Aig Irish Champion Hurdle

There is gonna some egg on some faces on here come 11th March can't wait.

I have already laid SE on Betfair, and if his price contracts I may have some more.

Garney I think makes the point that all of the horses lining up against SE have questions to answer. Possibly, however so does SE - in that he has yet to prove it against ALL of the main protagonists - I have already stated my views on the form of Hardy and Al Eile.

He may have a favourites chance but the price should be upwards of 4/1 in what is a wide open heat.

By the way I had a nice bet on him at Punchestown last season so I really have nothing against the horse, just think the jury is still out!
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jan 31 2008, 02:51 PM
Simmo I too fancied Ebaziyan to run a big race but I was really disappointed with him on Sunday. The ground was verging on having the word good in it and he was tailed off so early. I thought he was really disappointing…certainly more so than in the Hattons Grace or other such races where he seemed to have a genuine excuse.
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Quite. (Does Muttley impersonation) :angy:
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jan 31 2008, 02:51 PM
Simmo I too fancied Ebaziyan to run a big race but I was really disappointed with him on Sunday. The ground was verging on having the word good in it and he was tailed off so early. I thought he was really disappointing…certainly more so than in the Hattons Grace or other such races where he seemed to have a genuine excuse.
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Ebaziyan was the subject of Sunday's call. "Never put in the race. That b@stard is plotting to win the Champion Hurdle at 33/1," were the pertinent comments.
 
Nah I don’t think that’s the case DO. What was the point in running him in it if he was a non trier considering he had run two weeks before hand and hardly needed another race as a prep.

The AIG is worth 100,000 to the winner, granted Cheltenham supercedes it all but I doubt very much he went in there as a non trier and that Ruby turned down the ride on SE knowing he was going to be on a non trier!!!
 
Originally posted by useful@Jan 31 2008, 03:06 PM
How do they do that Gareth?
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The other horses that you mentioned were Sublimity, Harchibald, Straw Bear and Jazz Messenger. All of these have plenty of form that ties in closely with Al Eile and Hardy Eustace. Jazz Messenger is at his very best about as good as Al Eile. On the evidence of Kempton, there's little between Harchibald and Straw Bear these days, and Harchibald's Fighting Fifth form with Al Eile is there for all to see.

The only one of those horses who might still have the ability and improvement in him to do to Hardy Eustace and Al Eile with Sizing Europe did to them on Sunday is Sublimity, which given he is second favourite is hardly earth-shattering news.

You can't have it both ways. If you dismiss Hardy Eustace and Al Eile as not being up to it these days or not being good enough in the first place, you're effectively dismissing everything else except the top three in the market.
 
Originally posted by useful@Jan 31 2008, 02:55 PM
Garney I think makes the point that all of the horses lining up against SE have questions to answer. Possibly, however so does SE - in that he has yet to prove it against ALL of the main protagonists - I have already stated my views on the form of Hardy and Al Eile.
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And all the other horses have to prove it against Sizing Europe.

What did Sublimity beat last year, that SE hasnt done with arguably more class this year?

If you think this arguement means there is going to egg on people's faces come March, you are wrong. I dont think anyone has said anything re Sizing Europe that would lead to embarrasment.

I'll take 7/2 off you if you are offering.
 
I think Ebaziyan is trying but is probably difficult to catch right. However, like Westender a few years ago, it shouldnt be a surprise to see him bounce back to form on good ground off a breakneck gallop. I would have liked to have seen some more sparkle this year, even when winning at odds on. Just looks in the doldrums. Ruby will probably stay on him.
 
Gareth,

Al Eile defeated Jazz Messenger over Xmas at a time when the Meade horses were showing signs of something being seriously amiss. Al Eile normally runs best when fresh and the AIG was his third run in the space of two months. It is not unreasonable to assume Al Eile ran below form and that the 8 length margin flatters Sizing Europe.

Al Eile would have been at his peak in the Fighting Fifth and it is foolish to assume Harchibald's defeat of him by only 1.5 lengths compared to the 8 length victory by Sizing Europe. Harchibald will never beat any horse by 8 lengths, always sitting for the final burst in the last furlong.

Hardy Eustace is 11 years old, and judging by his AIG run struggled to lie up in the way he used to - in my eyes he is deteriorating and as with Moscow Flyer the drop in form can come quickly in older horses.

Straw Bear won the Christmas Hurdle , but the same question mark persists over Harchibald as with Jazz Messenger - was he also running whilst under the weather?

Straw Bear's price reflects his chances, although it would not be a total shock were he to win, and he is one of a number of horses layers of Sizing Europe can include in their armoury.

Sublimity's chance is there for all to see, and I don't recall implying this was earth shattering news. Some informed judges have observed the lack of quality in the current crop of two mile hurdlers, and this year's champion won't take a lot of winning. I am yet to see any evidence suggesting Sizing Europe's performance on Sunday is that of a truly top class hurdler in the making - especially given the sectional times compared with the novice hurdle on the same card (as Nick Mordin has pointed out).

I dont see any contradiction in what I have said Gareth.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jan 31 2008, 02:39 PM


IN recent years, they've been averaging about 167-168 and I reckon SE ran to about that figure the other day. My figure for Osana is 176? but that includes the start he got.
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DO
also includes how high ou rate Katchit
based mainly in his hcp mark in his first race of the season at Aintree
Isnt it?
 
This is how I rate them till now:

161Afsoun (6, N. Henderson) 158d$

156Aitmatov (7, N. Meade) 159

145Amaretto Rose (7, N. Henderson) 148P

146Blythe Knight (8, J. Quinn) 150+

147Catch Me (6, O´Grady) 150d

155Ebaziyan (7, W. Mullins) 154+

161Harchibald (9, N. Meade) 163c

158Jazz Messenger(8, N. Meade) 161

159Katchit (5, A. King) 157

163Osana (6, D. Pipe) 157p

166Sizing Europe (6, H de B) 167P

163Straw Bear (7, N. Gifford) 163

165Sublimity (8, J.C) 163+?
 
Where is the evidence that Al Eile runs best fresh?

He has won 5 Graded races. Whilst two of them have come off long breaks, three of them came off breaks of less than a month.

The Racing Post have rated him 160 or higher on seven occasions. In those races, he was coming off breaks of 25, 28, 29, 31, 42, 52 and 106 days.

4-6 weeks is about normal between races for a hurdler being aimed at Grade 1 races and Al Eile has shown his ability to perform at his best off such breaks.

The point about Hardy has already been made - nobody sensible is rating Sizing Europe as if Hardy ran to his Champion Hurdle winning form on Sunday. But by the same token, where is the evidence that he is quickly deteriorating? 1222 in a Grade 2 and 3 Grade 1s in the space of a couple of months?

What you're basically saying is dismiss anything Hardy Eustace has done recently (that's a Grade 2 and second in three Grade 1s in the space of a couple of months), anything Al Eile has done since Newcastle (that's a Grade 1 win and a Grade 1 third), anything Harchibald has done since Newcastle (that's a Grade 1 second) and anything Jazz Messenger did over Christmas (that's a Grade 1 third) because it was all just a big coincidence and Sizing Europe beat nothing on Sunday.

Ok.
 
USEFUL,
Nick Mordin is the only pundit that has denegrated Sizing Europe's AIG---I have always respected his opinion but on this it looks like he has blinders on.
And if I may say so you might have them on also.
I would suggest you read Pat Keane in todays Irish Examiner--SIZING SETS THE STANDARD---can be read on line.
 
Gareth, you haven't answered my question about where I contradicted myself?

Anyhow, of Al Eile's 3 most recent graded hurdle successes, two have come after breaks, and the most recent was his second outing of the season. The third outing was the defeat by Sizing Europe. There are countless examples of Al Eile not holding his form through a season, and he has never put together an uninterrupeted sequence of top class performances - even in his juvenile season he ran a stinkers at both Cheltenham (Triumph) and Punchestown.

Given Al Eile's habit of putting in some very low key performances, anyone considering his performance could be forgiven for thinking his run on Sunday was one of those. We will only truly know the answer to this questino come 11th March.

The form of Hardy Eustace's Ascot win was very weak as Afsoun's subsequent performances show - and those coming during a purple patch for Nick Henderson. Lough Derg comfortably reversed the form in the Long Walk, lending some credence to the argument Hardy Eustace is in decline.

Considering Al Eile's proximity to Hardy Eustace in two Champion Hurdles, beaten 7.5 and 6 lengths respectively, it is fair to say Hardy Eustace has declined this season with little evidence to suggest Al Eile's closing of the gap is due to improvement on his part.

Good luck to you Gareth if you have backed Sizing Europe (I assume you have) and I hope you got bigger than 5/2.
 
Eric C, thanks for that just read it. Granted, on the face value of that appraisal he is home and hosed.

However re-reading Mordin's piece, http://nickmordin.com/ireland.htm, he makes a point about the sectional times in comparison with the maiden hurdle won on the same card which would worry me if I had him backed at 5/2.

Given Mordin's comments, I fail to see how O'Dwyer's comments about Hardy can be taken seriously.

Of course when a "new kid on the block arrives" there will be believers and cynics. In this case I fall into the latter camp. If I am wrong I will happily hold up my hands and say I was wrong.

Although slightly different, I shouted about War of Attrition from the Betfair forum when he was 14s for the Gold Cup the month before he won. So I am not averse to wading in with unexposed contenders for the top honours. I simply see no merit in putting them up as 5/2 shots when they are yet to contest a true championship event.

If anyone came on here tipping him up when he was 8/1 + then fine.
 
Hardy ran to an RPR of 159 over Xmas compared with 166 in the Champion Hurdle last season. He is yet to contest a race this season against a field with any strength in depth, however as it seems he will not be running at Cheltenham it doesn't appear that will find out how much talent he retains.

If you accept his decline can be expressed somewhere in the region of 6-7lbs that would put the performance against Sizing Europe in a different light.
 
Gareth, you haven't answered my question about where I contradicted myself?
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I have - the paragraph beginning "You can't have it both ways".

Anyhow, of Al Eile's 3 most recent graded hurdle successes, two have come after breaks
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You're just ignoring things that don't fit your predetermined opinion. No wonder you're invoking Mordin!

and the most recent was his second outing of the season. The third outing was the defeat by Sizing Europe.
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Only if you ignore his run in the Caeserwitch.

There are countless examples of Al Eile not holding his form through a season, and he has never put together an uninterrupeted sequence of top class performances - even in his juvenile season he ran a stinkers at both Cheltenham (Triumph) and Punchestown.
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Although he did manage a Totesport Tropy third (rated 142), Champion Hurdle 7th (rated 160) and an Aintree Hurdle win (rated 162) in the space of less than 2 months in 2005.

Given Al Eile's habit of putting in some very low key performances, anyone considering his performance could be forgiven for thinking his run on Sunday was one of those.
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When he puts in a bad one it's pretty obvious - the likes of getting hammered 29l by Essex, 40l by Brave Inca, 29l by Rosaker or 49l by Asian Maze.

We will only truly know the answer to this questino come 11th March.
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I doubt it...

Lough Derg comfortably reversed the form in the Long Walk, lending some credence to the argument Hardy Eustace is in decline.
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It lent a lot more credence to the argument that Hardy Eustace doesn't get 3 miles and was given a poor ride.

Considering Al Eile's proximity to Hardy Eustace in two Champion Hurdles, beaten 7.5 and 6 lengths respectively, it is fair to say Hardy Eustace has declined this season with little evidence to suggest Al Eile's closing of the gap is due to improvement on his part.
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Thank you for making my point for me. Now that we agree that Al Eile is about 6-7 lengths off Champion Hurdle class, can you understand why a horse beating him 8l+ is getting all this attention?

Good luck to you Gareth if you have backed Sizing Europe (I assume you have) and I hope you got bigger than 5/2.
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I haven't had a penny on him.
 
I am sorry Gareth but you have not clearly stated where I have allegedly contradicted myself.

As for my views on Al Eile, may I remind you I stated that "Al Eile has usually run better when fresh". I did not state this to be always the case, and I certainly am not in the business of deliberatley ignoring anything to prove a theory.

Form figures of 371 are not those of a top class horse in my opinion, and I do not think he has improved at all since the victory that came at Aintree that season.

Maybe Hardy did not stay 3 miles, maybe not - he stayed it better than every horse bar Lough Derg. It cannot be denied that the from of his earlier Ascot victory has been seriously let down by Afsoun.

I'd rather you didn't misquote me. I do not agree that Al Eile is 6/7 lbs off Champion Hurdle class. I made the point quite clearly that Hardy Eustace is in decline and that I don't believe Al Eile has improved - so the "closing in the gap" between them actually means Hardy Eustace is possibly in steeper decline than official ratings think.

Why do you not think we will truly know the answer on March 11th. Surely if Al Eile and Sizing Europe run to a similar level of form as in the AIG but fail to fill the first two places I will be rigth and you will be wrong?

Not planning your excuses already I hope!
 
Al Eile strikes me as having a good run of consistency, therefore is arguably as reliable a yardstick as there is this season. I’ll be rating SE on a line with Al Eile for the time being, which will put him on about 168p.

In the Bewleys, the form with Al Eile puts Hardy Eustace on 157, some way off his best, JazzMessenger on 156 (2lbs off his OR) and Ebaziyan 153 (7lbs higher than his then OR but 2lbs lower than his new UK mark).

If we have AE running to the same mark at Newcastle, it gives Harchibald (160+) plenty to find, with Katchit (156) some way off his Aintree form (165+).

Sublimity was beaten nearly 20 lengths by Osana, so it’s probably safe to dismiss that run as below par. It might also suggest he’s not yet 100% on his run behind SE the other day.

Osana’s performance is difficult to measure because of the start he got. However, he ran the C&D 24lbs faster than Franchoek (OR 141) and 37lbs faster than Callisto Moon (OR 125). I’m not keen on Penzance as a marker but his 18 length defeat here puts Osana at least alongside Straw Bear and Harchibald on subsequent Kempton form. Katchit’s 165+ at Aintree would make Osana’s 5lbs defeat of him here look very smart indeed but there’s still the issue of the flying start he got. For me, the worst-case scenario is that Osana is ‘only’ a 161 horse, but that’s 9lbs better than in the Greatwood 27 days earlier. Sizing Europe, as someone said elsewhere, had another month before posting his big figure at Leopardstown. It obviously doesn’t mean Osana will have improved another 9lbs in the interim; neither does it mean his curve has flattened out.

Warbler tells us a lot of Irish races are dawdle-and-sprint affairs. I’ve read the time at Leopardstown was fast but does that mean Sizing Europe can churn out fast sections the way Osana did last time? Hopefully Warbler will share his insight with us.

For me, the bottom line is that Sizing Europe, having at least equalled last year’s winning rating, which was the best since Rooster Booster, deserves to be favourite and I reckon 5/2 is about right. However, if the main contenders all go to post, it’s entirely likely he’ll be about that price on the day therefore an ante-post punt is pointless unless you really believe he has another 7lbs to come.

I’m on Osana at 8/1 but he definitely will need to be as good as my ‘best-case’ scenario for him to win.
 
DO, I think Sublimity's form was too bad to be true at Cheltenham behind Osana and he has to be given another chance.

I just don't see how Osana should be 5.5 points longer in the betting. I think the market leader should be around the 4/1 mark (whoever that horse should be) given the openness of the race and the closeness of the main protagonists on ratings.

But we'll see!
 
As for my views on Al Eile, may I remind you I stated that "Al Eile has usually run better when fresh".
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And you have provided little evidence to support it, whereas I have offered plenty of evidence to the contrary.

I did not state this to be always the case, and I certainly am not in the business of deliberatley ignoring anything to prove a theory.
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It's the foundation of your opinion that Al Eile's run on Sunday should be treated with caution.

Form figures of 371 are not those of a top class horse in my opinion
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Neither are 1222, either. One wonders what is?

and I do not think he has improved at all since the victory that came at Aintree that season.
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Neither do I! He doesn't have to have to make Sizing Europe's performance a championship-level performance

Maybe Hardy did not stay 3 miles, maybe not - he stayed it better than every horse bar Lough Derg.
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That's because he's a class horse.

It cannot be denied that the from of his earlier Ascot victory has been seriously let down by Afsoun.
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Presumably so has the Champion Hurdle form, then? Doesn't stop you putting Sublimity forward.

I'd rather you didn't misquote me. I do not agree that Al Eile is 6/7 lbs off Champion Hurdle class
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6-7 lengths is what I said, which is what he was beaten by when Hardy Eustace won his ssecond champion hurdle.

Presumably you don't think Hardy Eustace was a Champion Hurdle class horse either, then?


I made the point quite clearly that Hardy Eustace is in decline and that I don't believe Al Eile has improved - so the "closing in the gap" between them actually means Hardy Eustace is possibly in steeper decline than official ratings think.
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If Hardy Eustace has declined by around half a stone and Al Eile has stayed the same, they'd be finishing closely off level weights.

You know, like what just happened in two races at Leopardstown in the space of a month.

Why do you not think we will truly know the answer on March 11th. Surely if Al Eile and Sizing Europe run to a similar level of form as in the AIG but fail to fill the first two places I will be rigth and you will be wrong?
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Fail to fill the first two places? What are you on about?
 
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