2008 Arc

Montmartre is top priced with regular bookies at 4/1 (Bet365) according to oddschecker. There is over £100 @ 14s available on Betfair (and looks like there has been for a while).

Funny business.
 
As I said in the York thread, I feel New Approach is a standout bet at 9/1. Youmzain and Soldier of Fortune take turns in beating each other, and Zarkava is much too short.

Is Duke of Marmalade an unlikely runner? For some bizarre reason, Frozen Fire was shorter than him on Betfair this morning.
 
Can`t see the Duke running in the Arc if they have pretensions of running him at the Breeders Cup.
At the moment I only have a couple of points on New Approach at a little over 10/1 for this and am loathe to get to heavily involved as my Montmartre position (4 points @ 6/1) is looking a bit dodgy.
 
Duke of Marmalade now 6.8 from a price in the teens yesterday ... anyone have any insight to this?
 
Betfair's Arc prices tonight...

Zarkava 4.9
DOM 6.8
New Approach 9.6
Soldier Of Fortune 9.4
Youmzain 15.5
Prospect Wells 18.0
Vision DEtat 20.0
Frozen Fire 20.0

I backed SOF a few weeks back on the basis he has been freshened up nicely for this and is likely to get an ease in the ground. On faster going he is worth passing over.
 
Considering the summer northern Europe has had i`ll be very surprised if the ground isn`t on the soft side come Paris in October. With that in mind Soldier of Fortune, New Approach and Youmzain are all very backable, especially as the front two are cronic value.
 
That was my first thought too on the news - relationship being laid down and all that
 
In the RP today one of the columnists (I forget which) said something along the lines of "...Fabre, who will primarily be training for Sheikh Mo next season..."

Is that just reading too much into the purchase, or are we about to see a grand scale shift in approach? Or will it be in addition to current operations - the buying up of all things bloodstock related seems relentless from the boys in blue.
 
Fabre is being very shrewd here. He's achieved everything he possibly could in racing as a trainer already; by selling his yard and still being able to train from it, and getting now doubt some very good horses to work with, he has taken care of his ease down into retirement very cleverly - he no doubt got top dollar for the yard, the Sheikhs don't haggle. In fact one criticism Ive often heard levelled at Godolphin by people connected, is that their solution to every problem is just to throw {more} money at it...

Will Fabre have more or less autonomy than bin Suroor, that's the question? One advantage he will have, is he'll be dealing with far fewer people in future, which will leave more time and energy for the horses.

The time trainers spend dealing with owners is often greatly underestimated imo. It's frequently immensely stressful and the trainer acts as a sort of social service, in both sense of the word.....

Some of the most successful trainers eg Stoute and Prescott make it clear that this relationship is NOT part of the deal. Smaller trainers have no choice if they are to get and keep owners; and the friendlier they get the more often the owners/s take the piss inc financially, in my experience...

Aidan O'Brien has possibly largely been free to develop his own genius as a trainer, because he has had only one small tightknit group of owners to deal with, and of those he possibly only really has to deal with Magnier on a practical level... and certainly not in any 'support role'. He doesn't need to spend any time chasing up payments either, presumably :D
 
Very interesting to read Soldier Of Fortune might be going straight to the Arc. In the Racing Post today O'Brien states he is in the Irish Champion and the big German Group 1 but mentioned he could go straight for the Arc.

Desert Orchid mentioned a while back he might be best fresh, and I know connections were not happy with him going to the Arc last year after a hard race in the Niel.

I do not think the horse is a superstar on faster going but on an easy surface I think he is top class and you get the impression O'Brien is going to have him trained to the minute for this.
 
I agree, he interests me a lot for the race esp if he gets his ground and is fresh. I don't think AO'B will be taking any chances as the race looks very winnable with SOF
 
Galileo said:
and you get the impression O'Brien is going to have him trained to the minute for this.
Click to expand...

Indeed. I took 9.4 last week. I can`t for the life of me understand why the Duke is shorter. Not only does SoF hold him on a line through Papal Bull, but the chances are the gound is more likely to be in his favour and and the Duke hasn`t been trained for the Arc at all really.
 
That was reported as VC and I thought it was a joke at the time. 16/1 still up on their website. Plenty of 12s around elsewhere.

Either way it would be a poor Arc that saw Getaway cross the line first.
 
What price Soldier of Fortune if this rain continues (assuming they`re getting their fair share in France) and the ground is heavy come Arc day? I couldn`t see him getting beat to be honest.
 
After todays races Ladbrokes go...

Zarkava 7/2
Soldier Of Fortune 4/1
Getaway 8/1
Prospect Wells 10/1
Youmzain 10/1
Frozen Fire 12/1
New Approach 12/1
 
Just looking at the Fabre three year-olds in the Prix Neil.

Ideal World - not good enough
Russian Cross - looks smart, but entered in the Prix Dollar not the Arc
Prospect Wells - Runner-up behind Montmartre lto

Interesting.
 
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