2020 Betfair Hurdle Newbury Saturday February 8th

Marb said:
Yes looked like he hit a flat spot but must have finished fast to get 7th. 40s with a couple of firms for the County which seems a big price. The Cheltenham handicap entries should be out in the next week or two.
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I think if they dropped him in grade slightly he would be really good bet. The Swinton Hurdle would be a good target.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Another element I really should have included in the comparison table was the RPR given to the winners. It might have added a degree of corroboration to the official assessment.

To be honest, I can't be arsed going back through all the history again but I did notice them as I was going through the exercise.

RPRs for the race were largely in line with the new ORs of the winners. Where the handicapper went high so did RPRs, likewise with low.

RPR only gave PD'O 150 for yesterday (+4). The second and third +3.
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Ciel De Neige would be an unpenalised winner with anything less than 5lb.
 
A big positive from the race, I should add, is that it was run 8.45s faster than the novices' race won by Chantry House although PDO was carrying 3lbs less. That's 40lbs, give or take.
 
Slim said:
Ciel De Neige would be an unpenalised winner with anything less than 5lb.
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I think any of the front six would be too.

Although I'm speculating about what the official handicapper might do, I have no doubt yesterday's race amounts to very hot form.
 
Just a question DO, the start clearly did for 2 of the more fancied runners. (Could be more haven't watched a replay).
Would that not bring the form down?
 
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tiggers1972 said:
Just a question DO, the start clearly did for 2 of the more fancied runners. (Could be more haven't watched a replay).
Would that not bring the form down?
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It's an angle I mooted earlier in the thread, tiggers.

I honestly thought the 17lb rise for NSS killed its chances but future events might prove me wrong. Never Adapt might be a different matter but I assume she'll be out of action for a while so we won't know for a while. Depending on how serious her injury is, I wouldn't be surprised if she was put away for a recovery mission in 12 months.

The start didn't help anyone, that's for sure (unless inconveniencing some is construed as helping others).
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Pic D'Orhy +8
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Effectively +6, since it was 2lbs 'wrong' at the weights having been dropped 2lbs since the weights came out.

Remiluc is up 4lbs and Ciel De Neige has gone up 3lbs. I imagine connections of the latter will be smelling blood in the bookmies' pitches next time the money is down, as Slim suggests in #102 above.
 
Desert Orchid said:
YearWinnerGoingORWinning
margin		Distances 1-4Distances 1-6New OR (+)
2020Pic D’OrhyGd146¾12
2019Al Dancer*GS1413¼6¼11½152 (9)
2018Kalashn’Sft1414½21½23¾154 (13)
2017BallyandySft135¾8¾14¼147 (12)
2016AgrapartHy137111316¼150 (13)
2015Violet D’Sft13231314¾141 (9)
2014Splash of GHy1341¾45½142 (8)
2013MTOYSft14958½15¼162 (13)
2012ZarkandarGS1511¼35160 (9)
2011Recess’ P’Sft134shd1½3¼137 (3)
2010GMOOHGS1351¾8½10¼150 (15)

<tbody>
</tbody>
* at Ascot

The table format hasn't formatted across exactly as I'd hoped but the info is all there.

Yesterday's was the closest overall finish in recent history. If 2011 is any guide my idea of 3lbs wouldn't be far off the mark but 2012 & 2014 suggest more.

Yesterday's finish was even tighter than last week's Ladbrokes at Leopardstown, for which the winner went up 8lbs, the second and third both up 4lbs.

On that basis, maybe 6lbs will be the hit for yesterday's winner.
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The emphasis on the conclusion is mine.

I imagine all connections will be very happy with the new ratings. All of the horses should remain extremely competitive in top level handicaps with the prospect of a top 3lb claimer negating the rises.
 
Slim said:
Wasn't Chantry House's race just really slow.
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That would be my conclusion too. Watch out somewhere along the way for somebody arguing otherwise!

I haven't seen any sectional analysis or comparison so far. I might have a bash at it today as I have a little bit of time on my hands but obviously there's no way PD'O is a 170-dd horse at this stage. I would anticipate the Betfair race being a long way ahead of the novice race four out and the gap closing up the straight. The Betfair was also a standing start otherwise the time would have been even faster.
 
The following is very rough as the on-screen clock at the SL site doesn't do decimal points and I've only measured from the first hurdle (H1) but it might give an indication of how each race unfolded.


<tbody>
[TD="align: center"]Sect[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Nov (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bfair (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Diff (s)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Dist (L)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Cum*[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H1-H2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]61[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]55[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H2-H3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H3-H4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]18[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]17[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H4-H5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H5-H6[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]59[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]57[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H6-H7[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-5[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H7-H8[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]H8-WP[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]24[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-15[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]30[/TD]

[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]

</tbody>
*Cumulative

The front runners in both races were still well there at the last, suggesting neither race went over-fast and clearly the novice race was much more slowly run so we should expect the leaders not to fade.

However, the pace setters in the big race didn't fade either as Highly Prized was bang there when brought down at the last. I think JJON Jr deserves credit for getting the fractions close to spot on but I don't have enough accurate detail to quantify things beyond the above.

Chantry House has certainly sped up the run-in. I imagine he'll get a big sectional mark-up from the likes of Simon Rowlands.

The Betfair has clearly started much faster and kept the pace up more persistently through the race with the novice race, as I suspected, closing down all the way up the straight but still a long way behind at the line.
 
Slim said:
I think if they dropped him in grade slightly he would be really good bet. The Swinton Hurdle would be a good target.
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Swinton Hurdle in May is a long way off.

Imperial Cup at Sandown just before the Festival would be a logical target for Oakley.

He reminds me of when I really thought Mohaayed was a horse to follow.

Turned out I was bit premature as I gave up on Mohaayed a few months before he won the County at a big price (Danny tipped him months before. One of the greatist shouts I have ever seen on a forum).

I really fancied him the year before in the same race off a lighter weight when he finished 7th.

So I will give Oakely another go on another day.

It was his first go a big pot and he didn't run too badly. 7th in a 24 runner field. He won't go up too much in the handicap for it either.

The County could be a big ask but the Imperial Cup is definately worth a try.
 
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Marb said:
Swinton Hurdle in May is a long way off.

Imperial Cup at Sandown just before the Festival would be a logical target for Oakley.

He reminds me of when I really thought Mohaayed was a horse to follow.

Turned out I was bit premature as I gave up on Mohaayed a few months before he won the County at a big price (Danny tipped him months before. One of the greatist shouts I have ever seen on a forum).

I really fancied him the year before in the same race off a lighter weight when he finished 7th.

So I will give Oakely another go on another day.

It was his first go a big pot and he didn't run too badly. 7th in a 24 runner field. He won't go up too much in the handicap for it either.

The County could be a big ask but the Imperial Cup is definately worth a try.
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The County Hurdle will be full of graded horses this year.
 
Yes I think aim for The Imperial which I think he could probably win and just role the dice in the County.

The Imperial is not above his class par.

We will find out if I am right in a few weeks.
 
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Oakley entered in Coral Cup and County Hurdle aswell as The Imperial Cup.

Staying on in the Betfair makes me think he might end up in the Coral Cup.

He is shorter in the betting for the Coral than the County. The bookies know.
 
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