2018 Gold Cuppin'

At the moment Anibale Fly, Minella Rocco and Edwulf will run at Leopardstown and while there’s nothing written in stone Coney Island is likely to go to Ascot,” Berry said.<section property="articleBody" class="article_body" style="clear: both;">
Anibale Fly is as low as 7-1 for the Leopardstown contest after his impressive Paddy Power Chase victory over the course and distance at Christmas.
Anibale Fly has been raised 11lbs by the handicapper for that success and Berry said: “He’s in with the big boys now and has to take his chance. He’s had a few hiccups in his career and was in no-man’s land there for a while. But he bounced back at Leopardstown, put up a good performance. We hope he can build on that.
“We had to be pleased with Minella Rocco’s last run [fourth in the Leopardstown Chase]. He jumped and stayed on well. You can’t get too excited about it. But it was his best run of the year.”
Minella Rocco made the frame in last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup but it is the relatively unexposed Coney Island who is as low as 8-1 in some lists for ‘Blue Riband’ glory this time. The horse is also prominent in ante-post lists for the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham.
“All options are open to him if he does well at Ascot,” Berry declared. “He is playing catch-up a little bit so we have to play it by ear and see how he performs at Ascot.”​
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I've just watched the 2017 Gold Cup all the way through again.

As someone who backed Wayward Lad every time he ran in the race I can feel the pain of Djakadam's fans. He's maybe the Wayward Lad of his generation.

I still don't think it was a great Gold Cup. I remember going low with Best Mate because he was dominant in a substandard era and I think it might not have been a strong race in depth. Matt Chapman pointed out during the build-up that the first five in the betting on November 1 of the season weren't there. Factor in Tea For Two's defeat of Cue Card subsequently at Aintree with the likes of Aso (good third to Un De Sceaux) and Smad Place well beaten and you have to wonder really what the winner achieved.

Then you have to ask, "Is this year's race any better?"

I have 'an empty' on Saturday and plan to watch the race again, once for every runner in the race imagining I'd backed it and looking for an excuse for its run, to see what I find.
 
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Think there is (and always has been) a tendency to automatically assume that the Gold Cup must be the highest-rated chase of the year, when it isn’t necessarily always the case. It’s safe to assume it’s always high-class, but not necessarily top-class.

I watched it back just a few days ago, and the thing that struck me most, was how ‘early’ Sizing John was off the bridle. In my minds-eye, he’d travelled best of them all, but both Djakadam and (pains me to say it) BDM were going better coming down the hill.

For me, the finish conclusively proved that Djak simply doesn’t get home over the trip - which is hardly a newsflash - and that BDM is just a one-paced stayer. The proximity of Minella Rocco almost certainly holds the form down, and of the principals, I’d only be inclined to give Native River the benefit of the doubt in this year’s renewal; him having hard-enough races on the run-up to the 2017 Gold Cup.

Unless something puts up a seriously impressive performance in the IGC next weekend, it’s hard to see The Biter beaten. I have absolutely no concerns on the stamina front, and find it bizarre that this would be questioned as a potential weak-link in some quarters of the media, given he stopped to a walk in the furlong-shorter RSA, but still managed to pick-up and chin a fully-extended, serious stayer, in Whisper, inside the last half-furlong.

i’d go so far as to say that the only horse who can beat The Biter is himself. Hopefully, with the New Course being on the inside, and fully-railed up the run-in, there won’t be a repeat of last year’s coronary-inducing antics.
 
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Doesn't leave many, Maruco, but does leave Might Bite.

I've taken another ante-post dabble, hopefully to no risk, with the NRNB/BOG concessions: Edwulf ew 66/1 to coffee money.

The four-miler is becoming one of the top form races and I think Edwulf's jockey was pretty confident he had Tiger Roll covered when making his move last year only for the poor beast to go wrong.

I was surprised they opted for the Lexus for his reappearance and that was clearly an easy race to have him inconspicuously run badly when very weak in the betting. His trainer had said that was just a case of getting him back to the track and that they would think about "major plans ...after Christmas".

I don't really expect him to run in the Gold Cup but if he did I wouldn't be surprised if he outran those odds and he'd be unlikely to start at more than 25/1 given his connections.

Edit - I should add that I don't think last year's four-miler was as good as the previous couple of years but it might end up working out well.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I have 'an empty' on Saturday and plan to watch the race again, once for every runner in the race imagining I'd backed it and looking for an excuse for its run, to see what I find.
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Now that is commitment. I have to say the worst thing about punting the jumps is sitting through long replays and have to admit that I can only take so much of it. Its a lot easier when the flat season comes around to watch 6f sprints over and over. No doubt getting lazy with watching the jumps replays costs me but sometimes when you've got to watch an 8 minute race around Carlisle a few times, the thought of reaching for a rope and a wobbly stool becomes a much more viable option.

Fair Play Des I take my hat of to you.
 
Grasshopper said:
Think there is (and always has been) a tendency to automatically assume that the Gold Cup must be the highest-rated chase of the year, when it isn’t necessarily always the case. It’s safe to assume it’s always high-class, but not necessarily top-class.

I watched it back just a few days ago, and the thing that struck me most, was how ‘early’ Sizing John was off the bridle. In my minds-eye, he’d travelled best of them all, but both Djakadam and (pains me to say it) BDM were going better coming down the hill.

For me, the finish conclusively proved that Djak simply doesn’t get home over the trip - which is hardly a newsflash - and that BDM is just a one-paced stayer. The proximity of Minella Rocco almost certainly holds the form down, and of the principals, I’d only be inclined to give Native River the benefit of the doubt in this year’s renewal; him having hard-enough races on the run-up to the 2017 Gold Cup.

Unless something puts up a seriously impressive performance in the IGC next weekend, it’s hard to see The Biter beaten. I have absolutely no concerns on the stamina front, and find it bizarre that this would be questioned as a potential weak-link in some quarters of the media, given he stopped to a walk in the furlong-shorter RSA, but still managed to pick-up and chin a fully-extended, serious stayer, in Whisper, inside the last half-furlong.

i’d go so far as to say that the only horse who can beat The Biter is himself. Hopefully, with the New Course being on the inside, and fully-railed up the run-in, there won’t be a repeat of last year’s coronary-inducing antics.
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I'd pretty much agree with all of that apart from the last sentence or so. Whilst I think Might Bite is a worthy favourite and a lovely horse I don't really think he's unbeatable. I think he looks slightly more solid based on the list of horses behind him in the market who have had problems and whilst I couldn't back the likes of Our Duke or some of the others it wouldn't surprise me to see at least one of them come back to some sort of order and pose a real threat. If they can't then just beware of the old Double Shuffle :)
 
Might Bite's profile/quirks mean he will likely always be under-estimated, imo. People prefer straightforward horses and tend to have an inherent distaste for idlers/basket-cases - even if they are super-talented.

Forget a double-shuffle.....the Biter could do a moonwalk, and still win the Gold Cup. ;)
 
Colin Phillips said:
Yes, Grass, you were always a fan of Harchibald.
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I always afforded Harchibald respect for his achievements, Col.......he was indisputably a high-class G1 performer..........but he was - equally indisputably - a coward, a thief, a cad and a bounder, of the highest order. :cool:
 
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Grasshopper said:
I always afforded Harchibald respect for his achievements, Col.......he was indisputably a high-class G1 performer..........but he was - equally indisputably - a coward, a thief, a cad and a bounder, of the highest order. :cool:
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Or gave his jockey everything he had on the bridle .
 
The fact I was scrambling for a thread to put this on explains the point really.

American is a horse I have a lot of time for but what on earth would you do with him after today. Once again he travelled and jumped absolutely beautifully and the race looked his for the taking a long way out, but he just looked one paced at a time he should've been putting the race to bed. When he beat Rock The Kasbah last season at Uttoxeter it was a similar story but RTK just wasn't good enough to close the gap. At the time I thought he was idling in front but I'm not so sure now.

The question is what would you aim him at now?
 
Tbh bear I'd give him some credit as realistically that was his first run of the season having been PU in the Hen. It was always going to be a hell of a test in that ground today and I think perhaps that the winner had race fitness on side was a huge help.
 
I note from the RP form database, that RPR have surreptitiously dropped their Betfair Chase mark for Bristol De Mai, from the original 185 to 182.......presumably in the hope that no-one noticed it.

What do we reckon they will have shovelled it down to, by the end of the season? I put the spread at 172-174.........just let me know if you like the Overs or Unders, and we'll see how it goes.

#absolutejokers
 
Timeform does that all the time Grass, its absolutely impossible to calculate their margin of success from the past based on their ratings because they keep altering them once 'new evidence' arrives which they might also misinterpret.

Its all a game of guessing and changes of opinion happen all the time. Makes their ratings very unreliable though but used correctly could still turn up profit. Not so sure about RacingPost though, they are most of the times terrible but they had BDM performance somewhat right, in the sense that it was an incredible performance on the day and you'd struggle to find any stayer from the past that could've lived with that.
 
The RPR rating for the Betfair Chase was bollocks, Aughex.

Don't try to confuse yourself or attempt to justify it in any way on their behalf. It was bollocks - it's that simple.

And don't try and set it in a historical context either, or you will further befuddle yourself. BDM would never had gotten to the front/given an uncontested lead/stayed in the race, against the likes of a Denman or a Desert Orchid........or even a One Man, or a Master Oats.....or a half-dozen others I could name if I was so inclined.

Write it off as a 100% unreliable event, because that is the sum total of what it is. That's what RPR should have done, but they went with a huge figure, because they're muppets. Don't fall into the same trap.
 
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I think your being too dismissive Grassy NTD conducting some more tests on BDM so he could still yet be a world beater.

Personally I'd test his sat nav so he can find his way back to Haydock.
 
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