2018 Gold Cuppin'

Desert Orchid said:
With SDR blowing up three out it only showed that Native River stays better than Cloudy Dream.

My money went on SDR yesterday afternoon but later this morning I saw Nicholls describe him as likely to look a bit burly so expectations were lowered a tad.

People prepared to write off SDR based on that should think of Edwulf's comeback run just three or four weeks before he won the Irish Gold Cup.
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Was badly in need of the run today but if he goes to the festival it will surely be as a social runner.
 
I really don't know about that, Luke.

He wasn't beaten far last year when the National was clearly the main aim.

I genuinely suspect Sam T-D got off him last year and said to Nicholls he could have won if he'd been seriously aimed at the race. How else do we explain his not even being entered in the National this year? I really do think if he was a social runner PN and STD wouldn't have been so quick to contradict the owner's claim that Bryony Frost would ride him in the Gold Cup. The fact that Sam T-D was immediately confirmed as the rider tells us that he is Nicholls's main hope. That, by definition, says he ain't no social runner.
 
I can’t agree, DO.

I think you maybe give the yard too much respect, based on past glories.

Simple fact is - for whatever reason - Nicholls no longer gets the quality of horse he used to, and the suggestion that SDR could have won the last Gold Cup if trained differently, is not only highly subjective, it is completely unsustainable on any known line of form.
 
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It’s always good to have the alternative argument put forward. It makes you question your own methods and stops you just accepting the general perception. Sometimes you get a couple of decent judges in the media saying the same thing and all of a sudden that becomes an often repeated ‘fact’. I hate that.

However DO there’s also such a thing as confirmation bias and it’s rife in punters. Changing your mind is absolutely necessary in this game. Loyalty is worth nothing. SDR may have a race in him somewhere down the line but it’s never a Gold Cup.


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PN has only a 17% strike rate over hurdles this year NJH 33% so the future isn't looking great.
He's doing well money wise 110K only behind NIcky

When you see Silviniaco Conti's owner having horses elsewhere and zero with PN after winning the KG for him you can't help but wonder why?
 
Grasshopper said:
... and the suggestion that SDR could have won the last Gold Cup if trained differently, is not only highly subjective, it is completely unsustainable on any known line of form.
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It is indeed subjective but it's an opinion borne of years of experience of crunching numbers. The numbers tell me last year's Gold Cup ended up not being that great a race. Indeed it was very ordinary. SDR wasn't given a hard time in the race and wasn't beaten far despite giving up the outside to no-one. I don't claim to be good at - or even able to - reading Nicholls but having backed SDR ew for the race I was a tad disappointed more wasn't asked of him at the time. Trying to weigh everything up I concluded that the horse was being campaigned in the light of previous fragility and with his having a good handicap mark the value of the National was maybe the horse's big chance of a last hurrah and if he came out of Aintree well then they cold think about the following season's Gold Cup.

When I re-viewed last year's Gold Cup the other week I'd forgotten how fluently SDR jumped all through the race. I didn't notice a single mistake, which was unlike the horse that should have won the Hennessy. Yesterday I think he maybe fiddled one fence on the way round before tiring from two out and apart from that he again jumped fluently. At least he didn't have a hard race.

As for unsustainable form lines, I'd argue last year's Gold Cup run is strong evidence but it is of course subjective.

However, as a hurdler his OR was 165 and he was favourite for the Stayers' Hurdle. At the time Nicholls, with Denman and Kauto Star fresh in the mind, said he regarded SDR as a potential "superstar" over fences. I admit that isn't a form line but if Stoute said he reckoned a 2yo was going to be a "superstar" as a 3yo or 4yo who wouldn't want to take notice of a remark like that? From the man who trained Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded, etc, etc?

He won the Mildmay Novice Chase easing down by 15 lengths. Two runs later he was 9/2f for the Hennessy off 163. He blundered his chance away that day but was trying to give 8lbs to Smad Place who went up to 168 for winning it, 24lbs to Theatre Guide (139) who went up to 150 for winning the RP Trophy by ten lengths off the same mark, 16lbs to First Lieutenant (147) who went up to 160 for finishing a half-length second to Don Poli in the Lexus next time out.

Yet SDR was 9/2f to beat them? I'm not saying he would have beaten them without that blunder but it cost him plenty as it was seven out just as the race was hotting up. But even if he'd only managed to dead-heat for third with First Lieutenant he could be rated 176.
 
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Tanlic said:
PN has only a 17% strike rate over hurdles this year NJH 33% so the future isn't looking great.
He's doing well money wise 110K only behind NIcky

When you see Silviniaco Conti's owner having horses elsewhere and zero with PN after winning the KG for him you can't help but wonder why?
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Chris Giles is putting money back into the yard. Sullivan has gone to Willie and Nicky after originally pulling out of the game completely and losing Buveir along the way.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It is indeed subjective but it's an opinion borne of years of experience of crunching numbers. The numbers tell me last year's Gold Cup ended up not being that great a race. Indeed it was very ordinary. SDR wasn't given a hard time in the race and wasn't beaten far despite giving up the outside to no-one. I don't claim to be good at - or even able to - reading Nicholls but having backed SDR ew for the race I was a tad disappointed more wasn't asked of him at the time. Trying to weigh everything up I concluded that the horse was being campaigned in the light of previous fragility and with his having a good handicap mark the value of the National was maybe the horse's big chance of a last hurrah and if he came out of Aintree well then they cold think about the following season's Gold Cup.

When I re-viewed last year's Gold Cup the other week I'd forgotten how fluently SDR jumped all through the race. I didn't notice a single mistake, which was unlike the horse that should have won the Hennessy. Yesterday I think he maybe fiddled one fence on the way round before tiring from two out and apart from that he again jumped fluently. At least he didn't have a hard race.

As for unsustainable form lines, I'd argue last year's Gold Cup run is strong evidence but it is of course subjective.

However, as a hurdler his OR was 165 and he was favourite for the Stayers' Hurdle. At the time Nicholls, with Denman and Kauto Star fresh in the mind, said he regarded SDR as a potential "superstar" over fences. I admit that isn't a form line but if Stoute said he reckoned a 2yo was going to be a "superstar" as a 3yo or 4yo who wouldn't want to take notice of a remark like that? From the man who trained Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded, etc, etc?

He won the Mildmay Novice Chase easing down by 15 lengths. Two runs later he was 9/2f for the Hennessy off 163. He blundered his chance away that day but was trying to give 8lbs to Smad Place who went up to 168 for winning it, 24lbs to Theatre Guide (139) who went up to 150 for winning the RP Trophy by ten lengths off the same mark, 16lbs to First Lieutenant (147) who went up to 160 for finishing a half-length second to Don Poli in the Lexus next time out.

Yet SDR was 9/2f to beat them? I'm not saying he would have beaten them without that blunder but it cost him plenty as it was seven out just as the race was hotting up. But even if he'd only managed to dead-heat for third with First Lieutenant he could be rated 176.
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SDR was beaten fair-and-square in the Gold Cup. The reason he was kept to the outside throughout, is because he has always been an iffy jumper. The chosen route kept him out of trouble, and far from being a negative, I'd say it was the only way to ride him, to ensure he didn't throw his chance away through making errors. It is a fact of his race-record, that he has never won a chase of any description, with double-digit runners in the race.

As far as last year's Gold Cup is concerned, he never threatened at any stage, and whilst only beaten 6.5L, that's as close as he was ever going to come. The only way you could have him any nearer, is if you think he was under-trained for the race, and that's the wholly-subjective bit.

I place no stock in Nicholls description of him as a potential "superstar", because I recall him saying the same thing about Aux Ptit Soins after he won the Coral Cup, before he went onto achieve very little thereafter. It's quite common for horses to be bought out of France, and pleasantly-surprise their UK/Irish connections in their first race 'over here'. They are only getting to know the horse at that stage, and it's just not that unusual for them to use the old canard "Could be anything", at that stage of their careers.

Clearly, SDR has achieved a deal more than APS ever managed, but Nicholls was self-evidently wrong in his assessment. The horse has won 4 chases in 15 starts - which places him firmly outside the "superstar" bracket, on any reasonably measure.

You cannot use a series of tenuous 'What ifs?" to prop-up a bold-statement like "Would have won the Gold Cup". It's a straw-man argument, and in my view, and you're kidding yourself on a bit, if you genuinely think it's the case. :cool:
 
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TheBear said:
However DO there’s also such a thing as confirmation bias and it’s rife in punters. Changing your mind is absolutely necessary in this game. Loyalty is worth nothing. SDR may have a race in him somewhere down the line but it’s never a Gold Cup.
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Tbh, I've never heard the term 'confirmation bias' so I'm not sure what it could be.

I agree about loyalty to an extent but I will often take out 'sickness insurance' on a horse I've been backing but which might not be a main fancy on a day it might win.

Any loyalty I'm displaying is more to myself than to any trainer or jockey. I do have faith in my own figures but as anyone with more than a passing acquaintance either with me or my figures will attest, I am my own biggest critic and always looking to improve on what I'm doing.

Before that Hennessy I actually wrote:
I took 16/1 (now 6/1) Bobs Worth (finished 6th) after his reappearance run. I’m still thinking of laying off at the shorter price. The bottom line is that if he’s anywhere near back he’s a good thing but I see the commercial firms are dissing the Wetherby race.

I took 33/1 First Lieutenant (now 20s and shortening) (3rd 20/1) earlier in the week but I do have reservations about the jockey as well as the trainer’s form. However, this time last season they were still talking about the Lexus and the Gold Cup for him so his drop to 147 is quite lenient. He ran perfectly respectably last time in a Grade 2 and after his first run last season his trainer said he “often starts the season slowly” and he went on to be beaten just under 12 lengths in the Lexus. That form is some way below his best (when not beaten far by Silviniaco Conti at Aintree in the Bowl) but it’s enough to leave him clear top in the [ratings] table. If I can lay this bet off at 16s I will.

For this race I usually prefer second-season chasers as they tend to be on the steepest curves but this renewal is a bit shy on them. Saphir Du Rheu, currently off 163, might be a future Gold Cup winner but he’s unlikely to be as good as Big Buck’s who tipped up at the last when in with a chance in this race off 153. Saphir Du Rheu will probably need to be a 173+ horse to have a chance in this. He might be that good but I wouldn’t be prepared to pay good money to find out, not at twice his price.
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There is a serious chance that Might Bite could rip the field apart this year and horses ridden for a place could come through late on -maybe that could be the angle to approach SDR from.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It is indeed subjective but it's an opinion borne of years of experience of crunching numbers. The numbers tell me last year's Gold Cup ended up not being that great a race.
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And it's all there in that sentence for me Maurice. Last years Gold Cup was poor. Surely based on that, and the fact that second season chasers dominate, we should accept that this years winner didn't line up last year in my opinion. Especially when we have a potential superstar on our hands. I really believe that the first three last year have to hope that Might Bite doesn't jump or De Boinville go's for home too early. Even then if Our Duke or Killultagh Vic jump well you couldnt see anything other than Native River or Sizing John getting involved and even then with a battle on their hands

As you know I also like your opinions that run contrary to a market, and I'm always inclined to investigate them further, but in this case I really can't see it at all, despite the repect I have for the figures you keep.

That said I'm wrong more than I'm right so I'd never tell anyone not to back a horse or that it can't win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tbh, I've never heard the term 'confirmation bias' so I'm not sure what it could be
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It's seeing what you want to see and ignoring evidence that doesn't fit in with your theory. As punters we often have to overlook a bad run or two when forming an opinion on any given race but it becomes dangerous when you take a view on a horse which you're willing to follow over the proverbial cliff.
 
Maruco said:
And it's all there in that sentence for me Maurice. Last years Gold Cup was poor. Surely based on that, and the fact that second season chasers dominate, we should accept that this years winner didn't line up last year in my opinion. Especially when we have a potential superstar on our hands. I really believe that the first three last year have to hope that Might Bite doesn't jump or De Boinville go's for home too early. Even then if Our Duke or Killultagh Vic jump well you couldnt see anything other than Native River or Sizing John getting involved and even then with a battle on their hands.
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Yes, that did occur to me, Maruco. But when I first mentioned SDR in this thread Killultagh Vic wasn't really on the radar and we didn't know if Our Duke was going to be running. The only real threat to last year's form was Might Bite and the old adage says not to be afraid of just one horse.

It also occurred to me that Sam T-D might have said to PN after the National that the horse didn't really take to the fences (although I thought he looked fine for as far as he went) and that he should go for gold next season.

I accept all the ifs buts and maybes and it should be remembered we're not talking about taking a risk with a 6/1 shot. It's a 66/1 shot and I'm trying to build a value portfolio.

I would argue that, for example, BDM last season was a good punt at the prices. I think his form at Haydock this season when he recorded an RPR of 180 (and which appears to have impressed the Timeform sectionalistas too), although no use to me, justifies the punt. I had him down as possibly a top-class horse and he could have won with a clear round while running well below his Haydock form. It should also be remembered that when Blaklion impressed people earlier this season and was mentioned in regard to the Gold Cup NTD was quick to dismiss the idea saying, "We've got the Gold Cup sorted."

I'll check back through the thread once I've posted this as it's only just occurring to me but I don't believe I've actually said SDR will win the Gold Cup, merely that he could have won last year's had he been targeting it seriously. I stand by that. But beating Siaing John a length wouldn't get him near Might Bite's best. But Might Bite might be trying to sign autographs again after the last.
 
What has you so convinced that SDR wasn’t seriously trying to win the Gold Cup last year, DO?

He had a race in late January and another in mid-February, so it’s not like he would have been using the GC for fitness ahead of Aintree. In fact, he ran four times prior to the Gold Cup last season, and if they were so focused on Aintree, they would surely have swerved Cheltenham entirely?

It’s completely counter-intuitive to use the Gold Cup as a prep for anything, because you are going to have a hard-race by default, and there is every chance you will leave your next race behind.

I’m sorry DO, but you appear to have convinced yourself that SDR somehow wasn’t trying last season, and your reasons for suggesting he could/should have won, seem illogical to me. It’s at odds with what I’d normally expect from you, which is rational and sober assessment.

I think you’re maybe down a rabbit-hole with this SDR theory, to be honest.
 
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Grasshopper said:
What has you so convinced that SDR wasn’t seriously trying to win the Gold Cup last year, DO?
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Just the way he was ridden, GH. He gave up the outside to no-one and wasn't brought under serious pressure at any point. In a Gold Cup you expect - if far from pleasing on the eye and I don't like even saying it myself - the jockey to, as Ted Walsh once put it on TV, "tear rashers off them".

Grasshopper said:
He had a race in late January and another in mid-February, so it’s not like he would have been using the GC for fitness ahead of Aintree. In fact, he ran four times prior to the Gold Cup last season, and if they were so focused on Aintree, they would surely have swerved Cheltenham entirely?

It’s completely counter-intuitive to use the Gold Cup as a prep for anything, because you are going to have a hard-race by default, and there is every chance you will leave your next race behind.
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Again going by the way he was ridden, it looked to me like they planned to give him the type of schooling home work and easy wins against lesser opposition can't provide ahead of the National which was worth nearly 50% more in prize money than the Gold Cup. I thought he was ridden to pick up scraps without having too hard a race given his history of relative under-achievement.


Grasshopper said:
I’m sorry DO, but you appear to have convinced yourself that SDR somehow wasn’t trying last season, and your reasons for suggesting he could/should have won, seem illogical to me. It’s at odds with what I’d normally expect from you, which is rational and sober assessment.

I think you’re maybe down a rabbit-hole with this SDR theory, to be honest.
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"Not trying" is maybe a wee bit strong, GH. He did, after all, win along the way. I think he was campaigned with the National as his most serious objective. I backed him in the Gold Cup more from a value angle than anything else. I had a lot more on him for the National.

Looking at my pre-race figures for the Gold Cup last season I see I had SDR on 175 for his old form. I must have that annotated against at least one race at some point in his past but a lot of my older stuff is now up the loft degrading! It will have been the reason I took fancy odds ante-post about him.

I'm flattered by your esteem for my opinions. Maybe you should keep the faith with me :lol:
 
Another 'angle' on the possible value of SDR in the Gold Cup:

Would I fancy him to beat these who are near the top of the market?

Might Bite 3/1 - no, unless he tries to throw it away but I don't think he will.

Native River 6/1 - yes, even after yesterday

Sizing John 6/1 - yes, based on my belief he could have beaten him last year

Killultagh Vic 10/1 - genuinely don't know how good KV is but he'll need to be better than a two-length winner from Edwulf

Road To Respect 10/1 - don't know, haven't checked him out thoroughly

Coney Island 10/1 - likewise

Our Duke 14/1 - maybe not but will he jump round?

Definitly Red - yes, no worries at all

Minella Rocco 20/1 - likewise

And SDR is 100/1 in places!

I suppose if Nicholls comes out tomorrow and says SDR won't go I'll have to accept I've read it all wrong. I don't think he's even entered in the National this season. It looks to me like it's the Gold Cup or bust, which is a wee bit of a surprise given how good Might Bite looked last season. I'd have thought there would need to be a Plan B but there doesn't seem to be.
 
Got as far as Native River who just beat him by 36 lengths/a distance and he's not even fully fit yet............What a crock of shite :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Another 'angle' on the possible value of SDR in the Gold Cup:

Would I fancy him to beat these who are near the top of the market?

Might Bite 3/1 - no, unless he tries to throw it away but I don't think he will.

Native River 6/1 - yes, even after yesterday

Sizing John 6/1 - yes, based on my belief he could have beaten him last year

Killultagh Vic 10/1 - genuinely don't know how good KV is but he'll need to be better than a two-length winner from Edwulf

Road To Respect 10/1 - don't know, haven't checked him out thoroughly

Coney Island 10/1 - likewise

Our Duke 14/1 - maybe not but will he jump round?

Definitly Red - yes, no worries at all

Minella Rocco 20/1 - likewise

And SDR is 100/1 in places!

I suppose if Nicholls comes out tomorrow and says SDR won't go I'll have to accept I've read it all wrong. I don't think he's even entered in the National this season. It looks to me like it's the Gold Cup or bust, which is a wee bit of a surprise given how good Might Bite looked last season. I'd have thought there would need to be a Plan B but there doesn't seem to be.
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Think you’re going deeper down the rabbit-hole, DO. Say hello to Alice for me!
 
I would have to say I agree with some points from both sides. I have to admit that I was fairly impressed with Native River in the way he's done nothing wrong on Saturday and hasn't been pushed too hard which as much as you can ask for leading into a Gold Cup. I think form wise although he's beat Cloudy dream further I'd say the form is probably not that far removed from what Definitely Red did to him at Aintree. The pace there was even slower than at Newbury and as such the distance beaten at Aintree probably flattered him. That's not to say I'd think the horses have equal chances as you'd give Native River plenty for it being first run of the season and another chunk on top re- A gold cup as he's performed there before on better ground and a stronger pace where as Definitely Red has yet to do so.

I sort of made a case for Double Shuffle using similar reasoning to what Des has with Saphir de rheu that the opposition didn't look that strong and that some had had a whole host of problems and question marks about them. However I was doing this before I saw the Irish Trial and before I'd seen Native river make his comeback. The Irish trial in itself didn't worry me too much as I think if KV had stood up and Our Duke hadn't made his mistake then you'd have probably ended up with 4 horses finishing in very close proximity to each other which would indicate there isn't really a superstar amongst them. If you were to take one out of that race then it would probably be Our Duke who had the strongest form in the book prior to it with his Irish Nash run. If you were to take into account that it was really his first run back after having his problems on seasonal debut then there is a good chance Jessie can have him close to peak form on the day and as such he'd be a threat to anything. I'm a bit of a fan of Jessie and as such believe if anyone can revitalise Sizing John for the day it would be her. I'd agree that last years Gold cup wasn't that strong an event but at the end of it you'd have probably given Sizing John a P/+ as he'd probably with lack of experience and age have been able to improve from that for this year. The problem he had over Christmas would certainly dampen enthusiasm as a betting prospect but if Jessie can get him back right then he also represents a threat.

I don't buy the argument that Might Bite is a superstar or that he's been idling in certain races. A horse that idles in front will generally do so all the while. When he was in the process of slaughtering the Kauto Star field he certainly wasn't idling. Nor was he idling on seasonal debut when just doing what he had to do to warm up. What he did last year in the RSA to my mind wasn't idling either he's got distracted yes and tried to run out but that's not Idling. If he'd have kept to a straight line as some have suggested he'd have won probably 10 lengths. To suggest he was idling from some way out doesn't wash with me he set a ferocious gallop and his jump at the last just looked like a tired jump. Despite the ferocious gallop the overall time was fairly slow even allowing for his wobble up the hill which to tells me he's gone too fast. What he did in getting back up to beat Whisper looks amazing and should of been impossible really but given that Whisper had been forced into going at it from a long way out it stands to reason that he was out on his legs by the time he reached the top of the hill. I also think comparing Whispers line of form from that race to the Hennessy line is also flawed for several reasons. Whisper has always been a better horse on a flat track than he has been at Cheltenham. He also Jumped better in the Hennessy than he did in either of his Novice attempts against Might Bite and good jumping can make a huge difference to performance levels. That said anyone crabbing his King George form on the basis of Tea for Twos' performances at either Aintree ( first time up over too short a trip ) , Haydock ( run in a bog ) or his subsequent performance at Cheltenham ( A course where he's never run well, also run in bad ground) is barking up the wrong tree. He obviously has run nowhere near to form on those occasions and its always best to put a line through those sorts of runs. He's better judged on his runs in the KG last year and at Aintree when winning the Bowl. I'd say the ratings for Might Bite and Double shuffle are in the right ball park based on that and don't see really what other choice the handicapper had than to award those or something similar.

I can see why Des has made a case for Saphir de Rheu but I think I'm with the general consensus that he may be clutching at straws with this one but at least they are a 100/1 straws. My view on him is that he came up short in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. My view of Staying Hurdlers is they are the poorest of the Grd1 animals. He has come up short last year and I have no doubt he'd do the same again. I'm never averse to taking a pop on a long shot myself and the Gold cup is as good as any race in which to have a go at there always seems to be something there or thereabouts at a huge price that went largely unconsidered. Just off the top of my head I can remember horses like Go Ballistic, The Giant Bolster amongst a host of big priced ones that finished behind Best Mate and I think I even remember Lake Kariba going close to the places one year at over 100/1. Personally though I'd rather take a chance on one that has yet to come up short in the race. Obviously Double Shuffle is my pick this year and I still think he's the best value in the race but I have to admit the opposition is starting to look a a fair bit stronger than it was a couple of weeks ago.

That said my overall view is that there isn't a world beater amongst the field and they are a bunch of horses high 160's bordering low 170's and in all honesty come the day I don't think there will be a lot between them. If anything is to win by a long way then it will be because others have under performed for some reason.
 
Danny said:
What he did last year in the RSA to my mind wasn't idling either he's got distracted yes and tried to run out but that's not Idling. If he'd have kept to a straight line as some have suggested he'd have won probably 10 lengths. To suggest he was idling from some way out doesn't wash with me he set a ferocious gallop and his jump at the last just looked like a tired jump.
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If he was tired he wouldn't have found as much when Marinero came upsides.
 
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