2000 Guineas

I think it was a very good edition of the guineas,
Impressive bunch in the paddock.

It is always unsatisfactory when they split in 2 groups.

My feeling it was slight advantage to be in the far side, with better ground and good pace put by the spanish horse.

I think the best horse in the field is the winner but plenty of winners will come from this field in coming months.

The winner covered more ground than kingman and expect him to beat him again over 8 f if they flash again, on this run 10f should be a problem and what is more important , I think he will be a better horse on softer ground. 125p

Kingman run a very good race, 123 in my figures, I think he will be better suited by a flater track and especially over a shorter distance , i dont see him with an easy program.

Australia 123p, very good run first time out in the season, i am not so sure after this run that he will be a derby horse and could be better suited by 10f.

Toormore was dissapointing , not improving his Craven run, maybe an off day.

Of the rest
The spanish horse could be a jersey type.

Kingston hill didnt run badly on conditions not to suit.

War command was uneasy in the market and run disappointly.
 
sunybay said:
I think it was a very good edition of the guineas,
Impressive bunch in the paddock.

It is always unsatisfactory when they split in 2 groups.

My feeling it was slight advantage to be in the far side, with better ground and good pace put by the spanish horse.

I think the best horse in the field is the winner but plenty of winners will come from this field in coming months.

The winner covered more ground than kingman and expect him to beat him again over 8 f if they flash again, on this run 10f should be a problem and what is more important , I think he will be a better horse on softer ground. 125p

Kingman run a very good race, 123 in my figures, I think he will be better suited by a flater track and especially over a shorter distance , i dont see him with an easy program.

Australia 123p, very good run first time out in the season, i am not so sure after this run that he will be a derby horse and could be better suited by 10f.

Toormore was dissapointing , not improving his Craven run, maybe an off day.

Of the rest
The spanish horse could be a jersey type.

Kingston hill didnt run badly on conditions not to suit.

War command was uneasy in the market and run disappointly.
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I'd suggest those ratings make it an average race, suny.

RPRs are coming out along similar lines and it looks like they've been arrived at via The Grey Gatsby's OR 110. I'll probably get a bit of time on Thursday to check it out in more depth but I'm looking at a time rating around 130 for the winner but that might need to be revised downwards.

Either way it backs up my pre-race assertion that Australia would need to hit somewhere close to 130 to win and, as a prospective Derby horse, that would be highly unlikely (since not many milers can do that). It was a pretty monstrous run, I reckon, and proved once again that when O'Brien says he has a very high class inmate you need to take him seriously.

It sounded yesterday like John Gosden was apportioning some blame on Soumi for the way the race panned out. The guy is always compulsive listening.
 
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edgt said:
Interesting interview with S Bin Suroor suggests Fallon rides True Story in Dante with a view to better things in future..
Now J P Murtagh is retired KF may be able to make hay in the sunset of his career.
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Saeed Manana's racing manager Bruce Raymond clear in the Post today that Hughes will reclaim the ride .
 
I've managed a closer look at the times for Saturday.

EC1 and I have had discussions going back a couple of seasons regarding the standard time for the 10f on the Rowley mile course but that doesn't have any bearing on the findings here, as far as I'm concerned.

It looks like the key race (for times) on the day is the 6f handicap. The issue for me here is that I'm always reluctant to rely on 3yo races for reliability but the other option is to rate the day via the Palace House, which pushes some of the ratings up uncomfortably.

Using the 3yo handicap as the key gives Night Of Thunder a figure of 126. Nova Champ raced up a lane midway between the centre of the track and the far side so i'm happy enough with Night Of Thunder's rating. I'm also prepared to consider adding a notional mark up to Kingman's rating to reflect that he lost a couple of lengths out of the gate and started his challenge a shade early. I'd said before the race that I thought he was a 130 horse waiting to happen and I still believe that but whether he can beat the winner should they meet again is open to debate.

I also suspect the going was slower on the far side**. John Gosden said as much in his interview on Sunday, so I'm thinking about by how much I should consider reducing the ratings of those that raced on the near side. Shifting Power prevailed in a blanket in the Free Handicap so I'm sceptical about the implication that he has improved 9lbs since that race just over a fortnight back. I won't put a figure on it just yet, though. I'll see how the form works out first.

The other issue - coming back now to my discussions with EC1 - is the resultant difference in opinion we will now have regarding the value of the race won by Barley Mow.

There is a substantial difference in the standard times we work from at this trip. Mine puts Barley Mow on a time rating of 116 (after wfa). The current Raceform standard puts him on 105 (after wfa). EC1's are different yet again, I think.

My standard times (ie the old Raceform Standards)
8f: 97.3 (12.16 spf)
9f: 110.5 (12.28 spf)
10f: 124 (12.4 spf)

This is a constant increase of 0.12 spf as the distance increases, reducing to 0.10 spf going up to 12f.

Current Raceform Standards
8f: 95.1 (11.88 spf)
9f: 107.8 (11.98 spf)
10f: 120.5 (12.05 spf)

This gives an increase of 0.10 spf from 8f-9f but only 0.07s from 9f-10f, with a substantial increase to 12.33 spf at 12f.

I've always preferred the old times, so until future events prove me wrong I'm taking a very positive view of the race. Doing so puts the 'disappointing' Cloudscape on his OR, with higher rated horses behind him and representatives of Godolphin, Sheikh Hamdan and the Rothschilds ahead of him.

**
Edit:

In the closing race, the group that raced on the far rail, including the two joint favourites, were beaten over three lengths by the winner who came up the centre.
 
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sunybay said:
Australia 123p, very good run first time out in the season, i am not so sure after this run that he will be a derby horse and could be better suited by 10f.
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He certainly showed a great deal of pace. Interesting.

Unfortunately the same comments could be levelled at True Story who I have now backed.
 
On pedigree, he'll get 12f turning handsprings.
Going away from his field at the end of a well-run 1m as a 2yo, and would've probably won the Guineas with a tad more cut in the ground. If anything beats him, it's unlikely to be lack of stamina.
 
reet hard said:
On pedigree, he'll get 12f turning handsprings.
Going away from his field at the end of a well-run 1m as a 2yo, and would've probably won the Guineas with a tad more cut in the ground. If anything beats him, it's unlikely to be lack of stamina.
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"would've probably won the Guineas with a tad more cut in the ground"

There is absolutely no basis for this statement at all. Kingman won the Greenham very easily on soft ground and N of T bolted up on soft ground twice as a two year old - complete speculation.
 
I'm actually in agreement with Ardross. There were certainly more questions than answers left after the Guineas. But to suggest Aussie would have won with more cut is debatable.
NOT absolutely ploughed through soft ground as a 2yr old. He is actually proving an even better horse than I envisaged.
Regards Kingman, he was played very early in the Guineas, a rematch would be interesting with the winner. Though on a straight course I'm not sure I would be lumping on Kingman, especially on soft ground.
Aussie did run a great race, and is a shame that they did not all run together. Would he have beaten the first 2 - not sure. Would he have won - possibly.

One thing is for sure - he will take the world of beating in the Derby.
 
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It's not a question of who acted on the ground, but which would have benefitted more from the increased test of stamina. Go figure.
 
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Frankel
That reply was in response to the prior edict "There is absolutely no basis for this statement at all".
Unfortunately, your post got caught in the middle.
 
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