Another fast race?

MrFrisk said:
Has anyone rated the meeting at Newmarket on Saturday 18th May? If so, what do you make of TIGER CLIFF's race? I've got him still very well handicapped even after his 5 lbs hike in the weights. The first 7 in the race look worth following.
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Hope some of you remembered this race.
 
Shot In The Sun, mentioned previously on here, runs in a nursery at Thirsk today. Softer ground an unknown but the change of jockey may help.
 
I'm no time man, but I thought Bow Creek's last run looked smart on the clock for a 2yo. Compared favourably with the next 6 races at the track, in what was a decent card. I'm not sure how the chopping and changing of the rail at Chester effects the times, but runs in the the nursery off 84 at York today and was baffled when it went out to 11/2.

Always the chance of something un-exposed in the field, as last years winner is now rated 103, having won off 78.
 
I'm no time man, but I thought Bow Creek's last run looked smart on the clock for a 2yo.
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Finished last, beaten 20 lths. Fanning reports the ground as awful, whilst Buick calls it beautiful.

Any other stable I would dismiss it but he will no doubt bounce back and win.
 
Anyone interested in doing sectionals this winter? I've just tried to get something going but we should come together and see how to convert sectionals into possible official figures.

I worked on this last night.

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The sectionals are at the 4f and 2f pole then the difference is calculated from finishing time to last 2f sectional calculated. There's a theory out there you should be using the final 3f sectionals, I agree it's a proven method but the 4 > 2 > finish is more adequate in finding finishing speed.

Look at Prince Bishop who reached the 4f pole in 101.4 (that's a mile already completed) and using beyers at time of 101.2 is about what a 60 rated horse would finish, the 101.4 + 25.0 = 126.5 (that's 10f furlongs completed) on Beyers is what a 96 rated horse would have run and his final time of 150.02 over 12f is what a 113 horse will have run.
 
Any thoughts on the last at Haydock on Sat? Quicker than the Old Borough, that race not truly run mind. Fancy first 2 and possibly third as well to win more, especially against older brigade.
 
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
Anyone interested in doing sectionals this winter? I've just tried to get something going but we should come together and see how to convert sectionals into possible official figures.

I worked on this last night.

s4703n.png


The sectionals are at the 4f and 2f pole then the difference is calculated from finishing time to last 2f sectional calculated. There's a theory out there you should be using the final 3f sectionals, I agree it's a proven method but the 4 > 2 > finish is more adequate in finding finishing speed.

Look at Prince Bishop who reached the 4f pole in 101.4 (that's a mile already completed) and using beyers at time of 101.2 is about what a 60 rated horse would finish, the 101.4 + 25.0 = 126.5 (that's 10f furlongs completed) on Beyers is what a 96 rated horse would have run and his final time of 150.02 over 12f is what a 113 horse will have run.
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Where did you get your Beyer figures or how did you calculate them?
 
davidjohnson said:
Any thoughts on the last at Haydock on Sat? Quicker than the Old Borough, that race not truly run mind. Fancy first 2 and possibly third as well to win more, especially against older brigade.
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The Haydock times again were a little odd for me and I wonder if the stalls are always in the right places there.

The winner is useful though and on a line through his French run (beat 2L by a horse who's been beat a head in a G2), he's got plenty of rope left in even his revised handicap mark of 95.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Where did you get your Beyer figures or how did you calculate them?
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Hi Gamla Stan,

I haven't seen anywhere to access Beyer's for British Racecourses so I ended up doing the hard yards in putting together my own whilst incorporating some principles of Cary Fotias which you can find in his "Blinkers Off" publication.
 
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Hey just done the 4th of September at Kempton and I think Gary Moore's Sudden Wish could be worth striking on to again next time out having run to a mark of 68 despite being trapped wide throughout.

The Tatting who also tracked the early pace may go in again if returning back to Wolverhampton where he really does find an extra 5lb.

Hope this is good information.
 
5th September 2013 - Kempton

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I've had to take Tajheez out from the calculations because of the slowly run affair has skewed most of the times. The two races to take out of the meeting would be both Maidens over a mile by Cornrow (87) and Delget Noor (84) although it will be interesting to see how much the handicapper assesses them on their times.

Looking at the horses in behind on the second Maiden you can go back to the 7th horse Pomodoro who was running on debut yet still managed to run to around 67 which would be good enough to land a maiden at a Brighton type course.
 
6th September 2013 - Kempton

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There may be a monster on this card in Cat O' Mountain who I have running to (119) but I'm going come in here with a little bit of intuition and reassess this figure by using a little bit of common sense and taking this with a pinch of salt. It's worth taking a chance on the first few runners from this race just in-case it's actually a hidden gem in the making.

Having said that, Uppercut (95) has also gotten his perfect run having been delivered late of a good clip although the leaders seem to have gotten into each other early here with Ocean Tempest, Border Legend, Mingun Bell, Cruiser and Midnight Feast likely to drop in the weights for their efforts.

The 10th horse Swiftly Done has already come out at won at 8/1 which has done the form a whole lot of good but also the card in general, with regards to Cat O'Mountain.
 
I compared the 5th with my figures, then noticed things don't seem right with yours.

Morally Bankrupt 86.85 (9-03)
Captain Secret 87.21 (8-06)

Both are 2yo's. Morally Bankrupt ran 0.36 seconds quicker than Captain Secret over the same CD and carried more weight, yet you have given Captain Secret a much higher rating. It's almost like you've got them the wrong way around, but I noticed another one in that meeting.

Dominium 72.74 (8-13 +5lb claim)
Marmalady 72.79 (9-08 +3yo)

Even if you've allowed for the claim, not bothered with any WFA allowance, and not bothered with any weight adjustment, it still doesn't make sense. There is only 0.05 of a second between them, yet you have Dominion rated 4 higher.

Also, if you have Sudden Wish on the 4th rated highly, then surely the 2nd and 4th are of more (or at least equally as much) interest.
 
davidjohnson said:
Any thoughts on the last at Haydock on Sat? Quicker than the Old Borough, that race not truly run mind. Fancy first 2 and possibly third as well to win more, especially against older brigade.
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I wouldn't disagree with that but I suspect that the way the earlier race was run makes Pallasator a horse to follow for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, he's not exactly low-profile.

Secretinthepark runs at Donny this afternoon. He's been running over 6f but has two wins over 7f to his credit from last season and it may just be that he needs the longer trip nowadays. I'll give him one more chance today.
 
CPGagie said:
I compared the 5th with my figures, then noticed things don't seem right with yours.

Morally Bankrupt 86.85 (9-03)
Captain Secret 87.21 (8-06)

Both are 2yo's. Morally Bankrupt ran 0.36 seconds quicker than Captain Secret over the same CD and carried more weight, yet you have given Captain Secret a much higher rating. It's almost like you've got them the wrong way around, but I noticed another one in that meeting.

Dominium 72.74 (8-13 +5lb claim)
Marmalady 72.79 (9-08 +3yo)

Even if you've allowed for the claim, not bothered with any WFA allowance, and not bothered with any weight adjustment, it still doesn't make sense. There is only 0.05 of a second between them, yet you have Dominion rated 4 higher.

Also, if you have Sudden Wish on the 4th rated highly, then surely the 2nd and 4th are of more (or at least equally as much) interest.
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I've also factored in the final 3 furlong finishing speed into the the times whilst my Beyer's are aggregated into class variables taking into consideration the proportion of class split at the distance in relation to the lbs per length whilst working on the course average class split as an accumulative class barometer which ascends from Gr.1 level to Maiden company which is then converted in lbs deducted across given trips using the lbs per length scale.

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29th August 2013 - Kempton
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Without a doubt the horse to take from this race is Ocean Legend who has run to a mark of (91) having won off (75) which means you can go right back to the 8th horse Sewn Up who has run above their current mark. The Maiden won by Lightening Spear (80) is worth noting as he was very keen in the early stages yet managed to straighten out before the home turn then find strongly in the final stages of the race - those in behind who weren't running on debut, up to Sellingallthetime would be good for a bet in Nurseries in November, December & January.
 
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First runner from Ocean Legends sectionals is Intomist at 4:35 Epsom and I've played e/w @ 14/1
 
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