Another fast race?

Does anyone bother with speed figured over jumps? STANDING OVATION on Sunday at Wincanton looks to have run a good time.
 
I use the RP's speed figures as a guide, but I'd suspect their 117 for the winner is questionable, at least.
IIRC, there are only about 3 races per season over that c/d, and 4 of the first 5 achieved much their best ever s/f, with the other his highest for 2 years.
Maybe Timeform have a more accurate fix?
 
Buckstay was discussed on this thread many moons ago. He dropped back from middle distances to a mile last time and, arguably, with a better ride he might have won. Atzeni rides him today at Newmarket, again over a mile, and ground conditions should suit.
 
MrFrisk said:
Does anyone bother with speed figures over jumps? STANDING OVATION on Sunday at Wincanton looks to have run a good time.
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there are quite a few decent bets each season using times over the jumps..its good because 99% of people ignore them..which is exactly what you want

this one is like you say difficult as the standard time will be at best dubious

as Wincanton is pretty flat without unusual feature you could just use time per furlongs

21.0f Deciding Moment = 14.80 pf
25.5f Franklyn Roosevelt = 15.30pf
27.5f Standing Ovation = 14.65 pf

without looking further than that its easy to see its a fast time..SO has run faster pf than a similar class event at 6f less

looking further...for SO to be compared roughly with DM..just add 0.12pf to DM's pf figure to find the 27.5f expected time for SO ..which would be 27.5 x 14.92 =410.3.

SO won in 402.8..so is about 7.5 seconds better than DM...which is roughly about 30lbs better at that distance...if DM is now rated say 115...factor in weight carried and you get a rating of 138 for SO and 160 for Highland Lodge.

They look too high....obviously we are relying on guesswork... but its interesting that they beat the 3rd horse by just about that margin...both are progressive

be interesting to see how far these two can go
 
Interesting stuff EC1. I re-rated the race using the track record as the standard time after Reet Hard pointed out the distance isn't raced very often at Wincanton, and came up with STANDING OVATION 118 and HIGHLAND LODGE 145.

They've both been re-assessed by the handicapper since the race and STANDING OVATION is now on 120 and HIGHLAND LODGE on 143. So, if my figures are right, the handicapper has pretty much caught up with them both.
 
EC1 said:
Desert Wings ran an immense figure last night at Kempton..i got a 102 incl wfa

the next 3 home were 8+ lengths behind..but they in turn were 17L in front of the rest.

Tasrih
Takaathur
Zuhd

should be worth following
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Wouldn't go mad over it, horse got away with extreme advantage on surface, second horse looks useless 4yo for McCabe and winner has been stuffed in weak maidens on the turf, no way a 102 horse.

Put it this way, graphic is rated 90 on AW couldn't see it giing him 12lb over a mile.

well Frogman..have you seen the results today?..Tasrih bolted up..will be rated 75 ish minimum would have thought..Desert Wings beat it like a plater..the 100 rating isn't far out imo
 
EC1 said:
no..let the ground put me off...there will be other good opportunities to come
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I had a small bet at 5/1 last night. Interestingly, Nick Mordin put SO up as one of his 3 to follow in this week's Weekender. He rated his last win "Grade 2 class"
 
MrFrisk said:
WINTERLUDE ran a quick time at Lingfield today, I've got him running to 8 lbs ahead of his mark. Depending on what the hadicapper does the horses back to the 5th could be worth a look next time out.
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First test of this rating today in the 6:20 at Kempton, NAUTILUS. It's been heavily backed today.
 
I bet these berks don't mind profiting from the winners the boys provide on here personally will never understand the mentality of people who give folk grief through a computer screen
 
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