Aig Irish Champion Hurdle

Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Jan 31 2008, 09:32 PM
As for my views on Al Eile, may I remind you I stated that "Al Eile has usually run better when fresh".
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And you have provided little evidence to support it, whereas I have offered plenty of evidence to the contrary.

Yes I have. Haydock Jan 06/Aint Apr 07/Frist two runs of this campaign

I did not state this to be always the case, and I certainly am not in the business of deliberatley ignoring anything to prove a theory.
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It's the foundation of your opinion that Al Eile's run on Sunday should be treated with caution.

It is part of the foundation (who is ignoring sections for convenience now?). My other assertion is his form his inconcsistent and he throws in the odd poor run. Who is to say that didn't happen on Sunday?

Form figures of 371 are not those of a top class horse in my opinion
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Neither are 1222, either. One wonders what is?
I have already stated my case for arguing this season's HE form is in decline.

and I do not think he has improved at all since the victory that came at Aintree that season.
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Neither do I! He doesn't have to have to make Sizing Europe's performance a championship-level performance

If, as I suspect, the terminal decline of HE indicates that Al Eile probably ran one of his "stinkers" last Sunday, then there is a chance SE is being seriously overrated.

Maybe Hardy did not stay 3 miles, maybe not - he stayed it better than every horse bar Lough Derg.
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That's because he's a class horse. He either stays the trip or he doesn't. Class is irrelevant. One Man springs to mind at Cheltenham.

It cannot be denied that the from of his earlier Ascot victory has been seriously let down by Afsoun.
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Presumably so has the Champion Hurdle form, then? Doesn't stop you putting Sublimity forward.
You have a habit of being selective in your quotes. You know full well that I have suggested HEs decline is in free fall this season, a but like Moscow Flyer in his final season. Moscow won a QM the season before he totally lost his form.

Now I accept I may be jumping the gun, but I simply do not believe HE si the same horse he was only last season, and that the ratings he continues to attract are way off the mark.

I'd rather you didn't misquote me. I do not agree that Al Eile is 6/7 lbs off Champion Hurdle class
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6-7 lengths is what I said, which is what he was beaten by when Hardy Eustace won his ssecond champion hurdle.

Presumably you don't think Hardy Eustace was a Champion Hurdle class horse either, then?
Yes, of course I do. How many more times must I state that HE beat him twice by between 6-7 lengths. HEs suspected terminal decline this season sees Al Eile only able to run to the same level of form as him, suggesting to me Al Eile's last run at least is way below champion hurdle standard.

I made the point quite clearly that Hardy Eustace is in decline and that I don't believe Al Eile has improved - so the "closing in the gap" between them actually means Hardy Eustace is possibly in steeper decline than official ratings think.
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If Hardy Eustace has declined by around half a stone and Al Eile has stayed the same, they'd be finishing closely off level weights.

You know, like what just happened in two races at Leopardstown in the space of a month.

I have given Al Eile the benefit of the doubt, in all honesty I don't believe he is improving and if anything may also be in decline.

Why do you not think we will truly know the answer on March 11th. Surely if Al Eile and Sizing Europe run to a similar level of form as in the AIG but fail to fill the first two places I will be rigth and you will be wrong?
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Fail to fill the first two places? What are you on about?

My mistake, basically I am saying that if SE is defeated and Al Eile finishes in a similar position behind him on the day then my theory will be proven. SE was a very poor value favourite at 5/2!
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To Gal, and Del Boy, why don't I deserve a medal?

I think Gareth is "out to get me" because after similarly pedantic and persistent tagging of my threads, he was proven completely wrong over the "rtf" issue in betting shopes and Lyida Hislop being a former amateur jockey.

Of course, the ensuing argument over SE's pretentions to championship class will only be answered on March 11th.

If somebody persistently challenges my argument on a thread am I not at liberty to defend myself?

Oh, and one final point on the SE situation. As I have said before I have laid him to a stake of £200 at 3.5 on Betfair. Gareth you state you haven't had a penny on him. You can't be that confident in you assumptinos then can you?

Oh, and another thing, looking at previous threads Gareth I don't seem to find any from you tipping up SE at the beginning of the season. Anyone can jump a bandwagon and follow the arguments of the majority once a horse has shot to favouritsm for a race.
 
On the claim that Al Eile runs best fresh:

Haydock Jan 06/Aint Apr 07/Frist two runs of this campaign
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All that shows is that Al Eile can run to his best when fresh, not that he runs better when fresh. Come on, this is simple stuff.

BTW, how does his run in the Cesarewitch apply to his 'freshness' in the Fighting Fifth?

He either stays the trip or he doesn't. Class is irrelevant.
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This has got to be a wind up.

The concept of "staying" a trip is entirely connected to the concept of the class of the horse and the class of those he is running against.

You have a habit of being selective in your quotes. You know full well that I have suggested HEs decline is in free fall this season, a but like Moscow Flyer in his final season. Moscow won a QM the season before he totally lost his form.
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I wasn't referring to Hardy Eustace, but to Afsoun.

Now I accept I may be jumping the gun, but I simply do not believe HE si the same horse he was only last season, and that the ratings he continues to attract are way off the mark.
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The Racing Post Ratings that have him at 159 and 161 for his last two runs where they were giving him 166 previously? The official handicapper who has dropped him from 168 to 162 since the Champion Hurdle last year?

Al Eile's last run at least is way below champion hurdle standard.
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Probably around 8 lengths below...

I have given Al Eile the benefit of the doubt, in all honesty I don't believe he is improving and if anything may also be in decline.
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Ah, I see, so now they're both in decline...

basically I am saying that if SE is defeated and Al Eile finishes in a similar position behind him on the day then my theory will be proven.
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Not necessarily - the form of Sunday's race could still be confirmed even if SE didn't actually when the CH.
 
I think Gareth is "out to get me" because after similarly pedantic and persistent tagging of my threads, he was proven completely wrong over the "rtf" issue in betting shopes and Lyida Hislop being a former amateur jockey.
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Seriously, don't flatter yourself.

BTW, if you read carefully you'll notice that I never stated that I thought that Lydia Hislop was a former amateur jockey, but simply provided a link to the L Hislop (7) that Venusian had mentioned.

I was very careful not to say it was her, because I simply didn't know.

On the subject of the RTF, I said that they were on the online cards (which they are), that I was "pretty sure" they were in the paper too (they're not) and that I'd be surprised if they were left out on the shop-wall version (which I am).

When you posted confirming they weren't, I actually thanked you.

What a way to "get" you!

Of course, the ensuing argument over SE's pretentions to championship class will only be answered on March 11th.
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Unless he falls over/gets injured/runs below even what you consider to be his form/gives a championship class performance and still gets beaten by a better horse.

If somebody persistently challenges my argument on a thread am I not at liberty to defend myself?
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On the contrary, I positively encourage you to!

Oh, and one final point on the SE situation. As I have said before I have laid him to a stake of £200 at 3.5 on Betfair. Gareth you state you haven't had a penny on him. You can't be that confident in you assumptinos then can you?
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Or, I don't bet ante-post on a sport with such a ridiculously high attrition rate as jump racing has.

Oh, and another thing, looking at previous threads Gareth I don't seem to find any from you tipping up SE at the beginning of the season. Anyone can jump a bandwagon and follow the arguments of the majority once a horse has shot to favouritsm for a race.
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And anyone can crab a favourite knowing that even at 5/2 there's a 5 out of 7 chance that they'll lose the race...
 
Gareth, personally my betting forays usually focus on favourites, and I am far more a backer than a layer. I tend to back favs I think are worthy, and the price is usually incidental. If I can eliminate the rest of the field's chances on paper, and there are no nagging doubts about the horse in question, then I will play.

I have backed horses at 8/15 in my time (Azertyiuop on his novice chase debut for instance) and regarded the price as laughably long, and a chance to buy money.

I am well aware of the strike rates of favourites across the land, and my personal betting win rate is 39% over the past 12 months.

I am not just picking on SE as he is favourite, and looking to the overall likelihood of a 5/2 losing statistically. I feel at the price he is a value lay, and I have played hard (very hard by my standards) on this one.

Considering your views of the perils of betting ante-post on jump racing, will you nevertheless be backing him for the race on the day? I presume you will be given your high levels of confidence in his ability?
 
If he lines up on the day with no dramas, nothing else has done anything spectacular in the meantime and he hasn't shortened up too dramatically, then I would imagine that I will back him on the day, yes.
 
Originally posted by useful@Jan 31 2008, 02:55 PM
There is gonna some egg on some faces on here come 11th March can't wait.

I have already laid SE on Betfair, and if his price contracts I may have some more.

Garney I think makes the point that all of the horses lining up against SE have questions to answer. Possibly, however so does SE - in that he has yet to prove it against ALL of the main protagonists - I have already stated my views on the form of Hardy and Al Eile.

He may have a favourites chance but the price should be upwards of 4/1 in what is a wide open heat.

By the way I had a nice bet on him at Punchestown last season so I really have nothing against the horse, just think the jury is still out!
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Well said :clap: :clap: ... there was a lot of egg on faces last year too...
You've made very valid points.. but the 'Lourdes crew' will always bash you because they bet with their hearts and not their heads..

I'm suprised with some of the comments made by people on this site... people I wouldn't normally expect to be wearing blinkers and a visor at the same time!

To be honest most of them haven't a clue about racing but just bully their points across... the same faces with the same attitude turn up everytime somebody makes a point that doesn't match their opinion...

If this site is supposed to be an open forum then why do the same people shout down :rant: any objective opinion that doesn't 'suit' their thinking.. they gang up and shout the guy down.. hardly in the spirit of an 'open forum', is it?

And, if the 'objector' turns out to be right :P (like last year and the year before i.e. Moscow Flyer, Sublimity) nothing is said :eek: :suspect: ... the shamed :shy: are too busy shouting down the next 'non suitable' point made... usually National or Guineas...

Fair dues to you... you've made the point now just sit back and, as Nick the man himself says, 'TIME WILL TELL'.

AoB :)
 
The excitement turned up a notch today, and a point in favour of the SE disciples. Afsoun's victory was fair and square, and in one fell swoop makes the chances of Harchibald and Straw Bear at Cheltenham far less attractive.

Lets see what the Kingwell throws up!!!!

I am not panicking yet mind!!!
 
Harchibald has as much chance as winning the Champion Hurdle as I have of winning the scoop 6 next week.

I really cannot believe ONE punter would back the animal...it's a complete and utter camel...why people even mention it in that light is a complete mystery to me.

then again...many things are
 
Another Irish horse for the Champion Hurdle...Catch Me. That was pretty impressive. McNamara will have mixed feelings...good prize and clearly a very smart horse but that just about guarantees he wont be riding Sizing Europe in the Champion Hurdle.
 
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