a profit?

its all bollocks is it not?
 
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I'm starting to like Finjaan again then. He comes back into play on the CD, which would seem to indicate he'd get the trip, but has too much sprint influence on the DI side, so doesn't make the cross-hairs. A steady early pace might bring the 8F's back to him a bit. Mind you, if he refuses to settle again, it's by no means implausible to see him sitting out there making the pace himself.

I'm half wondering if some kind of extravagant reversed forecast isn't the best way of trying to solve this one, as it's so tight I'm not sure I'm going to find picking the winner any easier than I would three to fill the places
 
Meanwhile, from The Guardian:

Brian Meehan will walk the course tomorrow morning before deciding whether Delegator will take part. Meehan warned earlier in the week that his Craven Stakes winner would be re-routed to the French Guineas if the going was too quick, but now says he would be "surprised" if the going is not suitable.
 
Warbler said:
Segal = Doesn't seen to know, but seems to have it between Arazan and Delegator on softer ground, but says its wide open otherwise. Apart from that, he seems to be advocating laying the O'Brien pair (something which of course he never does himself)
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First Imperial Commander on Wednesday and now this. Stick to handicaps Mr Segal.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Meanwhile, from The Guardian:

Brian Meehan will walk the course tomorrow morning before deciding whether Delegator will take part. Meehan warned earlier in the week that his Craven Stakes winner would be re-routed to the French Guineas if the going was too quick, but now says he would be "surprised" if the going is not suitable.
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:lol:

Who is he trying to kid that it was ever anything other than a last resort option. Of course Delegator's running at Newmarket
 
I like Sea The Stars - can't imagine Oxx will be bringing him over for a fun day out and he will like the ground.
 
Will said:
Off topic but Im staggered no one is pointing out that Prosser bend over for Mr meehan earlier this week. The going for this meeting was 10.1 last year, it was fine, good/firm flat racing ground. The going has been 9.1 this week and he has decided to water.........wonder why???? There is rain forecast around the nHQ area for the weekend, nothing would make me happier than Delegator runs a shocker and Meehan blames it on the ground being too soft....

Also, this consistent watering all over the 'flat' meetings has a detrimental effect on the 'breed' of top class horses in the future dont they??? Nothing in future will like good/fast ground, every racecourse will have to water every meeting just to 'ensure' there are runners......

No one in the media has ever brought this up fro discussion and its about time someone does!!! There are good replies on THE RP site under the Newmarket watering news, be quick though because they pull out all the negative comments.
Click to expand...

Agree very much with everything you said (think i posted same a couple of days back).

Not a nice thing, but I'd very much like to see Delegator finish quite far down the field.

Not sure though who i think is worse ... Meehan or Prosser. It's the first weekend of May - how much watering do we really need?
 
Agree completely about watering of tracks there was a time when horses on the flat used to run on ground like concrete, not ideal of course much prefer to see good or good to firm,most horses will not be inconvenienced by good ground anyway, complete nonsense to threaten to take delegator out because of ground.
 
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/iframe/showgoing.asp?mapid=92806

Course Newmarket
Next Race Saturday 2nd May
Report Date Friday 1st May; 9:15 am
Going Good to Firm
GoingStick
Additional Information Watering (9mm being applied to whole course)

Weather Forecast
Friday: Dry with sunny spells, 18-19°C
Saturday: Dry with sunny spells, 18°C
Sunday: Light rain overnight (1mm). Likely to stay dry during the day, 16°C

(emphasis mine)
 
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