Aintree - Thursday

granger said:
Do you think he stayed in the KG?

Geraghty takes the mount over BP so some stable confidence behind him
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no i don't..and neither do connections or they would have carried on at that trip

finishing a 12 length 2nd in a race doesn't prove stamina at that trip/class imo

Long Run is a 175 horse on all form we now know...so RT is a 163 horse at 3 miles at "easy" Kempton..there are 2 horses at least rated better than that in Thursdays race + unknown Hunt Ball. If the extra furlong ..hard race..going left handed reduce that 163 to mid 150's then most of the field are better than him under Thursdays conditions.

place lay is a no brainer..to me..but we all read form differently ..so i hope he gets backed real short
 
Interesting stuff Ec1. I won't be backing in the race either way but I don't think that RT is the same horse he was on that KG day


Hunt Ball should place at least
 
EC1 said:
no i don't..and neither do connections or they would have carried on at that trip

finishing a 12 length 2nd in a race doesn't prove stamina at that trip/class imo

Long Run is a 175 horse on all form we now know...so RT is a 163 horse at 3 miles at "easy" Kempton..there are 2 horses at least rated better than that in Thursdays race + unknown Hunt Ball. If the extra furlong ..hard race..going left handed reduce that 163 to mid 150's then most of the field are better than him under Thursdays conditions.

place lay is a no brainer..to me..but we all read form differently ..so i hope he gets backed real short
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Connections didn't "carry on at that trip" due to a fractured pelvis which ruled him out of the subsequent KG, and RyanAir or Gold Cup was a no brainer.
Nacarat won't stay on soft ground at this level, Hunt Ball races against horses 20lb or more superior to those he's met thus far, and Burton Port is rejected in RT's favour, who's already twice beaten Medermit going away from him.
Aintree's sharper than Kempton so the extra furlong shouldn't be too much of a problem, the way he finished his last race suggests it may even be a bonus, so I wouldn't bet against him winning the race, let alone placing.
 
Fairyhouse, Aintree and Punchestown have to be treated with extreme caution. The results this weekend at Fairyhouse with the ground changed has further added to my trepidation. Will be treading very carefully this week and would imagine the two meetings at Dundalk and Leopardstown will provide better opportunities if not for punting at least clues to the rest of the season. Good luck to those playing.....I strongly fancied Seabass in the National and believe Ruby choose as he did in order to give his sister a chance to make history but I cannot see him staying 4 and a half miles on soft ground.
 
granger said:
What's your angle?
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I thought he had a very hard race at Cheltenham-he was possibly the gamest winner at the festival.I personally think the stable have gone off the boil-NJH is no stranger to having a nightmare at Aintree.I also feel the horse isn't at his best late in the season.
 
He did have a hard race at the Festival, mainly due being outpaced and outjumped on the fastish ground, and that lack of pace has been a feature in most of his 'late season' defeats over lesser trips..
However, he's had a month to get over the Cheltenham, runs here in preference to the shorter and more valuable Melling, and the way he ran in the RyanAir strongly suggests he'll improve again over further, as he was doing before injury curtailed his previous season.
Everything points to the stable fancying him equally to his earlier wins this year, he's clearly the class horse in the race, and I really would be loathe to oppose him.
 
Medermit and Nacarat for me.

As for Big Buck's, well it would have been nice to see him tackle the Aintree Hurdle but I certainly don't want to see him lose tomorrow. He's a champ and the run he's on is terrific.

I'd like to see Poungach run a nice race, and I'm hoping he'll go over fences next season. He's one I'm keeping an eye on as he's a lovely horse.
 
The best value in the race for me is Master of the Hall.

Fresh, course distance (from half the price Nacarat) won in very taking style last time out at Kelso, like a class animal beating decent handicappers in the style that he should. I think 16s is too big. Still on the upgrade, I dont think all cheltenham horses will perform to their best, and he has a good shot at this being the day he improves past them.

Tinkler getting him jumping should see him in the three at least.
 
HawkWing said:
The best value in the race for me is Master of the Hall.

Fresh, course distance (from half the price Nacarat) won in very taking style last time out at Kelso, like a class animal beating decent handicappers in the style that he should. I think 16s is too big. Still on the upgrade, I dont think all cheltenham horses will perform to their best, and he has a good shot at this being the day he improves past them.

Tinkler getting him jumping should see him in the three at least.
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Impressed when beating trees at Kelso, but all his best form is in muddling races, suggesting he's a bit of a flat-track bully. When he's under pressure, he can down tools dramatically, which makes him look a risky proposition in any competitive affair. Andrew Tinkler isn't on my list of jockeys to get a horse jumping well, as soft falls from steering jobs Line Freedom (Fakenham) and Heather Royal (Lingfield) in recent times testify.

Don't let me put you off, though :whistle:
 
My idea of the race of the day on Thursday is the Fox Hunters' where a mammoth field of 26 line up. Mention of My Way de Solzen on another thread made me all nostalgic and I've been re-watching some of his old races. He really is a superb jumper of a fence, and has been carefully nursed back by Gabe Mahon, winning 2 points and a hunter chase since leaving Alan King under a cloud. He'll set out at the head of affairs and jump this lot into submission. Gwanako makes the market, but having won the Topham in 2008, he's looked to hate the experience of Aintree in 2 subsequent starts, famously tossing Sam Thomas over the Chair on one occasion (see link), and falling heavily at Valentines in the 2009 renewal of that race. That should make MWDS a backable price, and he looks the bet of the entire week.


http://bit.ly/HuXplM
 
Excellent news. I was at Cheltenham when he won his Arkle and will have a few quid on him tomorrow for old times sake.
 
Nicholls is firing plenty of amnunition tomorrow in his bid to win trainers title.Still not too late to get on at 7/4.
 
28th of April-the day my daughter makes her first communion.Need Nicholls to win this to pay for food and drink.
 
LUKE said:
Nicholls is firing plenty of amnunition tomorrow in his bid to win trainers title.Still not too late to get on at 7/4.
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It's ironic isn't it? He hasn't the quality that Henderson has and has regressed to playing the role Pipe used to against him. What goes round comes round.
 
rorydelargy said:
Impressed when beating trees at Kelso, but all his best form is in muddling races, suggesting he's a bit of a flat-track bully. When he's under pressure, he can down tools dramatically, which makes him look a risky proposition in any competitive affair. Andrew Tinkler isn't on my list of jockeys to get a horse jumping well, as soft falls from steering jobs Line Freedom (Fakenham) and Heather Royal (Lingfield) in recent times testify.

Don't let me put you off, though :whistle:
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Agreed, I wouldn't let Tinkler up on a rocking horse for fear of him getting the horse in trouble. Remember seeing him one day, race in the bag coming to last in Haydock. Asking for a big one, Hemming's horse with a big future, and horse breaking a shoulder. Disgusting behaviour.
 
I don't think you can say Nicholls has "regressed to playing the Pipe role".

He's running a lot of horses tomorrow but all are worth their place and I doubt he is running anything that he wouldn't be running if he was £1m clear in the Championship.
 
Trustan Times is interesting in the last tomorrow. The yards in excellent form having had two winners yesterday at big prices on the flat. I don't believe Tim Easterby is sending this one here thinking it doesn't have a good E/W shout. His rating doesn't exactly look lenient to me at 132 but he's very interesting now pitched in this grade of race with a light weight. He won his novice hurdle well (since dissapointed in novice chases but back hurdling now) at 20F so you'd have had to think this horse was always going to be a long distance hurdler. That could be the key I think, the step up in trip.
 
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jft2005 said:
Luke, have you backed Nicholls to be top aintree trainer or to win the trainers championship for the season?
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To be champion trainer for the season.Will be my only
bet this week -apart fom the National.Taking a half day tomorrow to shout back Chemical Nickys horses.
 
LUKE said:
To be champion trainer for the season.Will be my only
bet this week -apart fom the National.Taking a half day tomorrow to shout back Chemical Nickys horses.
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Oopps. I followed your advice, but went for top trainer at Aintree at 2-1. If Nicholls is to win the champion trainer for the season, he will probably have to be top trainer at Aintree too. Hope I have f'd this up!
 
Boxer Georg to romp home in the Foxhunters' tomorrow. Looks to have been kept fresh for this and at around 10's is a fair price to go 1 better than last year:whistle:
 
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