Ante-Post - Flat 2016

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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I know there isn't the same scope for ante-post punting on the flat but there is a place for it and rather than having our bets jumbled over loads of different threads I though we could just list them here for easy reference.

I've had a couple over the last few days:

Vazirabad 12/1 Coronation Cup.

I've read positive reports that this horse is coming over and it's interesting that his price has not shifted since Jack Hobbs ran so poorly at the weekend. I think Postponed is overrated.

The Grey Gatsby 50/1 Arc

I thought this horse's runs at Ascot and Sandown last season were top drawer. He had a bad ride in the POW and really put it up to Golden Horn in the Eclipse - but the WFA really told at the death. Fahy has said he steps up in trip this season and I like that he didn't go to Dubai this season. Obviously he might not actually run but surely it's the logical race to go for if he proves high class over 12f.
 
Good idea.

Ryan (not Fahey!) says in today's stable tour in the Post that TGG will start off at the Curragh unless it's too soft in which case he'll go straight to Ascot, either POW or Hardwicke and he "won't have any problem with 1m4f. He'll be busy after Ascot and it would be really nice to get him to the Arc...but the problem will be getting the ground for him in October." The race is at Chantilly this year and the horse won the French Derby there, of course.


The best value I can see in any ante-post market at present is Time Test in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot for which he's 12/1 with Bet365. As with The Grey Gatsby, it's to some extent a punt on the weather as he needs fast ground but there's a fair chance he'll get it and this race is his target. He was tremendously impressive over C&D at the Royal Meeting last year.
 
This new thread has made me have a fresh look at a few markets and I've had a bet of my own on the Arc on Found at Hill's price of 16/1.

She won well today and I think she's even better at 12f. She finished full of running in last year's race after an unlucky passage and O'Brien's post-race quotes today suggest it's her main target and she's to be given a classic Arc preparation by having a mid-season break. Small stake only but the price is a stand-out and it's likely to be trimmed in the next few days to bring it into line with the other firms.
 
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Zelzal at 50/1 to win the Arc, obviously after he takes in the Jockey Club. But I do like Found for the Tattersalls Gold Cup-Prince Of Wales double.
 
SeaBirdII said:
Zelzal at 50/1 to win the Arc, obviously after he takes in the Jockey Club. But I do like Found for the Tattersalls Gold Cup-Prince Of Wales double.
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Based on post-race quotes, O'Brien doesn't seem to have the POW in mind for Found. That can change, of course, but she'd be a very risky bet at this stage.

Zelzal appears to be heading for the French Guineas a week on Sunday. Quoted at 4/1 second fav by both Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook. He's also that price with Bet365 but he's clear favourite with them.
 
There's an ante-post market on Saturday's Victoria Cup at Ascot and I've had a bit on Grand Inquisitor at 14/1 with Bet365.

Trained by Stoute, unraced at two, showed plenty of ability in six runs last year, winning twice. Grand Inquisitor was a big eyecatcher under Ryan Moore first time out this year when sixth of fifteen in a handicap at the Craven Meeting. He travelled nicely well off the pace, met a bit of trouble in running and was far from knocked about thereafter. He struck me as the sort of horse who would win one of these valuable big field handicaps sooner or later. Unfortunately, Moore will be riding for O'Brien at Lingfield on Saturday so Ted Durcan is jocked up at this stage which tempers enthusiasm slightly but there you go.

Dangers abound, of course. It's a 29-runner handicap so it's impossible to be confident but all in all I think the price is very fair.
 
Grand Inquisitor ran well but it was surprising to see him one of the first to be pushed along. He actually stuck on pretty strongly and he will be of considerable interest if stepped up to a mile for the Hunt Cup. That looks a likely scenario.
 
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The Tatts Gold Cup deserves a look. This race will cut up bigtime and I've taken 4s about Fascinating Rock and 5s about The Grey Gatsby. The latter is a stonking each way bet.
 
I've been looking left field for some value in the Oaks.
Saturdays handicap winner, Cajoled, trained by George Scott, owned by the Niarchos family...I'm hoping they might stick her in one of the upcoming Oaks trials (Goodwood?). She's a High Chaparral filly, unbeaten in two starts, who could be anything, lets see where they go next. Hopefully not the class 5 handicap at Newmarket this week...
 
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Marble said:
Saturdays handicap winner, Cajoled, trained by George Scott, owned by the Niarchos family...I'm hoping they might stick her in one of the upcoming Oaks trials (Goodwood?). ...
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Nice to see her entered up.
 
Euronymous said:
The Tatts Gold Cup deserves a look. This race will cut up bigtime and I've taken 4s about Fascinating Rock and 5s about The Grey Gatsby. The latter is a stonking each way bet.
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Time Test is a possible runner, according to the Sporting Life site.
 
Marble said:
I've been looking left field for some value in the Oaks.
Saturdays handicap winner, Cajoled, trained by George Scott, owned by the Niarchos family...I'm hoping they might stick her in one of the upcoming Oaks trials (Goodwood?). She's a High Chaparral filly, unbeaten in two starts, who could be anything, lets see where they go next. Hopefully not the class 5 handicap at Newmarket this week...
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See how she gets on now at Goodwood. I'm not overly optimistic as she's a drifter in the betting and I'm worried horses like Dessertoflife are race ready.
 
Marble said:
See how she gets on now at Goodwood. I'm not overly optimistic as she's a drifter in the betting and I'm worried horses like Dessertoflife are race ready.
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Clearly didn't give her running but I'd imagine they'll be lowering their sights a bit after yesterday.

The winner, Skiffle, impressed me with her attitude and the first two came well clear. She's quoted at 12s for the Ribblesdale and post-race comments suggest that's the target. I think there's a bit of mileage in that price. She won't run between now and then and can only shorten, barring a setback (which all ante-post punters risk).

I'm inclined to agree with Gigilo about Yalta's Coventry price. Yesterday's field was small which tends to put people off but Yalta won in really good style and the favourite's form had substance to it. The time compares really well with the 70-rated winner of the 6f handicap later on the card. About 36lbs better, in fact, after adjustment for weights carried and wfa. Can't see the 16/1 lasting too long.
 
Kevin Ryan has confirmed after pulling the horse out of the Tatts that The Grey Gatsby will be aimed at the POW. He was the best horse in the race last season and 12/1 is really good value. You have the likes of Postponed, Cannock Chase and Intilaak all shorter than him in the market and I think he's the bet of the year so far.
 
12/1 is a knocking E/W bet I agree but I'd be more than confident of Found improving a good stone on quick ground.
 
I've taken 5s about her also. Lots of angles in the race, the horses I mentioned above I cannot see winning for one reason or another - class/distance in the main, and of course her conqueror today probably wont run if the rain stays away. And so there is some value in the race. Agree that Found is much better on a sound surface and like TGG has proven form on fast mid summer Ascot ground.

With Minding's issue today and Ballydoyle a non stayer in my book the Oaks has a nice look to it now and I've taken 10s about Turret Rocks. I like Jim's other filly Siamsaiocht as well but can see her more likely to go for the Ribblesdale.
 
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I'm not at all sure that Found will go to Royal Ascot. The trainer had previously suggested she'd have a mid-season break and miss it. Chris Cook in today's Guardian says that after her defeat yesterday, O'Brien "begged for time to consider plans."
 
A mid season break would come after Royal Ascot. The races she'd take in - Nassau, Eclipse can be missed as they'll have Minding for those. They have nothing else for he POW and aren't the sort of outfit that give their fillies breaks.
 
Euronymous said:
A mid season break would come after Royal Ascot. The races she'd take in - Nassau, Eclipse can be missed as they'll have Minding for those. They have nothing else for he POW and aren't the sort of outfit that give their fillies breaks.
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This was O'Brien after her Mooresbridge win:

"You'd have to be very happy. The plan was that she would go next to the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh and possibly the Coronation, but basically she's to get a break with a view to later in the season."We'd be thinking two runs after the break before the Arc, and maybe the Breeders' Cup after that."
 
SlimChance said:
Caravaggio for the Norfolk could be an 11/10 shot,
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Possibly -but given that APOB blatantly hyped him on Saturday-"we've never had a faster 2yo"-you would think there is a game plan -win as much as possible as a 2yo.The Phoenix is an obvious summer target but in terms of prestige at Royal Ascot the Coventry is in a different league to the Norfolk or Windsor Castle.
 
Silver Line at Notts yesterday looked an absolute weapon,was highlighted by Giggs on here and Willoughby on RUK today,He definetly looks Norfolk bound.
 
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