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Aintree (other races)

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,229
Location
Leyland
Cracking looking three days in store. It's not a mega betting meeting for me but there's some interesting races to get involved in.

Manifesto:
I think Rubaud is too big for this at around 14s. He showed he stayed this trip in the Pendil and to me despite his good hurdling form at Kempton he didn't look at home on the chase course there. Fresher than the Cheltenham horses I think he's worth a dabble at double figures.

Bowl:
I think this is priced right and I have small possies on both Grey Dawning and Spillane's Tower for next year's Ryanair so will watch with interest.

Aintree Hurdle:
Constitution Hill must be opposed in this, he's not a 2m4 horse it's just who lines up against him. Wary of Elliott at this meeting.

Top Novices:
Would want to oppose Romeo Coolio here and Tripoli Flyer looks the likeliest candidate - would want more than 7/2 though.

Liverpool Hurdle:
I'm awaiting prices on this, will be backing Strong Leader on his favourite track so long as the opposition means he's a good price - I see Kitzbuhel is entered, hopefully he'll run.
 
It's good to see you about, Euro.

I've backed two horses ante post. Both have jockeys booked up for the rides so I'm assuming they are intended runners.

Dr TJ Eckleburg in the Red Rum. Unlike The Grand Annual he should make the cut this time, I just hope there's a bit of juice in the ground. I think he handles different goings, but might be better on softer. He's generally improved all year and I've got him on my side. If his jumping holds up hopefully he'll be staying on well at the finish.

Marble Sands in the Topham. There's several pieces of good form this has, including beating the talented but quirky Colonel Harry at the start of the season. I hope the trainer has him 100 percent as I think this has a chance.

Edit, looking at the current ground, you'd have to be a bit worried as to whether Dr TJ will go on it. He did win on good to firm on the flat and has won on better ground before, but that's going back some time now. Here's hoping.
 
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Euronymous said:
Aintree Hurdle:
Constitution Hill must be opposed in this, he's not a 2m4 horse it's just who lines up against him. Wary of Elliott at this meeting.
Click to expand...
In 2023 Constitution Hill was at the peak of his powers - he had broken the clock when the most impressive Supreme winner since Golden Cygnet the previous March, and then won the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle in cold blood before winning the Champion Hurdle with his head in his chest.

Comfortably his LEAST impressive victory was his subsequent one in the Aintree Hurdle - he won with a tiny degree of comfort, but looked like he didn't appreciate the step up in trip and it might even have been a factor in sticking to hurdling rather than chasing a Gold Cup dream over fences with a horse that probably wouldn't stay 3m2f in a horsebox.

If there's anything half decent in the race that can get him "at it," Constitution Hill's army of "Racing Blogger" odds-on lumpers (plus a few who ought to be old enough to know better) might get a second lesson in as many months that trying to "buy money" is the long-term super highway to the poor house.
 
Ian_Davies said:
In 2023 Constitution Hill was at the peak of his powers - he had broken the clock when the most impressive Supreme winner since Golden Cygnet the previous March, and then won the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle in cold blood before winning the Champion Hurdle with his head in his chest.

Comfortably his LEAST impressive victory was his subsequent one in the Aintree Hurdle - he won with a tiny degree of comfort, but looked like he didn't appreciate the step up in trip and it might even have been a factor in sticking to hurdling rather than chasing a Gold Cup dream over fences with a horse that probably wouldn't stay 3m2f in a horsebox.

If there's anything half decent in the race that can get him "at it," Constitution Hill's army of "Racing Blogger" odds-on lumpers (plus a few who ought to be old enough to know better) might get a second lesson in as many months that trying to "buy money" is the long-term super highway to the poor house.
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I'm not suggesting CH is a betting proposition let alone a 'buying money' one but I don't see how he loses.

I watched his Aintree Hurdle earlier today. Nico was already easing him approaching the last and as CH started to idle on the run-in he shook him up a wee bit and he was starting to go away again at the line.

They spoke about the Ascot Gold Cup after that, perhaps not seriously, but if they think 2.5m at G1 level on the Flat is within his compass then over hurdles he should be able to do it with Paul Nicholls on his back.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
It's good to see you about, Euro.

I've backed two horses ante post. Both have jockeys booked up for the rides so I'm assuming they are intended runners.

Dr TJ Eckleburg in the Red Rum. Unlike The Grand Annual he should make the cut this time, I just hope there's a bit of juice in the ground. I think he handles different goings, but might be better on softer. He's generally improved all year and I've got him on my side. If his jumping holds up hopefully he'll be staying on well at the finish.

Marble Sands in the Topham. There's several pieces of good form this has, including beating the talented but quirky Colonel Harry at the start of the season. I hope the trainer has him 100 percent as I think this has a chance.

Edit, looking at the current ground, you'd have to be a bit worried as to whether Dr TJ will go on it. He did win on good to firm on the flat and has won on better ground before, but that's going back some time now. Here's hoping.
Click to expand...
Dr TJ Eckleburg is one of 14 runners in the Red Rum Handicap Chase. Last year's winner Sans Bruit has been declared, and Matata may run instead in Friday's Melling Chase.
 
Jayhawk said:
Dr TJ Eckleburg is one of 14 runners in the Red Rum Handicap Chase. Last year's winner Sans Bruit has been declared, and Matata may run instead in Friday's Melling Chase.
Click to expand...
The Red Rum looks like an interesting handicap. I'm looking forward to reading some more analysis from other forumites about it.

The Dr is a bit of a cliff horse for me now. I think he's got an each way chance but it's an open looking race isn't it.
 
I considered putting the other half of my money Constitution Hill with Betfair but on reflection I would never get matched. So I am having a 24 pound treble on him Jonbon and Lulamba
 
I've taken 9/2 My Drogo in the Foxhunters. He doesn’t feature high up in the order of RPRs for the race but he’s rated on his seasonal form which has been in PTPs and a low level hunter chase. Four years ago he won the G1 novice hurdle at this meeting and went up to 155 for it, so should have gone up to 165 as a novice chaser. A fall with the race at his mercy and a win, both times at Cheltenham, that autumn bode well but he was off after that until two poor runs last season which put a different complexion on his profile. He transferred out of the Skelton yard at Christmas and seems to have been revitalised by his new trainer. If he is anywhere near as good as he once promised to be he could win this with his head in his chest. I reckon you’re getting 9/2 about him getting round. Will Biddick rides.
 
He'd be a good shout DO to be fair. I will probably back him and Famous Clermont who won this so well two years ago. They missed it last year and went to Punchestown where he didn't stay on the ground. He only gets 3m on a flat course (so this trip is perfect for him) hence getting beaten first time out this year plus his trainer had moved yards and it has taken a while for his horses to get going. FC won last time at Cothelstone and looked a picture and his trainer is now firing in some nice winners again. He used to be a bit of a nutjob as a youngster but Biddick and Barber have done a great job with him. Its a huge shame that Biddick split with Barber but James King is a pretty good sub and won on him last time.
 
yorick said:
I'm sticking my neck out here with what could be a surprise. The horse in question is Minella Missile. Here's one that, at the age of seven, has had just five races under rules.

He had a great novice hurdle season and won three times before the setback that took him off the racecourse for 429 days. The last of those three was the defeat of Paul Nicholls' Captain Teague by over a length in receipt of 5Lbs. CT eventually ended up on a rating of 142, winning the Grade two Challow Hurdle at Newbury off a mark of 140. given that, we might have expected MM to be rated around the same mark+.

Since his return to the track, it would seem that he has disappointed. If this race was the plan all along, we can see that those three subsequent defeats were excusable.

We should bear in mind that when he beat CT it was over today's C/D on g/sft so the three runs so far would not have been ideal: 3m too long, 2m too short, 3m again too far and all on soft ground when he favours less cut, as can be seen by his victories.

Today he's back over his best trip, on his preferred ground and off a mark of 133.

40/1 for 6 places 365 looks reasonable to me. Even had a free bet on Betfair Exchange at 50's
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Minella Missile has been declared for the 2:20 race at Aintree on Friday over two and a half miles. Now rated 131 and his price is currently 33/1. Hansard - needs a strong pace apparently - is 20/1.
 
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