2021 2000 Guineas

Bet 365 14s to 12s on Van Gogh

The 14s was a clearly a token gesture.
 
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I would be looking for evidence that he stays, to be honest.

The dam (Imagine) may have won the Oaks - despite failing to handle the hill, which would be another concern - but I'm not sure American Pharoah would impart a lot of stamina and it was probably a substandard Oaks Imagine won.

I can't help thinking Coolmore will have at least two stronger candidates.

I'm slightly concerned they're talking about bringing High Definition over for the Lingfield trial. Off the top of my head I have no idea which, if any, Coolmore Derby winners came via that route.


PS - shouldn't this debate now switch to the Derby thread?
 
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Thanks, barjon, I haven't read it but I have a Word document with lots of Timeform sectional-related stuff on it, including the formula for mark-ups.
 
Master Of The Seas has been raised 5lbs to 117 for Saturday's near miss. I presume it means Poetic Flare will be raised to 118/119 with Lucky Vega on about 116.

That's on the low side, I think, in the general history of the race.

Edit - just checked the Irish site. PF up to 118 (+9), Lucky Vega 117 (+1).
 
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I can’t recall.which thread you mention AOB using lingfield where high definition is running as a route to derby victory. Anthony van Dyke won at lingfield before his Derby win
 
prince regent said:
I can’t recall.which thread you mention AOB using lingfield where high definition is running as a route to derby victory. Anthony van Dyke won at lingfield before his Derby win
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Thanks, PR. AVD crossed my mind but I didn't get round to checking it. AOB has had five LDT winners going back to 2008 but AVD is the only one to double up at Epsom.

That's a slight negative for me but maybe they just want to be sure he'll handle the track.

I'd rather see High Definition come via a more conventional route for winners from the stable.

(It was probably the Derby thread.)
 
I managed to check out the Guineas card last night.

I usually try to clear my mind of ideas and notions I formed at the time of the race itself and focus on what the numbers throw up but in this case they are coinciding.

There are three most likely scenarios:

1. The race was modest and the winner is worth a rating of 117.
2. The race was slightly less modest and the winner is worth 119.
3. The race is better still but it means the later C&D handicap is very strong form based on comparative times.

In all three cases, they point to its being a substandard renewal; it's just a question of degrees.

For now, I'm going with scenario 1 but will allow in my head for the possibility of either of the other scenarios. (In practice, this just means if in a future race I have MOTS on '117 (+?)' and something else on '117?' I'll favour the former, probably unless there is a huge discrepancy in the prices.)
 
Am I missing something, Master of the Seas 9/2 for the SJP. That's huge

The Bolger m.o is to win as many Guineas as possible so the Godolphin horse will have the edge there and the ground will likely still be too lively for St. Marks.

Surprised MTOS wasn't 9/4 to be honest.
 
I think maybe in a normal year 9/2 about a 2000G winner for the SJP would be interesting but MOTS's current rating wouldn't win most SJPs. Lucky Vega might improve more and who knows what the Irish or French Guineas might throw up.

The chances are that price might hold until much nearer the time, I'd reckon.
 
I've taken 10/1 Battleground for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

He ended up punted into 9/2f for the Guineas at Newmarket so clearly plenty was expected of him. He didn’t handle the track so this should be much better for him, he didn’t have a hard race and he won the Chesham in soft so I’m happy to take out some sickness insurance at 10/1 (4 places, 15/2 for five places with Skybet for the ultra-cautious) and will go in again if he goes longer by Saturday. I presume the Poulains was too soon for Poetic Flare (9/2) so this might be too. I couldn’t back the other Coolmores at short odds so will just stick with Battleground.
 
After receiving 34mm of rain instead of forecast 15mm. Saturdays meeting is in doubt.if today’s rain is more than what’s forecast there’s a problem
i like Battleground. But it’s going to be very soft and that’s not normally a positive for off spring of war front maybe he be best saved for the SJP stakes ar RA
 
prince regent said:
After receiving 34mm of rain instead of forecast 15mm. Saturdays meeting is in doubt.if today’s rain is more than what’s forecast there’s a problem
i like Battleground. But it’s going to be very soft and that’s not normally a positive for off spring of war front maybe he be best saved for the SJP stakes ar RA
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Battleground bled before Newmarket.
 
I know he's not a firm forum favorite but I see Van Gogh is being smashed up for the Guineas tomorrow.
 
I’ve backed Mac Sweeney e/w @ 8s on the basis he’s sure to handle the ground better than most and has a proven liking for the track.

The downsides are jockey bookings - obviously Manning was going to stay loyal to Poetic Flare but Cleary has a 4% strike rate, notwithstanding the fact many of those would have been at biggish prices that is pretty poor by any standards. Also he might be need a bit further than this but he won’t fail for stamina and time may tell he was beaten by a Derby winner in the Derrinstown. He came on plenty from his first run as a 2yo too.
 
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