American Successes

I'm not sure what the effect will be, which you've picked up on.

Trainers might just duck Ascot completely rather than take on US speedballs and look for a gentler test elsewhere. But most trainers are already inclined to avoid Ascot with their juveniles.

A more developed programme for early two year olds, maybe to include a Gr1 race at the Newmarket July meeting, might liven things up.
 
That would be my best guess Grey.

I've seen a similar rating for a filly at this time of year previously (and she went on to win the Guineas). I've never seen these figures for Ascot though and tend associate them with September. My best guess is they're about 3 months further forward than our lot, which at this stage of a season is quite a gap to bridge.

Like I noted Jealous Again ran a time just 0.01 secs different over 5F at Churchill, to that put up by Fleeting Spirit in the Flying Childers when setting Doncaster's new juvenile course record
 
That would be my best guess Grey.

I've seen a similar rating for a filly at this time of year previously (and she went on to win the Guineas). I've never seen these figures for Ascot though and tend associate them with September. My best guess is they're about 3 months further forward than our lot, which at this stage of a season is quite a gap to bridge.

Like I noted Jealous Again ran a time just 0.01 secs different over 5F at Churchill, to that put up by Fleeting Spirit in the Flying Childers when setting Doncaster's new juvenile course record

agree...2yos running 118 figures on my calcs are late September/October...not June...and even then they are very top flight ones

if the next two over the next two days are the same I would say its not possible that any of ours can beat them...for instance..the best we have..CC is inferior by about 8 lbs to todays winner...anyone know of a 2yo we have thats 8lb better than CC?
 
I would imagine the new flatter straight track has much to do with these US horses winning as they can sustain their early speed whereas the older stiffer track may have found them out. 6f tomorrow will be interesting but as they have done me plenty of favours already, I think I shall stick with them.
 
Scenic Blast, a 5yo horse, won in 59.54s carrying 9st 4lb.

Jealous Again, a 2yo filly, won in 1m 0.53s carring 8st 12lb.

So a second slower, which is 6 lengths, or ~20lbs depending on your flavour of poundage. Add on the 6lbs extra that Scenic Blast carried makes it 26lbs.

However, Jealous Again would have received a WFA allowance of 32lbs. Plus her 3lb fillies' allowance, leaving her 9lbs, or ~3 lengths ahead :)

And that's without taking into account the likely slower ground today...
 
she was 1 second slower than the King Stand..and the going is slower today either due to watering or the times are affected by the x wind.

if you equalise the going ..or whatever has affected the times today..then Jealous Again ran a time just 3lb slower than Scenic Blast..thats unreal.
 
Given the massive WFA allowance she'd get, why wouldn't she win? Wouldn't be particularly shocking for a top 2yo sprinter to win an all-aged Group 1.
 
If she is this good I do not quite understand what she is doing over here. Obviously hugely impressive but I'd like to see her do it in Group 1 company in her own age group before expecting her to beat hardened Aussie sprinters.

Are these two year olds due to stay over for anything else or straight back?
 
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Ward said he was sending Strike The Tiger back - tbh I think after this success he may be tempted to stay over here and see what's what on other European courses, particularly with todays filly and possibly Aegean.
 
I've long harboured a believe that forward 2yo's with their concessions could compete with older horses. Then along came Kingsgate Native in the Nunthorpe!!!!

Yep .... she'd have won with her concessions Gal based on the figures, and especially if she could be drawn 1 again!!!

I bet he wishes he put his entry in the Jubilee now after the way he ran on from what looked like last at halfway
 
its certainly been an eyeopener...can't wait to see Aegean

to balance it up..I'd like him to bring them them over in September..we might have caught them up by then:)
 
True, but minimum weight rules mean Scenic Blast would carry over 10st (10st 5lbs, I think).

Plenty of those who study such things reckon the official WFA scale is too generous to 2yos on the rare occasions that they take on their elders. Timeform's scale would only give her 21lbs of WFA at this time of the year.
 
I think the American and Australian influence is good for the game. You must remember that when Fasliyev was running, Gosden said there wasn't much point in taking on a three year old in a two year olds body. So European trainers are well capable of getting two year olds to be speed monsters too and last the season. Or what about the 2 year old wonder Arazi. I didn't hear the Americans complain when he won. In fact they wanted him back for the Kentucky Derby. The Australians were very insular in their approach to Dermot Weld but have mellowed a bit over time and now see the advantages of international raiders in making it an international event. It is unlikely there will be an influx of American runners given the low level of prizemoney versus the states. It just adds to the glamour of the meeting and anyone who is against that is against free markets, where everyone is welcome to compete and the best horse on the day wins.
 
Cantoris you mentioned my favourite horse of all time(although it was a 1 season wonder) ARAZI coming round the bend in the BC juvenile a beautiful sight
 
Try this

run a mile carrying 2 bags of shopping

then run it again without them

shall we bet on which is the fastest time?

Well if its Dessie doing the running, and if he's required to do it straight afterwards, I reckon he'd be faster the first time.

It doesn't work like that. There reaches a point where a horse won't go any faster regardless of how low a weight you give it. We are talking about strong and powerful animals.

I did make the mistake (alright I did it deliberately) of mentioning it in a pub once to Oxford physics graduates (they loved applying their intellect to risque things like speed rating and horses - thought it gave them a bit of edgy credibility on the street I reckon). It's called hysterisis or 'chatter' in an enginerring context.

Basically a horse is a strong animla and can carry weight to a point where it isn't affected to any point of note. Weight reductions and performance improvements do not make for a perfect linear regression if you plotted them. A curve would be concave in its nature. If it were a straight linear regression then horses would run at silly speeds.

They are afterall limited by their cubic capacity, like a combustion engine is. Unfortunately it's a Mordin quote I draw on, but I've never seen a better way of illustrating it.

You've got a car with a 1 litre engine (he used the example of his Nissan Micra - draw your own conclusions) and say it weighs a 2000Ibs laden with passengers etc and has a topspeed of 70mph under these conditions. You then take all your passengers out and strip it bare of anything that adds ballast to it. Hypothetically you strip it down to 500Ibs, effectively reducing the mass by 3 fold through weight reduction. It wouldn't improve on its topspeed and suddenly run at 210 mph.

Apologies if the maths is wrong, (drinking some American wine) but the principle is the same
 
Try this

run a mile carrying 2 bags of shopping

then run it again without them

shall we bet on which is the fastest time?

Invalid argument, EC1.

The ratio of weight carried to the horse's own weight, allied to the manner in which it's carried is entirely different.

A more valid comparison would be to ask me to run a mile. Then ask me to run a mile wearing a bumbag and a bottle of water. There would be a difference, but not much.
 
Cantoris you mentioned my favourite horse of all time(although it was a 1 season wonder) ARAZI coming round the bend in the BC juvenile a beautiful sight

Yeah watched it again the other night. Some run. Pressed the button down the far side and gone!!
 
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