Aintree (other races)

[Frankel]

I don’t know how you can conclude he has regressed other than in his jumping (I agree with jj about the new hurdles) since he hasn’t actually had the chance to show it or not, you can’t do that when you’re on the floor. He had just been loping along and Nico had just brought him off the rail to commence business and ….crash.

Correct. Some of the stuff I have heard and read has tickled me pink.
He looked to have plenty of running left which Nico confirmed.

 

[Mr Whatoxo]

I might also have something in the 5.15, but I'm not on yet, so keeping schtum about that for now.

It would be interesting to read your thoughts on this one.

For such a large field, I couldn’t get much of a short list to work with. Jack Hyde was a possible, but he’s shortened from 18’s when I first looked.

The one I do think worth consideration though is Kings Hill at 66/1. Quickly ran to a good standard as a novice in Ireland and keeping good company this season, he doesn’t look overburdened on 132. Small stable but done well with Buddy One.
At least keep an eye on the market for signs of any interest in him.

 

[Gaz's Way De Solzen]

It was a horrible fall that one, so glad CH got up and seemed ok.

It's only my view/opinion but I don't think his position in the home straight was that great, caught on the leaders' heels and not really given a sight of the hurdles at all, and then the gap between Lossiemouth and Wodhooh diminished as they approached the hurdles. He's tried to put in another step but actually hits the hurdle with his right leg and then goes down.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

Correct. Some of the stuff I have heard and read has tickled me pink.
He looked to have plenty of running left which Nico confirmed.

His jumping has gone mental.

If that doesn't constitute going backwards to you then feel free to back him at Punchestown.

I hope that clarifies my position.

I love the horse to bits I'm just not sure based on his last three runs that he can get round in one piece.

Nicky saying afterwards his jumping is always great and it's a 1 percent chance of happening.

I agree his jumping WAS great but the last three runs point to a different story.

I'd love to see him bounce back and put in an excellent round.

If I were the owner I would never run him at Punchestown after the last few runs.

 

[Len Madeiros]

Like others, I love this horse. That 2022 Supreme was probably the greatest single performance I have seen over hurdles. But I’ve backed against him in his last two races in the forecast markets. There’s the betting angle.

 

[Ian_Davies]

It would be interesting to read your thoughts on this one.

of potential interest, as is Hamsiyann IF it gets in.

The latter was runner up in a Chester Cup off OR87 (for which he was fairly put up to OR91), showed he can be a force over timber when winning at Cheltenham and no way does a 10lb hike to OR121 cripple his potential over a trip in this sphere.

He's got a big 3m handicap hurdle in him off his current mark, Musselburgh lapse notwithstanding.

Trouble is his mark is so low he keeps failing to make the cut in the kind of races (like this one) they clearly want to have a crack at.

So here is Exhibit A, taken from another thread.

Have I backed the overnight gamble?

Well, yes, I have - runs off its mark here and the jockey booking is significant.

This horse is chucked in on its Chester Cup form on the Flat.

But I think it wants at least 2m4f over timber and preferably 3m.

It could find things happening too quickly for it here, so I'm not exactly brimming with confidence.

Afadil ought to run well in this again and ran a stormer in the Imperial Cup.

And I can think of at least four others who should be on the premises in a competitive affair.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

I'd say Lossiemouth was travelling marginally the better at the time.

I reckon I'm a step closer to getting paid out on my bets on Constitution Hill to never win another Champion Hurdle.

On a more positive note, I've got rather a large price win only Wellington Arch (2.20) tomorrow and, possibly against my better judgement, I will be giving Kopeck De Mee another chance too.

I might also have something in the 5.15, but I'm not on yet, so keeping schtum about that for now.

I'm with you on Wellington Arch. Good luck.

I can't get my head around why The Changing Man is only 12/1 for the Grade 1 tomorrow, as it could be argued at the weights, he should be a 25/1 chance.

Unless of course, the beast that beat him last time, Myretown, is a Gold Cup contender next year or something? He was giving him a stone last time I suppose.

Have stranger things really happend?

 

[edgt]

Lots of horses have made a horlicks of hurdles up the home straight at Aintree; Night Nurse, Danoli, Brave Inca spring to mind immediately. Not all fell but it happens when they are quickening .
Once they are all okay that is the main thing.

 

[Frankel]

His jumping has gone mental.

If that doesn't constitute going backwards to you then feel free to back him at Punchestown.

I hope that clarifies my position.

I agreed with Barjon, who mentioned his jumping.
Also agreed with the rest of it.

He was always going to be held on to over this trip given his last trip to Aintree.

He was moving plenty easily enough to pick her up when he fell. Townend made his move rightly so. It was though plenty early enough for CH to reel her in easy enough.

They do have to be jumped though!

 

[The Fortune Teller]

Yes I think we all want to see him put in a clear round.

Question is, if you were the owner/trainer do you take the chance and run at Punchestown?

Maybe going right handed again might boost his confidence a bit?

He never put a foot wrong at Kempton on Boxing Day to be fair.

 

[Frankel]

He's not too shabby left handed tbf!

Newmarket will be grabbing my attention that week. The elite beasts roll in to town!

 

[tiggers1972]

This is actually the third time in a row he's put in a bad jump as during his win in the Cleeve he jumped bad aswell, but didn't fall.

He's clearly gome backwards, between end of 2023 and this season, even though looking at Kempton on Boxing Day, some of the rough diamond is still there. He also had that wind surgery in May, but it hasn't helped.

Make no bones about it a fraction here or there and he might not have even got up today.

I couldn't blame Nico or the hurdles myself.

The last thing I would do now is send him to Punchestown.

4th time, he launched himself at about the 4th in the Xmas hurdle too.
As Jinny says (I'm sure Davy Russell has mentioned it too), it could be these new hurdles.
Punchestown doesn't have those.

 

[Generous1991]

4.05

View attachment 24077

I must admit, when I do a race like this and add in the current best odds and see so many runners at really big prices, I do get a wee tingle of excitement. When they then end up near the top of my ratings table it intensifies. This is the kind of race that requires a blunderbuss approach but I’ll have a decent win bet on Blue Lord because it might just outclass them all. Smaller win bets on Amirite and Bad are in order. After that, I want onside the likes of French Dynamite, Western Zephyr, Ash Tree Meadow, Dreal Deal, Ginny’s Destiny and Excello but my main fancy of the outsiders is Jetoile who has probably been targeting this all season and who is lobbed in on his best form. He went up to 150 for winning last season’s Old Roan and was only beaten 5 lengths off 145 in a £100+k handicap at Punchestown in the spring. I suspect that’s when this plan was hatched and they’ve done very well to get him down to 136 and the claimer won’t have any problem getting the weight down.

Interesting reading on prominent runners in the Topham, which gives a mention to Ginny's D and Western Z.

Front-runners who specialise at the distance the obvious place to start in wide-open Topham Chase

The Topham is famous for what it shares with the Grand National, but as a race it is most interesting where it differs. Being 40 per cent shorter is... Read More

www.racingpost.com

 

[Ian_Davies]

I saw Western Zephyr win his Maiden Point-to-Point at Barbury - backed him too at 5/1 and put a clip of the closing stages up on my Twitter.

The fact he's running in the Topham today makes racing the great game it is.

 

[jinnyj]

4th time, he launched himself at about the 4th in the Xmas hurdle too.
As Jinny says (I'm sure Davy Russell has mentioned it too), it could be these new hurdles.
Punchestown doesn't have those.

I just wonder if the big stark white rail focusses his attention too much which is why he takes off so soon. Plus they are pretty solid in comparison to the old birch filled hurdles with a thinner orange rail on the top. When a horse does it it, the hurdle seems heavier so falls look more severe. Watching CH's fall again this morning, he was a lucky horse to escape unscathed.

I don't know what to suggest as Hendo says, he jumps well at home. But that's different to galloping at racing pace with other horses around you which take off a split second before yours which may influence your horse. Its a difficult one to solve. We had pointers who walked through fences so we took them showjumping schooling and placed a rail the other side of the fence so they'd always expect something on the other side. But even if you did that or maybe do a line of poles on the ground in front to get him to concentrate and think, racing conditions are very different.

 

[Desert Orchid]

A couple of things:

Surely they have these hurdles in all the training establishments? Surely a top trainer like Hendo wouldn't leave that kind of stone unturned?

I watched a different angle of the fall this morning. It looked to me like CH just took off a length too early. Whether that was because Nico asked him to, ergo jockey error, or the horse surprised him by doing so, is what I can't figure.

I hope CH goes to Punchestown. He didn't have a hard race yesterday and, for me, is still the best horse in these lands by a long way. I think he has just been unlucky the last twice after being lucky to get away with mistakes in the other two races. Until then he's been brilliant at his hurdles but Hendo mentioned a year ago that he was 'almost too good' because there is no margin for error in the way he hurdles. Recent events have unfortunately proved that.

Deep down, I have to say, regrettably, I think Nico is at fault on him.

 

[Len Madeiros]

I think until we see CH ridden by someone other than Nico, the jury is still out regarding the continued greatness of the horse.

And those riding arrangements are not going to change until Nico steps aside himself. That’s exactly what he should do; after all, he was the beneficiary after Barry Geraghty stepped aside after Sprinter Sacre’s heart scare.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I think Nico De Boinvile is routinely the most unfairly criticised jumps jockeys holding a licence.

His surname doesn't help him with some on social media (I don't mean you, Len).

I have to declare a tiny conflict of interest as I've met Nico and I think he's a tremendous bloke, but I wouldn't let that cloud my judgement.

He's given countless scintillating tactical top-class rides at Grade 1 level, particularly when winning the Champion Chase on Sprinter Sacre.

Yesterday wouldn't have been his finest hour, but he was on a horse they were holding up (quite understandably) to get the trip, the other jockeys boxed him in and it just wasn't his day.

Ruby Walsh ended up on the deck at the business end of big races far more often that Nico has, but Walsh was never considered a "posh boy" so never took 1% of the flak Nico gets.

 

[Len Madeiros]

I think Nico De Boinvile is routinely the most unfairly criticised jumps jockeys holding a licence.

His surname doesn't help him with some on social media (I don't mean you, Len).

I have to declare a tiny conflict of interest as I've met Nico and I think he's a tremendous bloke, but I wouldn't let that cloud my judgement.

He's given countless scintillating tactical top-class rides at Grade 1 level, particularly when winning the Champion Chase on Sprinter Sacre.

Yesterday wouldn't have been his finest hour, but he was on a horse they were holding up (quite understandably) to get the trip, the other jockeys boxed him in and it just wasn't his day.

Ruby Walsh ended up on the deck at the business end of big races far more often that Nico has, but Walsh was never considered a "posh boy" so never took 1% of the flak Nico gets.

I don’t knock him because he’s a posh boy, but I know some who do. I just think something has gone wrong with CH (I don’t think he was coming there to win yesterday), but we won’t know that conclusively until Nico lets someone else ride the horse.

As it is, there’s a big risk that CH’s next fall will be his last fall.

 

[jinnyj]

Oh I do love Caldwell Potter when he gets into a rhythm

 

[Ian_Davies]

I reckon the ground was riding fastest of all on the Mildmay Chase Course yesterday and Caldwell Potter has handled it best under a brilliant ride from Harry Cobden there, I'd say.

 

[Generous1991]

I don't know what he beat in the absence of Handstands and Dancing City, but that was a very impressive jump at the last. There's nothing like a reliable jumper!

 

[mhart221]

Caldwell Potter stuck that out better than I thought he would there. Race somewhat fell apart in fairness. I still don't he'll win a GC but Aintree/Kempton/Haydock could very well be doable.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I thought Cobden was superb on him as he didn't jump that fluently early on.

But you could see Cobden counting the strides into the obstacles the way John Francome used to do and got him in a great rhythm.

No coincidences in this game and when a horse meets an obstacle on a stride that's down to the pilot.

Doesn't look QUITE so expensive now, does he, the grey?

 

[jinnyj]

Never heard PFN so emotionally relieved at this horse winning. Think he will be better with another year too.