2009 Arc.

Euronymous said:
That's because he isn't value, he is exposed, he won a poor King George and the owner/trainer have had far better horses in this and none of them have won.
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Think that's a bit dismissive and a tad harsh. I've never been a big Conduit fan but he is rapidly becoming a cracking each-way bet in my eyes.

After the favourite it is a very open race in my opinion. Fame and Glory is clearly solid place material as well but is unproven on fast ground. Conduit has been kept fresh for this since the King George, has had a light season, likes g/f going and by all accounts peaks in the Autumn. Add the inevitable frantic pace from Ballydoyle pacemakers and likely quick ground and I don't think it takes a great leap of imagination to see Conduit staying on strongly for a place.

He's 9/1 now and may be 10s/12s or bigger on the PMU so all in all I've talked myself into a wee each-way poke. ;)

Good luck to everyone as we sit back and savour what should be a magnificent race. I really cannot wait!!
 
The size of the field really worries me. I only hope that a large number of no-hopers don't spoil it for one or more of the principals, esp STS. He will be the one they are all out to 'get', and jockeyship will be all-important. Luckily Kinane is one of the more astute tactically as he will need all his wits about him
 
Excellent piece on Youmzain in the Post today. As much as F&G winning would pay for my holiday in January Channon's charge coming out on top would be my first choice.
 
Despite the big field i'm still surprised that Sea the Stars is still a backable price. I don't think any of the UK & IRE horses are within several lengths of him and think the French horses are within 5 lengths...

I expect him to fly the start as usual, sit handy, maintain that position down the false straight and then move up to the shoulders of the leaders about two out.. Pretty much the same way as he has won every race this season. Stamina does not look an issue at all to me, nor does the ground, nor does the track.. In fact I can't see any reason not to steam into him at the price...
 
Galileo said:
Fame And Glory was very impressive on good to firm ground at Leopardstown earlier this season.
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I'm a big fan Galileo and think Fame has been consistently underrated all season. He certainly showed plenty of speed off a good pace to win the Ballysax and Derrinstown derby trials. Don't know if the ground there was firm rather than just good but I take your point.

To be honest I've been praying for rain for weeks as I think on gd/sft or softer Fame and Glory would be a fantastic each-way bet. I just feel that as Fame and Glory is a strong staying son of Montjeu, and with the likely firm-ish ground, Conduit may represent a bit more value as he drifts out to double figures.

One thing's for sure-these two will really put it up to Sea the Stars and he will have to run the best race of his life to beat them both. It really is a mouthwatering prospect. :)
 
SteveM said:
Good enough...the money's down.
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Judging how he has been backed off the boards all week the money is down for STS .

Those backing anything else are trusting in hope that he is over the top .If he isn't they will all get thrashed as usual .

Steve was just as confident before F & G was left for dead in the Irish Champion.

Keep praying for rain as otherwise all that F & G will be seeing , as usual , will be STS's arse .
 
Ardross said:
Judging how he has been backed off the boards all week the money is down for STS .

Those backing anything else are trusting in hope that he is over the top .If he isn't they will all get thrashed as usual .
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He could be over the top, he might get beaten in a strong run 12f. These are both possibles and point to him being poor value at 4/7. I'm pretty sure odds-on merchants could find animals at that price week in/week out who'd legs would need to fall off for them not to win.
 
Ardross said:
It is quite simple - look at how poor the field was and look at her breeding.
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I've looked at her breeding, she's by bloody Pivotal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I've also looked at her damside; hmmm, mummy ran (and won) once over 1m6f, did most of her racing over 1m2f or 1m4f which was pretty good as her pedigree doesn't necessarily suggest she'd ideally want that far. Nevermind telling me Gull Wing stays well, Gull Wing is by In The Wings, not Pivotal, so it's a different kettle of fish.

You seem to have a bit to learn about pedigrees Ardross before you go patronising others about the subject!!

In my opinion it is doubtful whether or not Sariska would have won the Leger, nevermind walking it lie your rose tinted glasses suggest.

It's all well and good slating the form of the race through Mastery, but what so many fail to see is that Mastery won the race as he stayed better than anything else. Kite Wood is a good horse in his own right but Mastery had the edge with his stamina. Every year you hear the same idiots saying that a horse doesn't have to stay to win the Leger, a good 1m4f horse will win it; what utter shite, as has been proven this year. Mastery might not be a middle distance superstar but I think he's been underestimated and let's face it, nothing that lined up against him at Doncaster could beat him. He should make a nice Cup horse next year.
 
Shadow Leader said:
I've looked at her breeding, she's by bloody Pivotal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I've also looked at her damside; hmmm, mummy ran (and won) once over 1m6f, did most of her racing over 1m2f or 1m4f which was pretty good as her pedigree doesn't necessarily suggest she'd ideally want that far. Nevermind telling me Gull Wing stays well, Gull Wing is by In The Wings, not Pivotal, so it's a different kettle of fish.

You seem to have a bit to learn about pedigrees Ardross before you go patronising others about the subject!!

In my opinion it is doubtful whether or not Sariska would have won the Leger, nevermind walking it lie your rose tinted glasses suggest.

It's all well and good slating the form of the race through Mastery, but what so many fail to see is that Mastery won the race as he stayed better than anything else. Kite Wood is a good horse in his own right but Mastery had the edge with his stamina. Every year you hear the same idiots saying that a horse doesn't have to stay to win the Leger, a good 1m4f horse will win it; what utter shite, as has been proven this year. Mastery might not be a middle distance superstar but I think he's been underestimated and let's face it, nothing that lined up against him at Doncaster could beat him. He should make a nice Cup horse next year.
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How interesting that you decided to miss out Mountain Lodge - Irish st Leger winner who is Maycocks Bay's grand-dam. The influence for stamina is extremely pervasive down the female line . There is no point arguing with you anyway - you are always right no matter the evidence against you .
 
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Ardross said:
How interesting that you decided to miss out Mountain Lodge - Irish st Leger winner who is Maycocks Bay's grand-dam. The influence for stamina is extremely pervasive down the female line . There is no point arguing with you anyway - you are always right no matter the evidence against you .
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That will be the same Mountain Lodge that was sired by Blakeney [as opposed to Pivotal] three generations back then?! :lol: Three lines back in Sariska's pedigree before less stamina laden sires such as High Top, Muhtarram then Pivotal were added?! Maybe you want to go back a few more generations as well Ardross to try to prove your argument.

The simple fact is that you cannot possibly come out with sweeping statements that she would have hacked up in the Leger since it can't happen now. Don't you give Michael Bell, Lady Bamford and Jamie Spencer any credit in their opinions? Surely if it is as obvious as you've declared that she would have easily won the Leger, do you not think that one of those three at least might have seen the bleedin' obvious as you have and run her in the race?
 
The vibes all week say STS has continued to thrive and is in the same type of form as he was at Leopardstown.
 
Seem to remember the vibes were good for Ghanatti as well. You never know until they're asked the question. Her defeat, (and Goldikova's) just goes to show how dodgy it is backing really short priced horses when everything isn't in their favour.
 
If they go real fast early on, which I expect should happen, the field could be real strung out at the finish and we could get a good example of STS maximum effort. I'd suspect Fame and Glory and to a lesser extent Conduit could put in real good performances too.
 
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