3.10 – Newmarket – 2000 Guineas
Not one of the stand out Guineas in recent season’s but one of the key factors in the training industry in the past twenty years has been the introduction on all weather gallops. The Polytrack home gallops have enabled trainers to do more pace work with horses in the winter months and return a horse to the track with a higher level of fitness. Perhaps this is one of the main reason’s why the 2000 Guineas has been won by a horse making its seasonal reappearance 12 times in the past 20 running’s, suggesting horses coming off a break have an advantage.
Back in 1996 and 1999 Godolphin weren’t as reliant on their base in Dubai to prep the horses in the winter months, in fact the majority of the UK based horses either came back early at the start of April or they stayed in the UK throughout the winter. This year has been the first time in around 10 years that the boys in boy have brought back their strings early. April the 5th was when Ashram returned to Newmarket, which has given him time to settle back into his routine and hit top form.
In his first couple of gallops he wasn’t overly impressive but in a recent workout under Ted Durcan the former John Hill’s group 3 winner impressed when opening up from his lead and going away from a high class companion. Ashram certainly looks to have plenty in hand at home at present and he looks in great nick at present. A clear indication of his well being having not looked this well when coming off the plane.
Its clearly proof to Godolphin that coming back a couple of weeks earlier is an added advantage to the boys in blue and Ashram will be looking to land a bit of a Guineas shock at 18/1 this afternoon. An online exchange is currently offering 25/1 win only.
Of the 16 that line up, only 8 of the 16 back the facts that you really do need to be 1st time out this season, but of the remaining 8 to have run, I find it interesting that that Delegator recorded a time of 1m 36.56 secs when winning the Craven. A time quick enough to have won 7 of the last 10 colts classic, with only Cockney Rebel, Footstepsinthesand and Rock Of Gibraltar recording a faster time over the Rowley Mile. Today’s faster ground may have been giving Brian Meehan a few sleepless nights but his figure of 72 was deemed a 2lb (2L) improvement from his Dewhurst effort last season. He would be the main one to buck the first time out trends.
If you want value in the race John Ryan’s Ocean’s Minstrel is another not to be discounted. Proven over longer trips than this, he returned with a polished performance in the Easter Stakes at Kempton and making all he produced a solid clock figure of 76. This was recorded as 4L better than Delegator’s Craven success yet he trades as the rank outsider in the Guineas today. This is something that puzzles me and a direct line through Icesolator puts him 1/2L behind Cityscape who is a 20th of the price of Ocean’s Minstrel. John Ryan’s performer is yet to totally impress on turf which has to be noted but on form alone he is certainly the wrong price.
Of the horses making their reappearance today I have their best figures as follows;
Ashram – 75
Evasive – 73
Finjaan – 72
Gan Amhras – 72
Lord Shanakill – 77
Mastercraftsman – 75
Rip Van Winkle – 69
Sea The Stars – 72
The above shows the highest rated performances of those last season and interesting we only have 8L from best to worse. Instantly the main bulk of the Irish challengers looks outclassed with only Mastercraftsman holding his own on the figures showing up as the clear joint 2nd best in the line up.
Moving the top 4 through to the next stage, I’m left with Ashram, Evasive, Lord Shanakill and Mastercraftsman.
For me Evasive is one I’m keen to eliminate, his participation has never really been in doubt but the best performance from him has come with cut in the ground and more conclusively I fear that he may not be 100% ready for this having missed bits of work.
Mastercraftsman has solid form from last season and for me his effort when beating Art Connoisseur at the Curragh last season was one of the best efforts on the clock and he looks very solid. Not totally looking in love with the ground when beating Shaweel I’m willing to forgive a poor show in France at the end of the season, for the fact again I feel the ground didn’t show him to his best light. It can be no surprise his best effort came on fast ground and back on a sound surface today he comes into the reckoning.
I look towards Lord Shanakill here and a model of consistency he produced a cracking figure of 77 when winning the Mill Reef at Newbury. Having run a before down on the clock in the Dewhurst I think its proved the Dewhurst form isn’t good enough to win the Guineas this year but he scored higher figures than his Dewhurst effort on three occasions last season, once at Ascot, York and of course Newbury where he smashed the clock. However one little doubt has to be is whether he will get the mile having shown the best form over 6f and its noticeable his two ducks of 70 came in the Dewhurst and also at Goodwood when he ran over 7f. Its not write off form, but it does mean I will be making him a saver and not the selection.
For me the buck stops with ASHRAM. The former John Hills trained colt put up a devastating effort over 7f here last season when winning the Tattersalls Stakes and the figure of 75 certainly suggested he would have been hard to beat in the Dewhurst. The pace in the Dewhurst is what beat him and the fact he had to race deeper on the track than anything else certainly leads me to think he is value to have finished closer with a better position. With the Godolphin trends pointing to him, his work in great form and currently the jt 2nd in on figures I have to see him as a positive bet today. His course record of 2 from 3 is there for all to be seen and he gets the vote ahead of Mastercraftsman who rates the main danger. We will save on Lord Shanakill and Delegator.
Given Rip Van Winkle showed his best in the Dewhurst I just can see where the improvement will come from and I’m keen to take on the favourite.
Today’s Advised Bets
LAY To Win 10pts Rip Van Winkle (3.10 Newmarket) @ 4.9
BET 2pts Win & Place Ashram (3.10 Newmarket) @ 26.5 & 6.4
BET 2pts Win Mastercraftsman (3.10 Newmarket) @ 7.6
BET 1.5pts Win Delegator (3.10 Newmarket) @ 5.0
BET 1pt Win & Place Lord Shanakill (3.10 Newmarket) @ 22 & 5.6
About 10 horses beat standard time that day, if Delegator's was a true Gp1 performance he should have done too under the conditions he had. The raw time is pretty close to meaningless without a concession to prevailing conditions to equalise things. His time falls somewhere between 'listed' and the 0-110 par for an April 3yo.