Aintree

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
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19,196
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Leyland
Entries out for day one and Hills have priced most of the races up. Initial thoughts:

Wouldn't oppose Pied Piper in the Juvenile race

Conflated and Protektorat look solid at 7/2 for the Bowl. Kemboy at 10s is marginal value but he's getting on a bit now

Zanahiyr and Epatante co favs at 2s for the Hurdle. Fair. Quilixios at 12s is interesting on decent ground.

Fancied Before Midnight for the Grand Annual but he was pulled because of the rain. He's 8/1 for the Red Rum, that's a bet.
 
I'd want to take-on the jt-faves in the Aintree Hurdle, and I think I'll do so with the outer of the party.

Guard Your Dreams intermediate trip form actually stacks-up pretty handy (close up Coral Hurdle run against Buzz, handicap win off top-weight vs Coole Cody, plus other bits and bobs), which suggests to me Hills are taking a bit of a chance at 25/1.

Protektorat looks solid in the Bowl, but no surprise either if Clan Des Obeaux fu*cked everybody over.
 
Thursday’s decs are out and while we’re missing real superstars, from a betting perspective it’s refreshing to see a decent number of runners in each race with what should be fairly open betting.
 
Just had a good lift at Exeter which was part of aplan to back Epatante.

I know Nicky said she doesn't want 2m4f but there's no known pacemaker in this
althouh PN may have McFabulous in there to try and ensure a strong gallop.

Can't say I am too concerned as I reckon Epatante is a classier individual than
Zanahiyr and Aiden just need to be patient to pick him off in the closing stages.

The exeter winner allows me to back Epatante 15/8 5 Star*****bet without too much worry

I also like the look of Royal Pigaille 8/1 EW 4 Places 1 Star*bet
 
As a Mister Fisher backer ( in know i know but Fakir had a hard race at Ascot and the other market leaders are non-stayers) not happy about that.
 
He did me a favour back in January but I rckon he's had his day in the sun.


Fakir D'oudairies looks the obvious one but I like Saint Calvados
this trip could be right up his street and was motoring around this distance in the King George.
 
Tanlic said:
He did me a favour back in January but I rckon he's had his day in the sun.


Fakir D'oudairies looks the obvious one but I like Saint Calvados
this trip could be right up his street and was motoring around this distance in the King George.
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No bigger fan of the Saint than me, Tanlic, but I'd be wary of him after having broken blood vessels at Ascot last time.
 
He was 7/2 to beat Fakir D'oudairies that day now he's 12/1 and he's not known for bursting so it's very likely been a one off.

He could be a knocking EW bet at 12/1 4 places with Betfred
 
Day 1
I ridiculed Pic D'orhy on the odds-on thread but he's not even fav for the Manifesto. I can't have that, he's still the most likely winner. Small bet material at 3s

I've had a score on Itchy Feet at 66s in the Bowl.

Before Midnight a solid bet in the Red Rum. Frero Banbou might be the most overbet handicapper of the year.
 
Tanlic said:
He was 7/2 to beat Fakir D'oudairies that day now he's 12/1 and he's not known for bursting so it's very likely been a one off.

He could be a knocking EW bet at 12/1 4 places with Betfred
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Like I say, I was always a big fan of this horse and figured there was a big race in him, however, my enthusiasm for that position has been tempered significantly of late. He has basically failed to finish his races since Min beat him in the Ryanair, and whilst most of those have come over 3m, the one over this sort of trip was the most worrying.

My suspicions is that Saint Calvados was knocked a bit bandy by the virus in Whittington's yard when he was based there, and the move to Nicholls was obviously an attempt to freshen him up. That worked (sort of) at Kempton, but he looked a horse with something bothering him physically at Ascot. I reckon he may well be best after a decent break (his record tends to support this), and I'd be worried about a relatively quick turnout after the Ascot Chase. Four places is a decent concession, but he'd need to be operating at near his best to kick a few of these out of the places, imo.
 
Grasshopper said:
Now 7/2 with PP. Something smells.
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Yes, the drift has put me right off. Strictly, I shouldn’t touch him with a barge pole now, but I’ll wait and see what happens tomorrow before deciding finally. Was going to be one of my major bets of the meeting, too :( . It won’t be now, even if it strengthens up.
 
Tanlic said:
He did me a favour back in January but I rckon he's had his day in the sun.


Fakir D'oudairies looks the obvious one but I like Saint Calvados
this trip could be right up his street and was motoring around this distance in the King George.
Click to expand...

I'm with you on this Tan.i only got 9s but I'm happy with that.its the KG form I like.
 
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I few I will be looking at if they run.
Empire steel 330csat
Dan's le vent 145 sat 3m.
Albert's back 16/1 515fri mick easterby booked Jack Tudor.
Nells son 225 sat 25/1 is a big price .N.Richards.
 
Shortie treble for me today (along with a mad ew Lucky 15 on outers):

Erne River (been backed in from 5's early in the week, and still unexposed)
Pied Piper (have to think his third in the Triumph is better form than Brazil's win off 137)
Zanahiyr (looks sure to benefit from step-up, as all he does at 2m is stay-on - Epatante won't get home, imo)
 
barjon said:
Yes, the drift has put me right off. Strictly, I shouldn’t touch him with a barge pole now, but I’ll wait and see what happens tomorrow before deciding finally. Was going to be one of my major bets of the meeting, too :( . It won’t be now, even if it strengthens up.
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Still 7/2, so nothing to make me happier. Going out so can’t keep watching points - taken a small bet although I shouldn’t.

In the following race I reckon Impulsive One will run a lot better than 40/1, but whether better enough to place, maybe.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Pied Piper (have to think his third in the Triumph is better form than Brazil's win off 137)
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I think things generally point to the Triumph being an average renewal. The Boodles is/was ultra-competitive.

Take Brazil out and we'd all be talking about the Gaelic horse was absolutely thrown in yet Brazil beat him despite having a rougher passage than the day after a vindaloo and six pints of Guinness.
 
We've had 3 different favourites for the first at Aintree in as many days.

I have aterrible habit of underestimating Paul Nichols as a trainer and tend to forget the amount of rabbits the guy pulls out of a hat.

I really don't fancy Pic D'Orhy so I am having 25 quid on despite myself.:blink:
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think things generally point to the Triumph being an average renewal. The Boodles is/was ultra-competitive.

Take Brazil out and we'd all be talking about the Gaelic horse was absolutely thrown in yet Brazil beat him despite having a rougher passage than the day after a vindaloo and six pints of Guinness.
Click to expand...

Although the time of the Boodles was much slower compared to standard than the other 2m hurdle races that day


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