Another fast race?

"Morning Post is top on my figures in the nursery on the strength of his debut third to Reroute..."

I posted that on the first day of the Ebor Meeting. In the event, the horse didn't run that day but I backed him again last Saturday in a Haydock nursery off a mark of 82 with Ryan Moore up. Last of six, beaten about ten lengths. I gave up on him at that point.

I'd also given up on Reroute. Fortunately, she's a non-runner at Donny today which at least spares me the agony of deciding whether to back her.
 
FrogTheBountyMuncher said:
Having said that, Uppercut (95) has also gotten his perfect run having been delivered late of a good clip although the leaders seem to have gotten into each other early here with Ocean Tempest, Border Legend, Mingun Bell, Cruiser and Midnight Feast likely to drop in the weights for their efforts.
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doomster said:
Finished last, beaten 20 lths. Fanning reports the ground as awful, whilst Buick calls it beautiful.

Any other stable I would dismiss it but he will no doubt bounce back and win.
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Hope you stuck to your guns with Bow Creek, Doomster.

To be honest, this in-and-out running where Johnston's horses are concerned is very hard to take and makes "following" his horses virtually impossible. Did the Newbury stewards ask any questions yesterday?
 
Bow Creek's time yesterday was very good - full value for his winning margin, on my figures, and no suggestion he "stole" it.
 
Hope you stuck to your guns with Bow Creek, Doomster.
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I was out all day but backed it at 5.5 with a stake lay back at 2.24. master Carpenter was also on my Nag Me service so also had a place only bet on it. I haven't seen the race but a friend sent me the result and added it hit 10 in running for £400, which is slightly baffling for the front runner.

On reflection, I think he had a tough task at York trying to get the lead from the widest draw, with the bend coming so quickly.

Another of his defeats came over the same C&D when drawn 13 of 13. Red Galileo may be worth watching as he was also drawn out wide to finish 2nd.

The other issue with the Johnson runners are interval times. I personally think he over races his mid/low grade horses, but the stats contradict my view with a strike rate of 20% for his horses off a 1-7 day break, which outperforms any other interval period.
 
"The other issue with the Johnson runners are interval times. I personally think he over races his mid/low grade horses, but the stats contradict my view with a strike rate of 20% for his horses off a 1-7 day break, which outperforms any other interval period."

Doomster, what happens to his percentage SR if you restrict that to colts and geldings only?
 
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Doomster, what happens to his percentage SR if you restrict that to colts and geldings only?
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I will have a go at that one Chris.

My thought was to filter out the winners within the 7 day interval, but I'm clueless what effect that will have on the SR.
 
All horses 1-7 day interval; 222/1143= 19.42% (1-6 is 20% but keep it 1-7).

Male 1-7: 157/876 = 17.92% -£207.71

Female 1-7: 65/267= 24.34% +£89.00

Female 1-7 aged 2yo: 7/33= 21.21% +£13.11

Female 1-7 aged 3yo: 42/169= 24.85% +£27.45

Female 1-7 aged 4-5: 15/58= 25.86% +£53.06
 
My thought was to filter out the winners within the 7 day interval, but I'm clueless what effect that will have on the SR.
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The s/r is the same for the females with or without a win on previous run. However, the profit figure improves for the non winners.

Winners: 15/63= 23.81 % +£27.30

Non winners: 50/204= 24.51% +£61.70.
 
Desert Wings ran an immense figure last night at Kempton..i got a 102 incl wfa

the next 3 home were 8+ lengths behind..but they in turn were 17L in front of the rest.

Tasrih
Takaathur
Zuhd

should be worth following
 
Wouldn't go mad over it, horse got away with extreme advantage on surface, second horse looks useless 4yo for McCabe and winner has been stuffed in weak maidens on the turf, no way a 102 horse.

Put it this way, graphic is rated 90 on AW couldn't see it giing him 12lb over a mile.
 
Hate Kempton. Gone back to old standards, EC. Make more sense to me, **** 1M3F+. Will rate later.
 
Just looked at the results in the RP. Would be tough to say those old 7F & 1M ones look too hard to get now. There was a method in my madness, illogical, but a method.

I don't think anyone knows what the hell is going on there. At least with those old ones, I knew I wouldn't be following slow horses. ;)
 
All horses 1-7 day interval; 222/1143= 19.42% (1-6 is 20% but keep it 1-7).
Male 1-7: 157/876 = 17.92% -£207.71
Female 1-7: 65/267= 24.34% +£89.00
Female 1-7 aged 2yo: 7/33= 21.21% +£13.11
Female 1-7 aged 3yo: 42/169= 24.85% +£27.45
Female 1-7 aged 4-5: 15/58= 25.86% +£53.06
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I felt a little sick when I saw this filly powering down the outside. I knew it was a qualifier but chose to ignore it.
2 3 ¾ Mambo Rhythm 40/1 2 9-0 Mark Johnston — * *
Adrian Nicholls

Dwelt and held up in rear, switched wide and headway well over 2f out, ridden well over 1f out, stayed on strongly final furlong (op 50/1)
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They only other horse to run was Princess Tamay, who has run twice within 7 days sellers/claimers, failing on both occasions.
 
WINTERLUDE ran a quick time at Lingfield today, I've got him running to 8 lbs ahead of his mark. Depending on what the hadicapper does the horses back to the 5th could be worth a look next time out.
 
He might need time between his races. I was very impressed with him at Doncaster so backed him at York where he ran so disappointingly. Yesterday's result shows he's still on a curve.
 
gus said:
Hope you stuck to your guns with Bow Creek, Doomster.

To be honest, this in-and-out running where Johnston's horses are concerned is very hard to take and makes "following" his horses virtually impossible. Did the Newbury stewards ask any questions yesterday?
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Bow Creek ran a stinker at Ponte today after going off a short-priced favourite. The ground was bad, admittedly.
 
Bow Creek ran a stinker at Ponte today after going off a short-priced favourite. The ground was bad, admittedly.
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I fancied him again today but couldn't back him at the price/ground, although I did put him into a combo.

I think plenty of horses over the last 3 days can be forgiven their bad runs with the ground being so bad.
 
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