A Gambling Sabatical

A very interesting thread ..

Chasing is the singular worse thing you can do - we've all done it, but rationally, if you didn't fancy something at the start of the day, but will now bet on it just because you are down on the day, that makes no sense, particularly if you bet relatively seriously. There is no shortage of bets, no matter what your angle, so surely it is better to wait until you have calmed down, and then look for a value bet or bets, and wait until these come to you, as opposed to creating bets that are not there.

I don't understand backing horses that there has been a word for. Most owners will pass on a 'word' that their horse could do well etc etc. What does this actually mean? Nothing, the vast majority of the time. Even if they think it is never better, how can their tip be worth anything unless they have an intricate knowledge of, firstly, all other horses form and other relevant factors, and, secondly, what is their understanding of a value bet, and also, how can they be objective when they are closely connected to a horse. I wouldn't put a bet on in these circumstances for love nor money.
 
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A staking plan could have saved me on the way down but the other side of the coin is that I wouldn't have got as far as I did.I'm still not convinced how essential a staking plan is.
Last Saturday I watched a couple of races on ch4 plus 1 - an hour behind-and found it enjoyable and relaxing.After that I played basketball with my daughter for half an hour and took the dog for a walk.There are definitely benefits having a break but I wish it had been through choice not neccessity.
 
Day one,poor racing makes it easy enough to miss. If I was having a bet it would be two small ews and an ew double on barndeh and capacity at wolver.Would be very small stakes though. Tuesday and Wednesday be 13 hour days for me so I won't have time to be Looking through form,usually would do a champions league bet but It's getting to the stage if the competition where teams are nearly qualified and may not push themselves too hard,so a good time to miss them.
 
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You'll either have saved yourself a few quid or you can take it up again when you start doing better from the paper bets Del rather than a fixed date at the end of the year.
 
Like Gearoid said this is a bad time of year for this sabatical. Surely taking it immediately after the Gold Cup until the 2000 Guineas would be preferable.
 
Personally its a good time for me, although i can see your point. I have a lot of work on for November and i always find the racing the week before christmas poor enough, so im happy enough with the time i have selected. Il keep watching racing where i can, and i can still enjoy a race without a bet.
 
So in 4 pages of varying opinions and different interpretations of what a good or bad about a sabbatical, has anyone actually learned anything?


Are we as punters entitled to win?

I think the obvious answer is of course not. The more work and care you put in the less your variance will be. You might not maximise your winnings but you will certainly not put yourself in a position were you do your entire bank and need to sit out for an extended period when in an ideal world you would be right in the thick of the action.


Losing runs and bad luck.

There is no such thing as bad luck. In reality what is happening is you are getting more outcomes wrong with a higher frequency and over an extended period. This is bad judgement and not bad luck.

Why do you need a Sabatical?

What has most disappointed me about this thread is the lack of responsibility taking. As I said above no one is entitled to win and even in the heat of a massive winning run we all know at the back of our mind that you are only a few bets away from doing in a sizable chunk. You are alwways aware that the frequency with which you are backing winners can not be realistically maintained and therefore you cannot get carried away. No one clicks the button or puts the money over the counter but yourself. To blame it on anything else but poor judgement, staking or the inability to control your emotions is a massive cop out and will not help you the next time you decide to “get in” on the action after your “refreshing sabbatical”. Like the banks in this country you were happy to reap the rewards and profits while the good times were rolling but as soon as a “losing run” occurs the whole house of cards falls down. The time for questioning your methods was on the way up not now when the ship has sank.



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Why do I need a sabbatical? Okay,simple answer,the poor judgement as you put it,or bad luck,or extended run of loses,whatever way we want to frame it, has been getting me increasingly frustrated and annoyed. Gambling shouldn't affect your personal life, so taking a break and starting afresh seems in my mind seems a decent way of chilling out and getting a break from it all. Fresh mind is needed for my next assault.
 
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It all boils down to accepting the nature of the game.

You are trying to beat the odds..which in the long run is very very difficult..but in the short run..can be surprisingly easy.

One day you can sit for an hour and not back a loser..then another day you cannot stop backing losers

it is the ebb and flow that plays on your mind...there is really no point in which you can relax because even when winning you know in the back of your mind that it is just as easy to lose as win.

we all know its those short runs of wins that feeds a very small belief that you can continue it..that small belief used to be a big belief..but over time it gets smaller as the number of times you go down after being up starts following a regular pattern.

after a period of time you know that you aren't going to win long term without very strict discipline.

if you haven't got that discipline then best thing to do..is when winning..remove the winnings into your spending account..and spend it..then in your betting account start off small again..carry on doing that..then at least what you win you benefit from it..and the losing amounts are smaller because you have removed the temptation to waste your winnings.
 
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I've only become a winning punter for probably the last 18 months or so and I put it down to four reasons:

1. Speed ratings are the basis of every bet I have. I think you need to have a specialised thread through all your bets that distinguish you from the man in the street. Be it paddock watching, sectional timing, dosage etc. etc.

2. I keep detailed records of every bet I have. Bet type, racecourse etc. Wouldn't bother with Trainers and Jockeys, can instigate prejudices that aren't there.

3. I have only recently fully understood the mathematics of gambling due to work. I know betting EW against odds on shots is near on fault proof and that backing horses at 12s that go off 7s will mean I win in the long run. Therefore, it's very important to know when a horse should be 4/1 when it's 8/1 in the morning and have confidence too.

4. I keep my betting money completely separate from my personal life money (different current accounts)

I regularly take days off from punting if the racing looks poor or if I'm shattered and it's affecting me mentally but rarely have more than 2 or 3 consecutive days off.
 
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