2022 Arc Thread

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Marb

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Does anyone have early opinions on it?

I am very interested in Alenquer, especially if William Haggas can get him to this race fresh enough, perhaps after some sort of a break after his summer campaign.

He ran in the Arc last year as a three year old where he couldn't get into the places but a really eyecatching piece of form was his win first time out in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last month at the Curragh.

He had the Prince of Wales winner, State Of Rest back in third, while Broome was further down the field. That form looks excellent.

As only a four year old, I believe there is a good chance Alenquer has improved with an extra year in training.

He is entered in all the big group 1 races in the next few months, and while I do not currently know his intended path to the Arc, I suppose 20/1 could look like value if he gets to Longchamp and keeps improving in the meantime as I think he might do.

I will be keeping a close eye on where he races next.
 
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Vadeni looks a superstar to me, i think Hurricane Lane will be placed again, he ran ok today on very unsuitable ground
 
I can't consider Luxembourg until it confirms its setback is behind it.

French Oaks, Vermeille, German G1 in soft are the ones I want to keep an eye out for through the summer. And maybe the Japanese will have a good candidate.
 
Not bet anything yet but the one I've got my eye on is Al Hakeem. He was terribly drawn in the JC but stayed on really well and is bred to improve over 12f.

The problem though is I fell for a similar type in Mishriff's JC year in Port Guillaume. That horse wasn't badly drawn but was held up and stayed on well once the winner had gone. He went off short odds in Mogul's Niel and finished nowhere - ended up very disappointing.

The issue with the JC is the trip - the mile and a quarter encourages milers to try their hand (one of the horses Port Guillaume passed was Order of Australia who was a stone miler - he did win over 12f but the opposition were handicappers) - and so 12f horses look rapid passing non-stayers up the Chantilly straight, types who wouldn't be in the race if it was still a mile and a half contest.
 
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Vadini definitely possesses the WOW factor and despite the doubters about the trip I really don't see it as a problem.

His trainer has rightly decided to take in the two 10 furlong races, the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano and the Irish Champion Stakes first
then being well have a crack at the Arc.

Desert Crown won the Derby which is all well and good but I've put a huge question mark against him, the question being how good a race was it compared to what has to come.

Races like the Breeders and the Arc take some winning and I think SMS's could struggle in real top class races if he even makes it that far.

Unless they hand the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes to him on aplate I think he'll find Emily Upjohn and Adayar different gravy to the Derby opponents if they turn up
 
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The Arc is completely overrated as an ante post race. Going and draw just two massive issues. You know a SHROOD when they tip you something in the Arc in the middle of the summer.
 
Tanlic said:
Vadini definitely possesses the WOW factor and despite the doubters about the trip I really don't see it as a problem.

His trainer has rightly decided to take in the two 10 furlong races, the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano and the Irish Champion Stakes first
then being well have a crack at the Arc.

Desert Crown won the Derby which is all well and good but I've put a huge question mark against him, the question being how good a race was it compared to what has to come.

Races like the Breeders and the Arc take some winning and I think SMS's could struggle in real top class races if he even makes it that far.

Unless they hand the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes to him on aplate I think he'll find Emily Upjohn and Adayar different gravy to the Derby opponents if they turn up
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You've consistently under-rated Desert Crown, and probably stilll will after he hoists the Arc.
He's ayoung horse which won a good Derby easily on only his 3rd racecourse appearance, with a very capable trainer, and looks certain to improve on what he's achieved so far..
My guess is he'll follow the Workforce route, taking in the King George before being put away for the Arc, when maybe the truth will dawn on even you.:whistle:
 
reet hard said:
You've consistently under-rated Desert Crown, and probably stilll will after he hoists the Arc.
He's ayoung horse which won a good Derby easily on only his 3rd racecourse appearance, with a very capable trainer, and looks certain to improve on what he's achieved so far..
My guess is he'll follow the Workforce route, taking in the King George before being put away for the Arc, when maybe the truth will dawn on even you.:whistle:
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Certainly the way SMS has campaigned him so far supports your view, reet, and I think you could say he knows one when he sees one.
 
Slim said:
The Arc is completely overrated as an ante post race. Going and draw just two massive issues. You know a SHROOD when they tip you something in the Arc in the middle of the summer.
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I said Waldgeist would win it this time in 2019 no one believed me then. :)

I can see a good angle into Alenquer although it looks like it could be a competative renewal.

I mention him as a work in progress throughout this summer.

I want to see him in the King George ideally as he needs to prove it over 1M4F now if he's to be an Arc contender.
 
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Slim said:
The Arc is completely overrated as an ante post race. Going and draw just two massive issues. You know a SHROOD when they tip you something in the Arc in the middle of the summer.
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Backing Torquator Tasso on the day is pretty SHROOD.

Spit.
 
Marb said:
I said Waldgeist would win it this time in 2019 no one believed me then. :)

I can see a good angle into Alenquer although it looks like it could be a competative renewal.

I mention him as a work in progress throughout this summer.

I want to see him in the King George ideally as he needs to prove it over 1M4F now if he's to be an Arc contender.
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I just read a quote from William Haggas after the Tattersalls Gold Cup stating 10 furlongs is Alenquers best trip. This is a bit off putting in terms of the Arc.

Haggas also says he is best with give in the ground.

Maybe the Eclipse is the right race for him if its not too firm.
 
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Yeah that scenario would be okay for Alenquer. Its just the quote about 10F being his best trip that is off putting.

I know one could pick holes in last seasons form but I really am thinking he is becoming a serious horse now as a four year old.

Take a look at his record after a break aswell.

That Tattersalls form is rock solid and he could improve again.

I have said my piece anyway.
 
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Dunno, Marb. Alenquer is a 120-ish horse. I'm looking for a 125-130 horse for the Arc. Hurricane Lane is as good the lower end of that level with the potential to get to the top but not worth backing at this stage.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Dunno, Marb. Alenquer is a 120-ish horse. I'm looking for a 125-130 horse for the Arc. Hurricane Lane is as good the lower end of that level with the potential to get to the top but not worth backing at this stage.
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Yes as I said above I have gone off the idea of Alenquer over 12F.

I think its more likely he will be winning group 1s over 10F.

The issue could be if they up his stablemate Baeed to 10 furlongs.

I have said my piece.
 
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I'll finish off with this.

Alenquer beat State Of Rest the last day who beat Bay Bridge at Ascot.

Strictly on that form, and not even accounting for the fact I think Alenquer will improve again, he has the beating of State Of Rest and Bay Bridge, yet he is currently behind them in the betting for the Eclipse as an 8/1 shot.

He should be right behind or near to Native Trail in the betting.

The only apparant thing that can go against Alenquer in the Eclipse is good to firm ground. With his best form all on right handed tracks I would have thought connections will be looking to run him at Sandown.
 
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Yes.

Would it be correct to say this could be the Aga Khan's first runner in the U.K for a few years? He had a falling out with the racing authorities over here a while back didn't he?

Actually, second thoughts. He won the Derby with Harzand a few years ago. I am not so sure what his policy is.

In theory I was happy enough to take on Native Trail with Alenquer, now Vadeni adds another dimention though.
 
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Frankel said:
Interesting. I want to take on Native Trail.
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After Corebus scraped home in the St James's Palace Stakes and Native Trail not exactly setting the world alight in the Irish Classic

The Eclipse looks there for the taking for Vadeni.

Unfortunately the bookies seem to be on the same page so 5/2 is as good as it gets.
 
Tanlic said:
After Corebus scraped home in the St James's Palace Stakes and Native Trail not exactly setting the world alight in the Irish Classic

The Eclipse looks there for the taking for Vadeni.

Unfortunately the bookies seem to be on the same page so 5/2 is as good as it gets.
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Trip aswell for Native Trail.
 
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