2000 Guineas

Gareth Flynn said:
In the meantime, here's what happens when you calculate the interquartile range for both axes:

3489194893_2bae400b11_o.png


The intersection is quite similar to my 'by inspection' attempt; with Delegator and Rip Van Winkle right on the cusp but just outside.

Interestingly, if Rip Van Winkle were to win, and the numbers re-crunched, the ranges would change subtly enough to include him. Doing the same for Delegator still leaves him just outside.
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This is clearly expressed and arrives at the same short-list as my analysis with regard to stamina aptitude (stripping out the non-runners).

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 11 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.65 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI than the average (up to around DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 11 winners those that fall into this bracket are: Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33), Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16), Kings Best (2.06) and King Of Kings (1.78). Golan is the only winner of this race in the past 11 renewals with a DI of below 1 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race), which gives hope to those that appear better suited to middle distances such as Rip Van Winkle (DI 1.10) and Gan Amhras (0.76).

YEAR COLT
DI​


2008 Henrythenavigator1.92 2007 Cockney Rebel1.91 2006 George Washington1.67 2005 Footstepsinthesand 1.08*(from 1.77)2004 Haafhd2.33 2003 Refuse To Bend1.05 2002 Rock Of Gibraltar2.16 2001 Golan0.60*(from 0.78)2000 Kings Best2.06 1999 Island Sands1.57 1998 King Of Kings1.78
AVERAGE ​

1.65
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)


If we concentrate on those lying in the band of DI 1.4-2.2 (capturing the majority of the past 11 winners), we are left with a shortlist of: Arazan (DI 1.53), On Our Way (1.80), Mastercraftsman (1.82), Shaweel (1.86), Set Sail (1.93), Himalya (1.93), Ouqba (1.96), Monitor Closely (2.00) and Intense Focus (2.20).
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
Of course, there's no reason why we can't increase our sample size of winners by going further back - perhaps Steve would be good enough to tell us roughly how far back we could go, and how many dosage points is too few to be counted?
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The fewer points in the profile the less accurate the reading is likely to be. Anything in single digits and probably below about 12 should be treated with suspicion. A high points total ought to indicate a more accurate reading.

Note that a low points reading is nothing necessarily to do with the ability of an individual, it simply reflects a low level of prepotent influence with regard to distance aptitude. The numbers of those lacking prepotent influence close up in the pedigree (which is also likely to reflect a low overall score) should also be treated with caution.

The longer-term average is also around, or a bit below DI 2.
 
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SteveM said:
:( ...well might he have had his head in his hands. The man cost me dear.
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I remember it well....a bad bad day. Cost the horse alot that day in the sense they wanted a Classic win so probably forced their hand going for the Derby - a race that left its mark on the horse.
 
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Galileo said:
I remember it well....a bad bad day. Cost the horse alot that day in the sense they wanted a Classic win so probably forced their hand going for the Derby - a race that left its mark on the horse.
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I think that's right. Nevertheless I actually think he was in the form of his life in the Derby. It was simply that he came up against a fantastically good horse that saw out 12 furlongs. It was outstanding how Hawk Wing came to challenge and ran on with an empty tank. It was probably more the Derby than the Guineas that bottomed him for the season.

The Lockinge was magical though.
 
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SteveM said:
This is clearly expressed and arrives at the same short-list as my analysis with regard to stamina aptitude (stripping out the non-runners).

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 11 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.65 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI than the average (up to around DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 11 winners those that fall into this bracket are: Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33), Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16), Kings Best (2.06) and King Of Kings (1.78). Golan is the only winner of this race in the past 11 renewals with a DI of below 1 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race), which gives hope to those that appear better suited to middle distances such as Rip Van Winkle (DI 1.10) and Gan Amhras (0.76).

YEAR COLT
DI​


2008 Henrythenavigator1.92 2007 Cockney Rebel1.91 2006 George Washington1.67 2005 Footstepsinthesand 1.08*(from 1.77)2004 Haafhd2.33 2003 Refuse To Bend1.05 2002 Rock Of Gibraltar2.16 2001 Golan0.60*(from 0.78)2000 Kings Best2.06 1999 Island Sands1.57 1998 King Of Kings1.78
AVERAGE ​

1.65
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)


If we concentrate on those lying in the band of DI 1.4-2.2 (capturing the majority of the past 11 winners), we are left with a shortlist of: Arazan (DI 1.53), On Our Way (1.80), Mastercraftsman (1.82), Shaweel (1.86), Set Sail (1.93), Himalya (1.93), Ouqba (1.96), Monitor Closely (2.00) and Intense Focus (2.20).
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Fantastic work cheers, i've backed On Our Way at 50's
 
I've come to the (rather reluctant) conclusion that last year's Heinz represents the best form on offer. I'm not totally convinced that either Art Connoseiur or Bushranger (particularly the later) ran to their best that day, but you couldn't fail to be impressed by Mastercraftsman that day. Conditions should be no problem, though it's hard to be any more than hopeful given the presence of the likes of Delegator, Rip Van Winkle and Evasive.

Will be interesting to see how the ground rides tommorrow after watering; Flame has been fairly adamant that Evasive needs cut in the ground, and I reckon if the ground was genuinely on the firm side of good to firm, it would present a significant problem for Delegator.
 
you just get the feeling they will over water Trackside tbh

I really don't like Delegator - I don't even know why - just doesn't give me the feel of a 2000 winner
 
I'm convinced we're in for a shock here having gone through it again and again. I think the Ballydoyle pair are appalling prices, particularly RVW. I am considering place laying them both. Delegator was impressive in the Craven but I'm not sure this race and the underfoot conditions are going to suit.

One stat which I mentioned last year is that there is nearly always a longshot in the places...

2008: Stubbs Art, 3rd at 100/1
2007: Cockney Rebel, 1st at 25/1. Vital Equine, 2nd at 33/1.
2006: Olympian Odyssey, 3rd at 33/1
2005: Rebel Rebel, 2nd at 100/1. Kandidate, 3rd at 100/1.
2004: Azamour, 3rd at 25/1
2003: Zafeen, 2nd at 33/1. Norse Dancer, 3rd at 100/1.
2002: Redback, 3rd at 25/1

I've got 2 lines into where the longshot will come from at the moment. I think people are forgetting that the Dewhurst is by far the strongest 2 year old trial for the Guineas over recent years and whilst the winner is absent, he had Lord Shanakill and Finjaan only whiskers behind him. I have found pros and cons with both but at 20/1 and 25/1, they are much better value than the absolutely absurd 4/1 on Rip Van Winkle who has no grounds to make up the deficit whatsoever, Aidan O'Brien is one of the best trainers in the world but to instantly assume he'll get that much improvement out of him considering Finjaan, Ashram and LS are bound to have improved too, is very naive.

My concern with Finjaan is that I'm not sure he'll stay the mile trip, I think he was very flattered by running up the stands rail in the Dewhurst and that passage may have made his performance look better than it was. Lord Shanakill was more of the complete package throughout the season and whilst I have little time for Karl Burke, he's done a great job with the horse, placing in the Morny and winning the Mill Reef which were decent races on the clock. I can't help thinking at the back of my mind that Guineas winners don't make their debuts getting beaten in Thirsk sprint maidens though. The other horse from the Dewhurst I like is Ashram, I think Godolphin's forced early exit from Dubai this year has helped their horses be more forward and they've had 2 winners in the last 7 days and had few other runners. Having watched the Dewhurst back a couple of times, he gets a touch outpaced early on and races wider from the rest of the runners, when Moore presses the button, the rush from getting his outpaced position seems to catch him out a bit and whilst he finishes well, he looks like he'd still improve for the run. I think I'm going to side with him out of the Dewhurst bunch.

The other horse I like having rated the Craven meeting up using both RP and Mordin standard times is Monitor Closely. He ran well at Doncaster behind the well regarded Kite Wood and was only beaten just over 3 lengths in the sales race which Donatavium which is arguably the best two year old form from last year. His time behind Nehaam over 1m2f looks good enough to play a part in this weak Group One field and whislt I've missed the boat a bit, I've had a dabble at the 33/1. I also am a bit unsure where the serious pace is going to come from which as Alun said, may favour Mastercraftsman but Monitor Closely has raced prominently in all his races and I think Munro could turn this to his tactical advantage.

Monitor Closely at 33/1
Ashram at 25/1

May throw a CFC together with those 2 and Lord Shanakill and Finjaan.
 
I keep coming back to Finjaan but haven't been able to bring myself to back him yet. Richard Hills obviously doesn't believe in lightning striking twice as he rode Oquba in a maiden in Hamdans first colours only for Martin Dwyer to beat him on Finjaan (on debut - Oquba had, had a run). I'm not too upset to see Hills dessert Finjaan, and given that he's listed as being about 6Ibs heavier than O'Shea I'd have thought this has to help his chances of getting home a bit too. He was headed in the Dewhurst but earned the comment "rallied strongly" which doesn't sound like a horse that was running out of gas at 7F's at least. He's effectievly had another 6 months to strengthen up and isn't burdened by Richard Hills either. In fact, its tempting to wonder that given he went down by two noses in the Dewhurst, whether O'Shea's lack of a few Ibs might have made the difference, and we could thus assess him as a de facto winner? If they do go a bit slow early on then the trip should come back to the likes of Finjaan which suddenly brings his sprinting background into play (but he wouldn't be the only beneficiary I believe for this) . At the back of my mind though, I'm conscious of the fact that he's not always settled and half wonder if he won't run away with O'Shea and set the bloody pace himself!!! Supplementing Oquba has to be an indication that Finjaan can't carry too much confidence though.

I'm coming round to the idea of betting this race with a combo forecast, or simply leaving it alone even:ninja:
 
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Monitor Closely on SS speed figures ( Raceformupdate) has the best speed figure. There should be plenty of pace close to M.Closely, he takes a keen hold, MCM runs close to the pace and Gan Amhras will probably be pushing the pace. They may set the race up for Delegator .
 
Finjaan has little chance of staying imo.
Mastercrafstman is another I don't like at this trip
Delegator - just don't fancy it
Sea The Stars - will place but needs further

I still think Rip Van Winkle wins tbh...4/1 will look very big tomorrow when its won easy I reckon ;)
 
milo said:
Monitor Closely on SS speed figures ( Raceformupdate) has the best speed figure. There should be plenty of pace close to M.Closely, he takes a keen hold, MCM runs close to the pace and Gan Amhras will probably be pushing the pace. They may set the race up for Delegator .
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those raceformupdate speed figures suck real bad Milo

they make topspeed look good
 
Monitor Closely is 9 the place on BF right now, I've had a bit at a slightly better price
I also took bit of Lord Shanakill Place only

Also I've backed Mastercraftsman W&P - I just can't get away from him but can't explain why! I've done so well on both Guineas in the last 2/3 years - 1st or 2nd with all my bets - I think I'm just going to trust my instincts.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I have found pros and cons with both but at 20/1 and 25/1, they are much better value than the absolutely absurd 4/1 on Rip Van Winkle who has no grounds to make up the deficit whatsoever, Aidan O'Brien is one of the best trainers in the world but to instantly assume he'll get that much improvement out of him considering Finjaan, Ashram and LS are bound to have improved too, is very naive.
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I thought the likes of Finjaan and Lord Shanakill shaped far more like 2yo types than Rip Van Winkle. The Ballydoyle colt has far more scope than any of the horses that finished in front of him in the Dewhurst in my book (particularly considering he was unsuited by the run of the race). That said, I won't be backing Rip Van Winkle given the discrepancy in prices. Indeed, I conceed the fact that there is a strong argument to be made that it is too severe.
 
This is an excellent thread. I'll be playing up any winnings on Recharge for the Irish version.
 
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