2020 Betfair Hurdle Newbury Saturday February 8th

Slim said:
Barry doesn't do low weights any more and Frank Berry is playing mind games jocking up Coleman. Be in no doubt that Ciel De Neige just ******* wins...
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I bit the bullet last night and got much better prices, Mullins won’t send one for nothing. Hoping Icy Tentacles at play.

Stuck a decent bet on Not So Sleepy 6 places as well
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've gone in again on Pic D'Orhy at 25/1.

It's partly the notion of maybe missing out on that price when I was happy to take 14/1 a couple of weeks ago.

Before that run I think either Paul Kealy or Tom Segal suggested backing it ahead of it hacking up and going to favouritism for this.
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Applause. Remulic, Zanza making it a forum finish.

Congrats
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've gone in again on Pic D'Orhy at 25/1.

It's partly the notion of maybe missing out on that price when I was happy to take 14/1 a couple of weeks ago.

Before that run I think either Paul Kealy or Tom Segal suggested backing it ahead of it hacking up and going to favouritism for this.
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Some guess, others know :)

But I'm fuckin pisssed at missing out on the 33/1 :lol:
 
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The winner went off 100 on Betfair

Aidan Coleman will never ride another Willie Mullins horse again.
 
Not the first time I’ve been fucked by a better handicapped horse. Well done to those on him, I wasn’t
 
I look forward to Tuesday to see what the handicapper does with the form. Between the unsatisfactory start, one of the favourites pulling up early, another not getting to lead because of the standing start, a few coming down at the last and virtually a five-way photo at the line, I can't see him raising the winner any more than 3lbs or so.

I can see a few of these running well at Cheltenham.
 
Slim said:
The winner went off 100 on Betfair

Aidan Coleman will never ride another Willie Mullins horse again.
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BSP Returns for the race.

Pic D'Orhy 110
Ciel De Neige 8.0
Remilic 478.39
Sir Valentine 35.09

With all the extra place nonsense compressing the prices with the bookmakers the exchange is the place to bet these races. Imagine trying to price that race to 101% margin.
 
Nicholls quoted on the ATR site:

[FONT=&quot]He added: “Harry (Cobden) said that (about running him in the Champion Hurdle). He is going to be in the mid-150s now and that is not far off being Champion Hurdle quality. I’ll have to see what Johnny says – it is a lot of money to supplement, but he has won a few quid.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“This horse might have the boot to travel really well in it.”

A mark in the mid-150s would imply a rise of 8-10lbs for today. I can't really see that happening but I wouldn't be surprised if that's pretty much where they rated him at home.

Also, I'd still be against a 5yo in the Champion Hurdle. If I'm right about a small (3-5lbs) rise, I could see PD'O being competitive in either the County or Coral Cup.[/FONT]
 
Winner could easily get 8lbs. 2nd will gets 5-6lbs.

Oakley might be one to watch back. Got involved in some scrimmaging on the first circuit and could well have finished closer.
 
The starter fucked that race. Can feel short changed on a few of them in their. I’d like to make that exuse for Not So Sleepy but can’t unfortunately.

Suprised Ciel De Neige was so prominent throughout, especially making the running for a short time. Can’t have been the plan, the start long term could have actually affected him.
 
It was an awful start. As they jigjogged to the start, pretty much in a perfect line, I was shouting 'Let them go, ya fanny,' at the starter (who obviously couldn't hear me from 400 miles away).

It's never easy trying to keep tabs on several runners [that you've backed] in a race like that. I didn't even notice Remiluc in a clear second until the hit the back straight. But my eye kept being drawn to Ciel De Neige. I thought Coleman gave it a brilliant positional ride. It beat everything else that raced near or in front of it.

Staying wide would have been my only criticism of Cobden on the winner. I genuinely do not like to see anything I've backed going too far off the inside rail. Every horse-width away from the rail on the bends is a length lost per circuit.

(I'm not a great fan of Skelton as a stylish jockey but he seldom cedes ground.)

I'm just about to check past handicapping decisions regarding winners of this race. I'll post my findings.
 
YearWinnerGoingORWinning
margin		Distances 1-4Distances 1-6New OR (+)
2020Pic D’OrhyGd146¾12
2019Al Dancer*GS1413¼6¼11½152 (9)
2018Kalashn’Sft1414½ 21½ 23¾ 154 (13)
2017BallyandySft135¾8¾14¼147 (12)
2016AgrapartHy137111316¼150 (13)
2015Violet D’Sft13231314¾141 (9)
2014Splash of GHy1341¾45½142 (8)
2013MTOYSft14958½15¼162 (13)
2012ZarkandarGS1511¼35160 (9)
2011Recess’ P’Sft134shd1½3¼137 (3)
2010GMOOHGS1351¾8½10¼150 (15)

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* at Ascot

The table format hasn't formatted across exactly as I'd hoped but the info is all there.

Yesterday's was the closest overall finish in recent history. If 2011 is any guide my idea of 3lbs wouldn't be far off the mark but 2012 & 2014 suggest more.

Yesterday's finish was even tighter than last week's Ladbrokes at Leopardstown, for which the winner went up 8lbs, the second and third both up 4lbs.

On that basis, maybe 6lbs will be the hit for yesterday's winner.
 
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You have to factor in that the 2nd raced off his Irish mark and the handicapper has to put him up at least 5lbs or so. The winner is clearly a classy type so he is getting 8lb minimum. As usual the handicapper will back fit it from there.
 
Slim said:
You have to factor in that the 2nd raced off his Irish mark and the handicapper has to put him up at least 5lbs or so. The winner is clearly a classy type so he is getting 8lb minimum. As usual the handicapper will back fit it from there.
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Handicap marks for Irish horses running here are arrived at independently by the UK handicapper, at least that's been the case for many years. If the marks are the same both sides of the water it's either coincidence or both handicappers are agreeing marks.

We'll probably know more come Cheltenham.

To be honest, it isn't the kind of thing I've been keeping track of lately.

I wonder if Remiluc might be the key to the handicapper's assessment of the form. He might say a 100/1 shot was third and another (Tamaroc) not far behind, so the start etc must have made it a freak race and not worth much kudos.

Then again he might look at the huge allowances he gave Remiluc for his absence and poor reappearance and say those were mistakes which were nearly 'punished'.

We'll find out on Tuesday, either way, but I'll be actively looking for his thoughts on the matter at the BHA site on Tuesday morning.
 
Slim said:
Winner could easily get 8lbs. 2nd will gets 5-6lbs.

Oakley might be one to watch back. Got involved in some scrimmaging on the first circuit and could well have finished closer.
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Yes looked like he hit a flat spot but must have finished fast to get 7th. 40s with a couple of firms for the County which seems a big price. The Cheltenham handicap entries should be out in the next week or two.
 
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Another element I really should have included in the comparison table was the RPR given to the winners. It might have added a degree of corroboration to the official assessment.

To be honest, I can't be arsed going back through all the history again but I did notice them as I was going through the exercise.

RPRs for the race were largely in line with the new ORs of the winners. Where the handicapper went high so did RPRs, likewise with low.

RPR only gave PD'O 150 for yesterday (+4). The second and third +3.
 
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