2022 Arc Thread

They really are a joke though. 6/1 was on offer when they thought they knew for certain he wouldn't run.

Such a pity the owner couldn't have 50k on at 6/1, before saying he might run, without the Serious crime squad being at his door.:D
 
Alpinista is double figures on betfair -I will have a small bet on it every day for the next month to pay for Christmas.
 
I looked at backing Alpinista, 14 on the machine, she is is sure to there at the finish if it comes down to a slog/fight .....Only problem with the exchange is they don't have EW betting for the Arc yet.
 
Tanlic said:
I looked at backing Alpinista, 14 on the machine, she is is sure to there at the finish if it comes down to a slog/fight .....Only problem with the exchange is they don't have EW betting for the Arc yet.
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Well,go all in Tan.you can always cover with a place bet later.
 
There's 3 quid available on the machine.....I'll wait a bit plus I am sort of on another Sabatical and have the grand total of 34 quid left in my Betfar account :lol:
 
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When I started this thread I mentioned Alenquer. Maybe worth putting a line through his last run. He gets his ground tomorrow aswell and is well supported in the market.

Maybe not an Arc horse but he can run well at odds tomorrow.

Do for me.
 
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Truncheon said:
Baeed out of the Arc

https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...-unbeaten-superstar-at-champion-stakes/578836

He won't run again imo, It'll more than likely be a quagbog at Ascot and he won't run there either
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It would have been a brave decision to go there and I have mixed feelings. I would have loved to see how he got on at the trip against the best there is this side of the Pond and in possible soft ground but since I'm on Luxembourg at 20s, Alpinista at 20s and Tuesday at 16/1 (twice) and the first two have been cut again, I'm a wee bit relieved. I've gone in again on Tuesday on the machine at massive odds just in case my original bets weren't daft ones. She probably won't even run but, hey...
 
I had a little Eldar Eldarov/Luxembourg ew double on Sunday to add to my big prices on Onesto and Ak Hakeem and there are no mixed feelings here. All about the profit.
 
He's 9/1 not 20s. No form over here, no form on soft, the Jap horse in the POW did nothing. Plenty of questions to answer.
 
I think the phrase horrifically underrated doesn't fit the price he is. We're not talking about a 25s poke here, he's 9/1.
 
Titleholder came up yesterday in a phone call with the brother - he tends to phone me when he's out and about wasting time in the bookies while his wife is going about her business - because he'd never heard of it.

Neither had I but he mentioned that it was "only about 10/1" so I did a quick check on the RP site and confirmed my immediate suspicion that it was a Japanese entry but he has RPRs of around 125 on his CV so is clearly no mug.

I wonder if RPRs tend to under-rate foreign form. Personally I think they do and if I can't come up with a rating myself I tend to add a notional 3lbs on to the RPRs, certainly for French form short of G1/G2 level. For German form I tend to add a notional 5lbs. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Japanese form is under-rated too.

I think there is a built-in disdain for foreign form in RPRs. I've no idea why. Sheer jingoism?

It might also be worth bearing in mind the trending belief that British horses are being bred for speed over stamina whereas the Germans and Japanese are doing the opposite, so maybe we should be respecting entries from those countries more than we do when it comes to 12f+ races likely to be strongly run.

Daydream and Torquator Tasso spring to mind...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I think there is a built-in disdain for foreign form in RPRs. I've no idea why. Sheer jingoism?

It might also be worth bearing in mind the trending belief that British horses are being bred for speed over stamina whereas the Germans and Japanese are doing the opposite, so maybe we should be respecting entries from those countries more than we do when it comes to 12f+ races likely to be strongly run.

Daydream and Torquator Tasso spring to mind...
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That belief is true but Godolphin and Coolmore will always breed boats. In those two German wins the Ballydoyle fav was a 10f horse and last year was run under extreme ground conditions. The bottom line for me is that AOB has never had a 3yo with the credentials that Luxembourg has for the race. Can't see past him unless it's heavy.
 
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