2018 Gold Cuppin'

It's not just the Racing Post that's having trouble with Bristol De Mai, so are the official handicappers.

He went into the Peter Marsh Chase last January rated 154 and was bumped up to 166. By the time of the Betfair Chase he had slid back down to 160. They then put him up to 173 but already he was dropped again to 167 after Kempton.

It's fair to say that official ratings shouldn't normally jump around like that.
 
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Saw something other day that Nicky Henderson has a trick up his sleeve for Might Bite and the Gold Cup.
Blinkers? Cheekpieces?

Won't make a difference, they'll all be off the bridle taking the 3rd last whilst Might Bite will be in a canter approaching the second last.
 
Double J said:
Saw something other day that Nicky Henderson has a trick up his sleeve for Might Bite and the Gold Cup.
Blinkers? Cheekpieces?

Won't make a difference, they'll all be off the bridle taking the 3rd last whilst Might Bite will be in a canter approaching the second last.
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a sidescreen to hide the walkway back to the stables
 
Danny said:
I think your being too dismissive Grassy NTD conducting some more tests on BDM so he could still yet be a world beater.

Personally I'd test his sat nav so he can find his way back to Haydock.
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Get over it, Danny.

He is a high-class staying chaser on bottomless ground at a flat track, but he is otherwise no better than smart. He is as far removed from a world-beater as you can get, and will never, ever be one. Don't waste your time and money waiting for it to happen.
 
Grasshopper said:
Get over it, Danny.

He is a high-class staying chaser on bottomless ground at a flat track, but he is otherwise no better than smart. He is as far removed from a world-beater as you can get, and will never, ever be one. Don't waste your time and money waiting for it to happen.
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'twas sarcasm grass referring to Nigel Twiston Davies's refusal to accept that in all likelyhood outside of Haydock that the horse is probably just a bit **** !
 
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Grey said:
It's not just the Racing Post that's having trouble with Bristol De Mai, so are the official handicappers.

He went into the Peter Marsh Chase last January rated 154 and was bumped up to 166. By the time of the Betfair Chase he had slid back down to 160. They then put him up to 173 but already he was dropped again to 167 after Kempton.

It's fair to say that official ratings shouldn't normally jump around like that.
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Agreed, Art, but it rather makes my point for me.

When a horse is inconsistent, or only shows form in a very narrow window, then a degree of circumspection is needed. I don't particularly have an issue with the OH, or Timeform or anyone else, struggling to rate BDM. At least those other agencies have guessed, but kept a degree of perspective i.e. rated it around the level for the race, and no more.

My issue is with the lack of circumspection adopted by RPR, in awarding their fantasist 185. It was so obviously a moody race - something that should have been taken into account by RPR, and whoever checks the ratings before they are published - that it should never even have been in the running for an exalted rating. That the Post were happy to publish it and stand behind it, speaks volumes about the state of the rag, imo.
 
Twister's horses are in shocking form so if the ground was bottomless on Gold Cup day (unlikely) then I suppose he'd still have a squeak - if the yard had turned the corner - but while Twister is as bullish as they come, it's surely only a matter of time before he gives up on this one's chances and realizes there's another horse in his yard with a much better chance and that it's 4 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree this year, with the National weights already being published prior to the Gold Cup.
 
wilsonl said:
Twister's horses are in shocking form so if the ground was bottomless on Gold Cup day (unlikely) then I suppose he'd still have a squeak - if the yard had turned the corner - but while Twister is as bullish as they come, it's surely only a matter of time before he gives up on this one's chances and realizes there's another horse in his yard with a much better chance and that it's 4 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree this year, with the National weights already being published prior to the Gold Cup.
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First thing I said when I saw Bristol plodding up the hill on Saturday....

"Unleash the Lion"
 
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granger said:
No Coney Island or Road to Respect
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I saw someone else asking about Coney Island plans I'm sure I've read somewhere the plan is the Ascot Chase and then on to Cheltenham so he's going to run into Top Notch good luck with that project !
 
Coney Island not yet absolutely confirmed for Ryanair, and Gold Cup is still an option, I think - depending on how he goes at Ascot.
 
Grasshopper said:
Agreed, Art, but it rather makes my point for me.

When a horse is inconsistent, or only shows form in a very narrow window, then a degree of circumspection is needed. I don't particularly have an issue with the OH, or Timeform or anyone else, struggling to rate BDM. At least those other agencies have guessed, but kept a degree of perspective i.e. rated it around the level for the race, and no more.

My issue is with the lack of circumspection adopted by RPR, in awarding their fantasist 185. It was so obviously a moody race - something that should have been taken into account by RPR, and whoever checks the ratings before they are published - that it should never even have been in the running for an exalted rating. That the Post were happy to publish it and stand behind it, speaks volumes about the state of the rag, imo.
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We're completely agreed on the fatuous rating the RP came up with for Bristol, I was the one who raised it here.

But the others also got carried away, to a lesser degree. The OH has obviously reconsidered his rating since Haydock because normally he wouldn't be so quick to drop a horse.
 
I'd be thinking he's going Gold Cup, i'd doubt he'll beat Top Notch at Ascot and as such I think they'd rather throw him in the Gold cup than go to the Ryan Air to re-oppose.
 
I'm happy to take BDM's Haydock run as very high class form. I wouldn't have a problem with a rating of around 180+ for it.

The time of the race backs up the collateral form figure.

Whether he can reproduce it anywhere else or on different ground is the question.

Having now watched the Gold Cup a few more times I'd say this about his run there:

He made slight mistakes at a few of the early fences before getting more fluent for about a mile. He was hard on the steel five out and on the heels of the leaders. He lost a lot of ground and momentum with a shuddering blunder four out. He followed it up with another mistake three out, losing more ground and momentum. Despite this he managed to pass a couple again turning for home and was responding for hard riding going to the last where his worst blunder of the race saw him nearly unship Jacob. Despite this he was staying on again up the hill.

I do think he'd have been fourth at worst without the last-fence blunder. What the previous mistakes cost him is harder to quantify. They might, aggregated, have cost him the race.

One post-race comment on Saturday rang a bell - that maybe he is an Autumn horse.

It might be a wee bit like the situation with Highland Lodge. He is a lot better round Aintree than anywhere else so does his master rating derive from the best form he's capable of, ie at Aintree, or his best form elsewhere?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm happy to take BDM's Haydock run as very high class form. I wouldn't have a problem with a rating of around 180+ for it.

The time of the race backs up the collateral form figure.

Whether he can reproduce it anywhere else or on different ground is the question.

Having now watched the Gold Cup a few more times I'd say this about his run there:

He made slight mistakes at a few of the early fences before getting more fluent for about a mile. He was hard on the steel five out and on the heels of the leaders. He lost a lot of ground and momentum with a shuddering blunder four out. He followed it up with another mistake three out, losing more ground and momentum. Despite this he managed to pass a couple again turning for home and was responding for hard riding going to the last where his worst blunder of the race saw him nearly unship Jacob. Despite this he was staying on again up the hill.

I do think he'd have been fourth at worst without the last-fence blunder. What the previous mistakes cost him is harder to quantify. They might, aggregated, have cost him the race.

One post-race comment on Saturday rang a bell - that maybe he is an Autumn horse.

It might be a wee bit like the situation with Highland Lodge. He is a lot better round Aintree than anywhere else so does his master rating derive from the best form he's capable of, ie at Aintree, or his best form elsewhere?
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Imo, Colin Tizzard's leaning toward the National is a tacit admission that the horse needs a slog; a view supported by both his Haydock and CGC runs.
Whether he'll ever get one against top class opposition is a moot point, but I doubt we'll ever see him fulfil your lofty opinion pf him.
 
reet hard said:
Imo, Colin Tizzard's leaning toward the National is a tacit admission that the horse needs a slog; a view supported by both his Haydock and CGC runs.
Whether he'll ever get one against top class opposition is a moot point, but I doubt we'll ever see him fulfil your lofty opinion pf him.
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Typo, Reet?
 
Leopatdstown is yielding in places right now with little or no rain forecast for the area over the coming days. He’d get nothing like his prefered hock deep ground at Leopardstown.


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