2022 Grand National

I'm sure the brother told me last night on the phone.

There was also another item in the RP highlighting his chances and the coincidences with Numbersixvalverde.

It's type I might end up using as claw-back cover nearer the off as my shite-it mode kicks in.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've just done my first trawl of the race ..
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These are the ones, in racecard order from the top along with the current best price (taken directly from the RP card so it might be with some obscure cowboy outfit), I believe to be handicapped to win a decent Saturday handicap.

I want to double-check my figures and look at form beyond last season before committing to putting up ratings, plus there will be some Saturday and Festival performances that will affect some of the figures.

Personally, I like horses that on my ratings have at least a 160 in them, whether that's known form or potential, as I believe that's the kind of class you need for a modern National. The RPR equivalent would probably be around 155. That probably still covers the majority of the field, I accept, but it can often rule out the lightweights that just don't have the class yet figure at under 20/1 in the betting.

Lostintranslation 66/1
Burrows Saint 20/1
Two For Gold 50/1
Chatham Street Lad 40/1
Itchy Feet 66/1
Lord Du Mesnil 66/1
De Rasher Counter 66/1
Anibale Fly 50/1
Enjoy D'allen 20/1
Highland Hunter 50/1
Top Ville Ben 66/1
Class Conti 66/1
Cloth Cap 33/1
Phoenix Way 33/1
Death Duty 33/1
Domaine De L'Isle 100/1
Go Another One 100/1

I didn't go any lower in the card because I don't think anything that far down will make the cut.

No shortage of value if any of them appeal!

I still think if Chatham Street Lad stays and gets round he will be immensely hard to beat.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I still think if Chatham Street Lad stays and gets round he will be immensely hard to beat.
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CSL goes in the Red Mills today. On ORs he should have no chance, trying to give 3lbs to a horse rated a stone better. I'm not expecting him to win, though, just to show enough promise with the National in mind (and maybe the Gold Cup en route).
 
Desert Orchid said:
CSL goes in the Red Mills today. On ORs he should have no chance, trying to give 3lbs to a horse rated a stone better. I'm not expecting him to win, though, just to show enough promise with the National in mind (and maybe the Gold Cup en route).
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Non Runner
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lostintranslation 66/1
Burrows Saint 20/1
Two For Gold 50/1
Chatham Street Lad 40/1
Itchy Feet 66/1
Lord Du Mesnil 66/1
De Rasher Counter 66/1
Anibale Fly 50/1
Enjoy D'allen 20/1
Highland Hunter 50/1
Top Ville Ben 66/1
Class Conti 66/1
Cloth Cap 33/1
Phoenix Way 33/1
Death Duty 33/1
Domaine De L'Isle 100/1
Go Another One 100/1
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Two For Gold clipped into around 25s-33s after today. Still three-figures on the exchange.
 
Two For Gold raised 5bs so will be that much well in for the National.

(Unless he comes out and runs a big race in the Gold Cup!)

40/1 NRNB at Betfred. I've gone in again. That's too big a price. Not many will be officially better in on the day and if he doesn't turn up no harm done.
 
Desert Orchid said:
These are the ones, in racecard order from the top along with the current best price (taken directly from the RP card so it might be with some obscure cowboy outfit), I believe to be handicapped to win a decent Saturday handicap.

I want to double-check my figures and look at form beyond last season before committing to putting up ratings, plus there will be some Saturday and Festival performances that will affect some of the figures.

Personally, I like horses that on my ratings have at least a 160 in them, whether that's known form or potential, as I believe that's the kind of class you need for a modern National. The RPR equivalent would probably be around 155. That probably still covers the majority of the field, I accept, but it can often rule out the lightweights that just don't have the class yet figure at under 20/1 in the betting.

Lostintranslation 66/1
Burrows Saint 20/1
Two For Gold 50/1
Chatham Street Lad 40/1
Itchy Feet 66/1
Lord Du Mesnil 66/1
De Rasher Counter 66/1
Anibale Fly 50/1
Enjoy D'allen 20/1
Highland Hunter 50/1
Top Ville Ben 66/1
Class Conti 66/1
Cloth Cap 33/1
Phoenix Way 33/1
Death Duty 33/1
Domaine De L'Isle 100/1
Go Another One 100/1

I didn't go any lower in the card because I don't think anything that far down will make the cut.

No shortage of value if any of them appeal!

I still think if Chatham Street Lad stays and gets round he will be immensely hard to beat.
Click to expand...

Lost In Translation is entered in the Ultima
 
Will be good to see everyone now realising that Any Second Now is the one to beat in April.
 
I'm not convinced he's well enough handicapped. He was one of my stronger bets last year and was a bit unlucky but he's up in the handicap this year.

I could be interested at 40/1 but would be in no rush to back him at this stage.
 
I thought that was an interesting almost throwaway comment from Ted Walsh following ASN's win yesterday. He mentioned he felt that Anibale Fly had run a promising trial in finishing in midfield in the 2.5m handicap hurdle.

Does anyone know if the May Punchestown meeting qualifies as this season?

I always see it as an end-of-season meeting but for the last few years it has appeared in the results section at the start of the form book returns.

I ask because if it counts as last season then Anibale Fly still needs to run in a chase this season to qualify, having been kept to hurdles since Punchestown.

Whether it remembered previous GN experience last time or just had a sulky day, its race was over at the first fence and the handicapper has allowed it half a stone compared with that day.

Rated 148, It's certainly chucked in on its best form, having been rated 164 in 2019 and earned RPR 174 in the Gold Cup that March. I suspect it's been trained for the National ever since that race and was given a sighter of the course in 2019 when ridden from the rear that April. There was no race in 2020 so last year's run is a wee bit more worrying.

However, TW had just won the Bobbyjo with a JP horse and managed to work the same owner's AF into the conversation.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I thought that was an interesting almost throwaway comment from Ted Walsh following ASN's win yesterday. He mentioned he felt that Anibale Fly had run a promising trial in finishing in midfield in the 2.5m handicap hurdle.

Does anyone know if the May Punchestown meeting qualifies as this season?

I always see it as an end-of-season meeting but for the last few years it has appeared in the results section at the start of the form book returns.

I ask because if it counts as last season then Anibale Fly still needs to run in a chase this season to qualify, having been kept to hurdles since Punchestown.

Whether it remembered previous GN experience last time or just had a sulky day, its race was over at the first fence and the handicapper has allowed it half a stone compared with that day.

Rated 148, It's certainly chucked in on its best form, having been rated 164 in 2019 and earned RPR 174 in the Gold Cup that March. I suspect it's been trained for the National ever since that race and was given a sighter of the course in 2019 when ridden from the rear that April. There was no race in 2020 so last year's run is a wee bit more worrying.

However, TW had just won the Bobbyjo with a JP horse and managed to work the same owner's AF into the conversation.
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Doesn't the UK jumps season start in April, therefore it counts?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not convinced he's well enough handicapped. He was one of my stronger bets last year and was a bit unlucky but he's up in the handicap this year.

I could be interested at 40/1 but would be in no rush to back him at this stage.
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He's 1lb better off with Escaria Ten at Aintree, is in superb form and has course form. 40/1 is for horses with little chance in this race.
 
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My top figures are always based on the best form. My top figure for him is 168. He's on 159 this year. Earlier in the thread I posted a list of the ones I rated as best handicapped. There's at least a dozen on the list and they all have ratings (my own) at least 10lb higher than their OR for the race.

That's why I'm lukewarm (purely on a handicapping basis - he obviously takes to the track and trip, which a lot of the others won't).
 
Slim said:
Is Mount Ida on your list?
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No but she's very much on my mind due to her potential.

This is the post I put up earlier:

Desert Orchid said:
These are the ones, in racecard order from the top along with the current best price (taken directly from the RP card so it might be with some obscure cowboy outfit), I believe to be handicapped to win a decent Saturday handicap.

I want to double-check my figures and look at form beyond last season before committing to putting up ratings, plus there will be some Saturday and Festival performances that will affect some of the figures.

Personally, I like horses that on my ratings have at least a 160 in them, whether that's known form or potential, as I believe that's the kind of class you need for a modern National. The RPR equivalent would probably be around 155. That probably still covers the majority of the field, I accept, but it can often rule out the lightweights that just don't have the class yet figure at under 20/1 in the betting.

Lostintranslation 66/1
Burrows Saint 20/1
Two For Gold 50/1
Chatham Street Lad 40/1
Itchy Feet 66/1
Lord Du Mesnil 66/1
De Rasher Counter 66/1
Anibale Fly 50/1
Enjoy D'allen 20/1
Highland Hunter 50/1
Top Ville Ben 66/1
Class Conti 66/1
Cloth Cap 33/1
Phoenix Way 33/1
Death Duty 33/1
Domaine De L'Isle 100/1
Go Another One 100/1

I didn't go any lower in the card because I don't think anything that far down will make the cut.

No shortage of value if any of them appeal!

I still think if Chatham Street Lad stays and gets round he will be immensely hard to beat.
Click to expand...
 
I would have thought Ontheropes would have been on your list D.
Ran 4th in the Ladbroke off 152 so has the potential to be a 160 horse.
 
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