Aig Irish Champion Hurdle

If I may return to my basic point which is this - 2/1 is too short a price in a champion hurdle for a horse many presume has improved to a 170+ rating (even though holes can be picked in his form), but for which there is no concrete evidence that this is the case.

If he was still backable at an e/w price then yes, this might represent value, but the current odds are ridiculous. I feel a lot of the people talking up this horse have probably backed him at double figure odds already (and hopefully laid him at 2s to cover their stakes!).

To someone (like me) who has no ante-post interest I simply couldn't have him at that price. I notice Nick Mordin is of a similar view and makes him his lay of the festival.

He also considers the steeplechasing "jumping style" of the horse, and wonders if in a truly run Champion Hurdle he will have the speed over his hurdles to win. This theory is borne out by the comparative sectional times of the AIG.

By the way gus, the answer to your quesion is no. However in this case the media have gone way over the top in placing SE on a pedestal before he has even contested the Champion Hurdle.

Similarly, I think 6lbs is a big turnaround in the weights, especially if you dont think an 8 length beating of Hardy Eustace or Al Eile represents significant improvement (Al Eile has usually run better when fresh).

When I mentioned the likes of Harchibald etc, they are horses who have proven their class in Grade 1s over a long period. And at the prices are far better value than the 2/1 about a horse who has one Grade 1 to his name.

Bobbyjo, your one liners don't really make a lot of sense. Al Eile has a rating of 160 which is not in my book top class. Yes, I do think the Greatwood form is open to criticism, which could mean both Osana and SE are vulnerable in the Champion Hurdle. Nevertheless the 6lb pull Osana will enjoy at Cheltenham doesn't mean he wont finish in front of SE - it just might not be in the positions most people are assuming (ie 1st and 2nd).

Yes, horses improve, some at a very fast rate of knots. But Collier Bay started 9/1 for the Champion Hurdle; Make A Stand (7/1); Gaye Brief (7/1). Solid E/W prices if you were prepared to bank on their improvement being fast enough to grab a Champion Hurdle.

I think part of the problem with the public's support behind SE's Champion Hurdle challenge is that after being spoilt for a number of year's with a glut of top class hurdlers from Istabraq through to Brave Inca, we now have an apparent vacuum at the top. Good luck to SE in trying to fill that, but I am staggered if anyone genuinely believes 2/1 is a backable price on the basis of one performance.

See you all back here on the evening of the 11th March and may the best man/woman win!!!!
 
Originally posted by useful@Jan 31 2008, 11:42 AM
He also considers the steeplechasing "jumping style" of the horse, and wonders if in a truly run Champion Hurdle he will have the speed over his hurdles to win.
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I saw the race for the first time the other evening, and this is the only thing that would worry me if I was a Sizing Europe backer.

Champion hurdles are more suited to horses with a more economical style of jumping.

That said, he looks like a beast.
 
His jumping was not found out in a big field at Cheltenham already so I don’t see why it would be in probably a smaller run field. He does jump hurdles big but there were times on Sunday when he made ground on the other two at certain hurdles. His jumping would not worry me.
 
Gareth, you're being pedantic. 2/1 or 5/2 - neither price is an e/w angle into the race. As I have said before, if he was 4/1 + (assuming you get 1/4 the odds of course) you could still back him to nothing as he has a good chance of being placed.

He is not, repeat not, a bet at 2/1 or 5/2. Or, putting it another way, are his form credentials almost comparable with that of Brave Inca's (7/4) in 2006? I seriously doubt it?
 
And pedantic !!

A half a point in price makes no difference to the argument I am making, which is that SE is poor value now that he cannot be backed e/w (or indeed odds against for a place on the exchanges).

I seem to remember you being "accurate" regarding the rtf in the RP as well!!





(Apologies for the edit useful - I meant to reply and quote you, but edited your post instead by accident - should be fixed now)
 
I'm with useful here. I do not believe that we will be seeing a further huge leap of improvement from SE. If at all I reckon it will only be 3/4lbs. Which puts him in there with a leading chance. What it does not do is reduce the chance of the others with solid Grade 1 form, most of which puts them right in there at about the same sort of mark.

Put another way. If you were offered 11/2 that Sublimity reproduces his form of last year, would that be a reasonable bet?

If you were also offered 5/2 that Sizing Europe improves by more than 4lbs, would that be a reasonable bet?

I do not believe the latter to be a good value bet. As Useful mentioned, horses like Collier Bay and Make A Stand were available at much larger prices, with a similar amount of improvement required from them. I would consider SE a reasonable bet at 4/1 or bigger.
 
Originally posted by useful@Jan 31 2008, 12:43 PM
And pedantic !!

A half a point in price makes no difference to the argument I am making, which is that SE is poor value now that he cannot be backed e/w (or indeed odds against for a place on the exchanges).
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The central point you were making is that 2/1 is too short, a point which every major bookie in the country appears to agree with.
 
I actually got a call on the evening of the Greatwood to ask if I'd seen the race. The caller was someone with a knack for spotting winners of bigraces long before they happen.

His take on the race was that Osana was a huge non-trier that day and that he expected considerable progress. He advised me to abck Osana for the Champion at that point. Needless to say, I told him he was talking sh*te.
 
Originally posted by simmo@Jan 31 2008, 12:58 PM
I'm with useful here. I do not believe that we will be seeing a further huge leap of improvement from SE. If at all I reckon it will only be 3/4lbs. Which puts him in there with a leading chance. What it does not do is reduce the chance of the others with solid Grade 1 form, most of which puts them right in there at about the same sort of mark.

Put another way. If you were offered 11/2 that Sublimity reproduces his form of last year, would that be a reasonable bet?

If you were also offered 5/2 that Sizing Europe improves by more than 4lbs, would that be a reasonable bet?

I do not believe the latter to be a good value bet. As Useful mentioned, horses like Collier Bay and Make A Stand were available at much larger prices, with a similar amount of improvement required from them. I would consider SE a reasonable bet at 4/1 or bigger.
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Make A Stand hadnt beaten anything other than handicappers. Had Sizing Europe not run in the AIG and gone straight to the Champion hurdle on the back of his Greatwood win as a 5/2 shot, then the comparison between the two horses regarding price may be valid.

If there was something of Alderbrook's quality in this CHampion Hurdle, I think Sizing Europe would be a bigger price than 5/2.

He can only beat what is put in front of him, and like it or not, the oppostion have prenty of question marks surrounding them. Osana being possibly the one with fewest, but he doenst have Grade 1 form either.
 
The highest rating I ever managed for Make A Stand was 164 and that was in an era of relatively ordinary champions (Flakey Dove 156, etc).

IN recent years, they've been averaging about 167-168 and I reckon SE ran to about that figure the other day. My figure for Osana is 176? but that includes the start he got.
 
Originally posted by Garney@Jan 31 2008, 01:33 PM
the oppostion have prenty of question marks surrounding them.
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Just as there are question marks about SE. Taking the shortest price from all of those with question marks is a quick way to the poor house.

I take your point about Make A Stand, however, in the context of the race he was due to run in, the point remains valid - anyone backing Make A Stand was betting that he would improve past Collier Bay and Large Action (both had question marks) and also that he would prove best of the 4 potential improvers priced under 10/1 - in that context his price was correct.

Re the Alderbrook comment - I disagree. The market for that year IIRC was Alderbrook Evs Danoli 5/1 Mysilv 7/1 Collier Bay 9/1. The price for Collier Bay, IMO, was made by the under pricing of Danoli and Mysilv more than the perceived quality of Alderbrook. CB had, of course, just won the Irish Ch Hdl narrowly - and perhaps should, arguably, have been shorter than either Danoli or Mysilv.

Anyone backing Sizing Europe is betting that he will improve the (admittedly smaller) required amount past Sublimity and Harchibald and that he will prove best of the potential improvers. Unlike CB, his price more than takes account of his impressive AIG performance.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jan 31 2008, 02:08 PM
Who does Sizing Europe have to improve past to beat?
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Is that a trick question?

Sublimity and Harchibald. All three have the same highest RPR. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that improvement of around 3/4lbs will be required. It is reasonable to conclude that Sizing Europe is capable of that. It is also reasonable to conclude that Sublimity is also capable of that. It is probably not reasonable to conclude that Harchibald is capable of that. Given that it is reasonable to conclude that SE and Sublimity are both capable of improving the small amount required, it is also reasonable to conclude that their prices should be closer than they are at present.
 
I dont think that Sizing Europe has to improve. I wouldnt be a punter but he is by far and away the most likely winner, and anyone who thinks he is a ridiculous price knows where to go to make their fortune.

Progressive, off the back of a top class run, the right age. I dont see where the question marks are. Are they more pressing than taking Sublimity's well being on trust, or Harchibald's stable form. I think it was a particularly ordinary effort by Straw Bear to beat Harchibald at Kempton. Hasnt he burst blood vessels. Osana has claims and he is vying for second favouritsm. I think the market is about right.
 
Harchibald and Sublimity are both rated inferior to SE on official figures. With the stable form of Noel Meade it will be remarkable if Harchibald runs to form.

I repeat what I said previously. The win at Leopardstown was impressive in itself but what is even more impressive/encouraging is that the win gave when all the vibes on the day from connections and in the betting suggested the horse would come on for the run considering he had missed his planned run at Christmas due to a set back. I don’t think he was fully primed on Sunday.
 
It has seemed to me for some time that the Champion Hurdle old guard are gone. Finished. The race lies between Sizing Europe and Osana.
 
Some fair points from Galileo and Garney there, which is, I suppose, what makes the market to coin a cliche. :P

FWIW I have backed Afsoun and Ebaziyan e/w. :laughing:
 
Simmo I too fancied Ebaziyan to run a big race but I was really disappointed with him on Sunday. The ground was verging on having the word good in it and he was tailed off so early. I thought he was really disappointing…certainly more so than in the Hattons Grace or other such races where he seemed to have a genuine excuse.
 
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