2019 Grand National

Tanlic said:
Prediction........First woman ever to ride the winner of the Grand National Rachael Blackmore April 2019.............
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I don't usually take much notice of a) Racing in Ireland (basically because I'm an awful judge of it) and b) jockeys surrounded by hype.

I have however caught a few races where Blackmore has ridden. A couple of finishes in particular where I thought "That's unbelievable" the girl is a beast !

Excellent jockey and the more I see the more I like.
 
Strictly on ratings, the top 5 rated in the National appear to be Bristol de Mai 11-10 Elegant Escape 10-13 Valtor 10-11 Tiger Roll 10-10 Sub Lieutenant 10-9 If weights are done by current marks then 10 stone would be 149. Anyone disagree ?

Asking for a friend :whistle:
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Strictly on ratings, the top 5 rated in the National appear to be Bristol de Mai 11-10 Elegant Escape 10-13 Valtor 10-11 Tiger Roll 10-10 Sub Lieutenant 10-9 If weights are done by current marks then 10 stone would be 149. Anyone disagree ?

Asking for a friend :whistle:
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Yes and no.

Current top 5 on official ratings:

BDM 173
Elegant Escape 162
Valtor 160
Go Conquer 157
Blaklion 156

I'd half-expect BDM to be reduced to 170 to tempt them to run him (off 11-10 top weight) so the 10-0 mark would be 146 but they might be more lenient to BDM to really tempt connections which would bring the floor down again.

Connections might decide not to risk him at all so if Elegant Escape (162) ends up with 11-10 the 10-0 mark will be 138.
 
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I'm sure there have been plenty, especially back when so many were running from out of the handicap but when was the last time the previous year's winner got the chance to run off as light a weight as 10-10 ?
 
wilsonl said:
I'm sure there have been plenty, especially back when so many were running from out of the handicap but when was the last time the previous year's winner got the chance to run off as light a weight as 10-10 ?
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Silver Birch missed the following year but ran off 11-0 the next time. That's as close as I can see. I'm not convinced Tiger Roll will get to run off 10-10, though.

I expect BDM will be taken out unless they want to use him to keep half a normal field out of the weights to help something like Blaklion.

Edit
Earth Summit got to race off 11-0 too.
 
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Twister's a strange one though and I wouldn't put anything past him. Notwithstanding the fact Sandown is likely to be called off, he's declared the twice raced (over here) 4yo Torpillo to run against the reigning, dual champion hurdler on Saturday.
 
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The following are at least 6lbs higher on RPRs than ORs but the list doesn't include Irish horses as they're not included at the RP site.

From the top down:

Go Conquer 6
Yala Enki 6
Sizing Codelco 8
Traffic Fluide 7
Master Dee 7
Ramses De Teillee 7
Tea For Two 6
Step Back 6
Vieux Lion Rouge 6
Vintage Clouds 8
Captain Redbeard 8
Impulsive Star 6
Milansbar 13
Kilcrea Vale 8
Splash Of Ginge 11
Looking Well 9

That covers the ORs down to 133 so from Looking Well up to Impulsive Star (139) they're unlikely to make the cut, hence the red type.
 
Danny said:
Would've needed to go up a stone in the weights before the 12th of Feb to even get in GG.

Imo the horse has been terribley campaigned thus far and could well have won events this term if the right entries to take up had been chosen.
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Yes agree about the campaign , last race at Cheltenham was a waste. They were very keen though. I suspect they will buy something as SWC wants a ride.
 
Been pointed out to me that the Rooneys, who no longer run horses at Cheltenham on welfare grounds, have three horses entered in the GN :whistle:
 
That's more than Henderson has.

Interesting that each year he seems keen to finally win it and yet this year he has Valtor (needs to step up markedly on his last performance) and Kilcrea Vale who has been round one circuit twice before, finishing the shorter distance off well both times and was earmarked up as a National horse by the trainer at the start of the season.

He wasn't one that would have immediately stood out to me but the more I look at him the more I like him.

His mark of 137 makes him unlikely to get in as it stands but as I see it, he needs to have won a chase over a minimum of 3 miles (if my memory serves me) and despite spending most of his career over fences at the intermediate trip, Nicky ran him over 3 miles last time and has him entered for the (unlikely to go ahead) 3 mile chase at Sandown on Saturday. A good perforance between now and mid Feb and he should go up just enough.

It's speculative to say the least but I'm going to have my first AP nibble at him at 140+ on the exchanges and will back him wherever he runs next in the hope that Nicky is targetting the penalty.
 
Just needs to have been in the first four at a minimum two miles seven and a half furlongs or more at any time during the horse's career, plus must have run a race over fences in current season up to March 19th.
 
2019 Grand National (thread now includes entries)

Of course. Rule The World was a maiden over fences
 
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Not sure about the Nash, but backed wakanda & Ballydine for the Peter Marsh, the latter bigger bet@ 16s was cruising thru the race until a mistake 2 r 3 out sent him back a few places but fought well to pull back to 3rd and still gaining. Backed it 14s on this AP

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I've taken another nibble at Noble Endeavor at 50/1 ew with 5 places on offer with B365.

I see he's still in the Denman this weekend and still holds an entry in the Gold Cup. He could be a Rough Quest/Miinnehoma type: run a nice race in the Gold Cup to get him ready. :p

My thinking was simply that I'm off to Spain later this week and if NE ran well in the Denman he might shorten up again but it's just this second dawned on me that the weights aren't out until next week so they won't be wanting to blow his cover at Newbury. An easy jog round to get his mark down an extra pound or two maybe...
 
One For Arthur cannot run in the Trial this weekend as under the new conditions applied to declarations, i.e not having been vaccinated within the past six months, he is not eligible.
 
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Just looking down that list it strikes me as we could potentially have the highest quality National that I can remember.

Also Bristol De Mai running or not changes the shape of race significantly.
 
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