Ante-Post - Flat 2016

Brilliant weather across the country today but the 10-day forecast suggests there might be quite a bit of rain in and around Ascot over the weekend and in the early part of next week which makes me nervous about my Time Test POW bet and I've taken the precaution of laying some off on Betfair. I have a very high regard for Roger Charlton and have no doubt that he would scratch the horse rather than run him on soft again.

In the light of the forecast I've had a bit on Belardo at 8s for the Queen Anne and on Meccas Angel at 10s in the Kings Stand plus an each-way double on the pair. If it stays fast I've done my money but those prices will look huge if the rain arrives.

And, before anyone comments, I appreciate it undermines my earlier remarks about Meccas as an ante-post proposition. It's small stakes insurance, really.
 
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Norfolk Stakes

We know that Caravaggio won't run given the market moves this week. If you take him out of the betting than the market is betting to 106.21% and not all of those will run. Given this is likely to be on of the smaller fields of the week I make this market over broke. I can't see how Silver Line can possibly go off 7/1 in this race. None of the four horses he trounced in Nottingham have run since so he appears to be forgotten and completely underrated. I make him around a 3/1 shot for this race. The 7/1 put there is a big overlay. At the very least taking this price will give you leverage on the day.
 
Nice angle.

I've had a go in the without Order of St George market Powers are running for the Gold Cup. They make his stable companion Bondi Beach an 11/4 poke and I can't have him staying. Amongst the scruffs and handicappers in double figures we have Manatee who is by Monsun out of a Galileo mare so looks bred for the job, has decent form behind Vazirabad (apparently delighted connections in the Vicomtesse Vigour when running the Aga Khan's colt to a couple of lengths) The GC is the target by all accounts and 16/1 without the jolly looks a play.

I've also backed Exosphere for the Hardwicke at 4s. Like Slim's bet above this is a race that will cut up and the main oppo to the selection looks like being his stable companion Dartmouth who doesn't look in the same league. I can see him being a Telescope like 7/4 shot on the day.
 
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gus said:
In the light of the forecast I've had a bit on Belardo at 8s for the Queen Anne and on Meccas Angel at 10s in the Kings Stand plus an each-way double on the pair. If it stays fast I've done my money but those prices will look huge if the rain arrives.
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Forecast looks really bad so I've followed you in on MA. I'm involved on Ervedya in the Queen Anne and softer ground doesn't bother me too much, can't have belardo whatever the ground.

The POW becomes a nightmare on soft ground.
 
If Quiet Reflection is a true 11/4 shot for the Commonwealth Cup on Friday - I think she just about is - she surely can't be as long as 16s for the July Cup. If she wins this week it would be her obvious next target. She's almost certainly no Muharaar but this year's older sprinters may well lack an out and out star and so she might not need to be. She certainly won't be unsuited by this week's surface but she's not ground-dependent and, all in all, I reckon that 16/1 is more than fair and I've taken it.
 
gus said:
I'll get my money back if he's declared but misses the cut, of course, but I'm not sure Stoutey is to be trusted on this sort of thing. Quite capable of saying he won't get in so don't bother declaring him.
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SMS in fact did the decent thing and declared Grand Inquisitor but he's missed the cut by two.

Is there a reserve system in place for this race?
 
gus said:
In the light of the forecast I've had a bit on Belardo at 8s for the Queen Anne and on Meccas Angel at 10s in the Kings Stand plus an each-way double on the pair. If it stays fast I've done my money but those prices will look huge if the rain arrives.
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The rain did arrive and the prices did look huge...
 
sunybay said:
I have been following horse racing for 30 years, rating races.
I have seen some very good performances by top class horses


The only horses I have seen posting back to back 135+ performances are
Deep Impact, twice in Japan
Generous, 3 in a row
Dubai Milenium, one in dirt and at Royal Ascot, given a good break
Frankel, bounced after the Guineas but later in his career able to put 6 runnings in a row, that’s why I think he is the best horse I have seen.
Black Caviar, just twice and easier to do in sprints
Cirrus Des Aigles, just twice in France


Goldikova, after the Jacques Le Marois not as good again.
Overdose, was not the same after that amazing performance in Italy
Royal Anthem, flopping in Ireland after York
Daylami, flopping in the Arc after Ireland
Just Away, not the same after Dubai
Sea The Moon, injured afterwards
Queens Logic, injured afterwards, mid125s as a 2yo
Celtic Swing, not the same after the RPT
Zafonic, bleeding in the Sussex after the guineas
Hawk Wing after the Lockinge.
Sakhee after the Arc beaten in the BC
Harbinger , injured after the King George
Xaar not the same after the Dewhurst
Dream Ahead bouncing after the Middle Park


I think A Shin Hikari today run to something like 138, but was not ridden as a horse thinking in Royal Ascot, I am likely not to have a bet in the Prince Of wales but my feeling is that he is a horse likely to bounce after the last 2 hard races he has had.
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Perfectly analysed
 
Ellery Lane backed to win the maiden at Limerick this evening, from 12/1 last night into SP 6/4 and duly obliged.
This could be a 1000 Guineas horse next season. A Moyglare entry in the not-to-distant future; someone clearly thinks a lot of her.
 
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I've had a few quid on Arthenus at 25/1 in the John Smith's Cup market.

Ran really well at Ascot yesterday after being set a lot to do. There's no doubt now about him getting the trip and he can be ridden more prominently next time. He has winning York form on his CV and is trained by Fanshawe who is just the man to eke out some further improvement as the season goes on. Primitivo is favourite with most firms but might not get in, even with his penalty.

Main concern would be the ground. Arthenus probably wouldn't be suited by fast going and might not even run if it's any firmer than good but that's in the price, for me.
 
I am balls deep in the Eclipse. I've topped up on Time Test with the news that The Gurkha who I did kind of fear is heading to Goodwood and Ballydoyle are relying on Deauville. Also have TGG at double figures and just in case the rain doesn't relent taken some 10s about Fascinating Rock (how come he missed the POW??)
 
ROGER CHARLTON is hoping the weather finally gives his stable star Time Test the chance to prove his Group 1 quality in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown on July 2.
The soggy summer has thwarted the Beckhampton trainer's plans to give the four-year-old the same campaign as his 2013 Eclipse winner Al Kazeem this year with soft ground ruling him out of last Wednesday's Prince of Wales's Stakes after a similarly scuppered trip to Ireland for the Tattersalls Gold Cup last month.
"He would run on good ground but I know if it was good to firm or firm he would be at his best," said Charlton after watching Time Test breeze solo under Steve Raymont on the Beckhampton all-weather gallop.
In using heart monitors and speed checks on the gallops Charlton feels Time Test is "spot on" for the race and matches up to Al Kazeem in all respects although they are different types.
The irony that the bigger Al Kazeem would have enjoyed the soft ground while having to overcome firmer ground in his Group 1 hat-trick climaxing in the Eclipse three years ago was not lost on Charlton.
Who takes the ride?
The other uncertainty is who will ride Time Test, with his Brigadier Gerard Stakes partner Ryan Moore likely to be claimed by Aidan O'Brien, who has earmarked the race for Dante runner-up Deauville from his 13 entries.
"I understand if Aidan runs something Ryan is likely to ride although Ryan would like to ride Time Test again," Charlton said. "In that event Pat Smullen would likely ride as he has an agreement with the owner but nothing has to be decided until next week."
Charlton added: "I thought he produced arguably a career-best performance in the Brigadier Gerard and didn't get the clearest passage when needed. He looked very resilient up the hill and was always going to win."
If the weather intervenes again Charlton has already mapped out an alternative programme, adding: "He is in all the big races - the Sussex, the King George, the Arc and obviously the Juddmonte International.
"He is a high-class mile and a quarter horse and the Eclipse would suit him but he has the speed to drop back to a mile for the Sussex.
"He could go further but I would prefer to stick at ten furlongs in the International - the race didn't work out for him last year."
Charlton said he would relish the chance to pit Time Test against Britain's horse of the year Postponed in that York feature.
 
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sunybay said:
I have been following horse racing for 30 years, rating races.
I have seen some very good performances by top class horses


The only horses I have seen posting back to back 135+ performances are
Deep Impact, twice in Japan
Generous, 3 in a row
Dubai Milenium, one in dirt and at Royal Ascot, given a good break
Frankel, bounced after the Guineas but later in his career able to put 6 runnings in a row, that’s why I think he is the best horse I have seen.
Black Caviar, just twice and easier to do in sprints
Cirrus Des Aigles, just twice in France


Goldikova, after the Jacques Le Marois not as good again.
Overdose, was not the same after that amazing performance in Italy
Royal Anthem, flopping in Ireland after York
Daylami, flopping in the Arc after Ireland
Just Away, not the same after Dubai
Sea The Moon, injured afterwards
Queens Logic, injured afterwards, mid125s as a 2yo
Celtic Swing, not the same after the RPT
Zafonic, bleeding in the Sussex after the guineas
Hawk Wing after the Lockinge.
Sakhee after the Arc beaten in the BC
Harbinger , injured after the King George
Xaar not the same after the Dewhurst
Dream Ahead bouncing after the Middle Park


I think A Shin Hikari today run to something like 138, but was not ridden as a horse thinking in Royal Ascot, I am likely not to have a bet in the Prince Of wales but my feeling is that he is a horse likely to bounce after the last 2 hard races he has had.
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Royal Anthem didn't flop - he was taken on and harassed for the lead by a horse that traditionally ran just behind the leaders. Purely coincidentally, that horse was in the same ownership as the eventual winner. We were robbed of a proper horse race that day.
 
gus said:
I've had a few quid on Arthenus at 25/1 in the John Smith's Cup market.

He has winning York form on his CV
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That winning form at York was a head beating of Hunt Cup runner-up Librisa Breeze last Autumn. Dean Ivory has nominated the Bunbury Cup as that horse's next probable race and I think 10/1 is good value. He was drawn the wrong side at Ascot and did very well to finish where he did. Honestly if he had form over 7f this would be a really strong bet for me as that's my only concern. That said this rain isn't supposed to let up anytime soon and with the July Course riding heavy at present unless we have a heatwave leading up to the race there will be some dig in the ground, making it more of a stamina test.
 
I ended up hedging my entire stake on Time Test at Ascot and I've done the same with my bet on him for the Eclipse. The current state of the ground coupled with the weather forecast for the next few days make him a very unlikely runner. Roger Charlton must be tearing his hair out.

On the subject of Charlton, Fair Eva is due to run at Newbury this week and the form of her Haydock debut couldn't have worked out much better with the well-beaten second and third both winning well since. I've backed her for next year's One Thousand Guineas at 20s and 16s.
 
I've hedged half my position as well. Such a shame.

I wonder what they'll do if he is pulled out. I wouldn't fancy him at York against one of USAR or Idaho and maybe Postponed also.

TGG I'm slightly more optimistic about. If he's pulled out as well I can see him going to Ascot for the King George, taken 20s.
 
"TIME TEST looks set to take his place in Saturday's Group 1 Coral-Eclipse at Sandown after trainer Roger Charlton on Monday supplemented a pacemaker for the four-year-old.
The son of Dubawi was one of 11 runners remaining in contention for Saturday's Group 1 Coral-Eclipse at Sandown following the five-day confirmation stage on Monday.
Countermeasure has been added to the race by Charlton, who says he is eager to allow Time Test to take his place in the race, despite the likely rain-softened ground.
"I am keen to run if we can," said Charlton. "If it is good to soft so be it. We have put a pacemaker in as well.
"There is nothing else for him to run in so the chances are he will turn up."



I'd be surprised if it's good to soft, judging by the weather forecast. Soft or worse looks more likely.

I don't think he'll run, to be honest.
 
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Librisa Breeze hasn't got in the Bunbury. Runs in the consolation race instead. Stakes refunded.

Arthenus is declared for the John Smith's Cup but Fanshawe is expressing concerns over the fastish ground. There's rain around and more forecast so I remain hopeful.
 
I've had a couple of ante-post bets overnight: Dancing Star for the Stewards' Cup at 14/1 and Easy Victory for next year's One Thousand Guineas at 33/1.

Dancing Star will definitely go for the race, according to her owner. She is clearly improving fast and suited by big-field handicaps. She won yesterday off 96 and will carry a 6-lb penalty at Goodwood. These are exactly the same figures off which Magical Memory did the double last year. Her win yesterday wasn't as decisive as his in the same race twelve months ago but she might well end up considerably better than a mark of 102.

Backing a Godolphin horse ante-post for a classic has been a route to the poor house in recent years so I do so with some trepidation but there was nothing to dislike about Easy Victory's stylish win yesterday and there are some signs that the increased role given to Ferguson within the operation might be having a positive effect. I expected to see quotes in the usual 16s/20s bracket which would have been easily resistible but 33/1 just looks on the big side to me, even with the reservations. She's superbly bred, of course, and apparently goes for the Lowther now.
 
gus said:
Arthenus is declared for the John Smith's Cup but Fanshawe is expressing concerns over the fastish ground. There's rain around and more forecast so I remain hopeful.
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I'm about 40 miles away but it's certainly belting it down here at the moment.
 
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