I certainly wouldn't rule Librisa Breeze out but I prefer Brando to him on value grounds. The same arguments (about what winning a handicap off an elevated mark actually represents) apply equally to him but he's twice the price of Librisa Breeze on Betfair this morning. Neither would beat Limato if he takes his chance and is at the top of his game.
Ante-Post - Flat 2016
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
EC1
On a break
that last win by LB..with the turn of foot exhibited.. has persuaded connections that he has speed for 6f and so are throwing the dice..can't blame them really with the money on offer for places. I'm struggling to see him win it ...but he doesn't need to to come away with a big pay day
Sprint
1st £340,260.00 2nd £129,000.00 3rd £64,560.00 4th £32,160.00 5th £16,140.00 6th £8,100.00
Balmoral
1st £155,625.00 2nd £46,600.00 3rd £23,300.00 4th £11,650.00 5th £5,825.00 6th £2,925.00
If they go hard in the sprint its going to suit LB who could easily pick up very good money just for placing.
The mile handicap..to me isn't an easier option because of the weight burden and potential traffic problem ..LB is rated 113..what level would he need to run to to actually win against goodness knows how many horses who have something in hand of their mark?...surely if people think LB can win the balmoral off 113 then its perfectly feasible he could place in the sprint as they must believe LB is north of 115.
Its not like Dean Ivory doesn't know what it takes to run a lesser one than LB in the sprint that needed further than 6f... and get a good result. If you look at Sirius Prospect..you will see a horse that was similar to LB in that his best work was always at the end of 6f races and he eventually went on to win at a mile .... and when he ran 3rd in the sprint in 2012..was only rated in low 100's. So to me it looks a good move by Ivory..in theory anyway using Sirius Prospect as a template..especially as LB is a 10lb better horse than that one
Sprint
1st £340,260.00 2nd £129,000.00 3rd £64,560.00 4th £32,160.00 5th £16,140.00 6th £8,100.00
Balmoral
1st £155,625.00 2nd £46,600.00 3rd £23,300.00 4th £11,650.00 5th £5,825.00 6th £2,925.00
If they go hard in the sprint its going to suit LB who could easily pick up very good money just for placing.
The mile handicap..to me isn't an easier option because of the weight burden and potential traffic problem ..LB is rated 113..what level would he need to run to to actually win against goodness knows how many horses who have something in hand of their mark?...surely if people think LB can win the balmoral off 113 then its perfectly feasible he could place in the sprint as they must believe LB is north of 115.
Its not like Dean Ivory doesn't know what it takes to run a lesser one than LB in the sprint that needed further than 6f... and get a good result. If you look at Sirius Prospect..you will see a horse that was similar to LB in that his best work was always at the end of 6f races and he eventually went on to win at a mile .... and when he ran 3rd in the sprint in 2012..was only rated in low 100's. So to me it looks a good move by Ivory..in theory anyway using Sirius Prospect as a template..especially as LB is a 10lb better horse than that one
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Strictly speaking, this should involve a new thread headed "Ante-Post - Flat 2017, but Waldgeist, winner of the Criterium de Saint-Cloud yesterday, must rate a bet for next year's Derby at the 25/1 on offer with Paddy Power if only as a hedging opportunity.
You wouldn't know it from the Racing Post coverage, because Fabre refuses to talk to the paper, but Waldgeist is definitely to be aimed at Epsom according to the Sporting Life website and a Fabre-trained Group One winner with an excellent pedigree who is one hundred percent certain to stay the trip will not go off at anything like this price if all goes well with him in the meantime.
You wouldn't know it from the Racing Post coverage, because Fabre refuses to talk to the paper, but Waldgeist is definitely to be aimed at Epsom according to the Sporting Life website and a Fabre-trained Group One winner with an excellent pedigree who is one hundred percent certain to stay the trip will not go off at anything like this price if all goes well with him in the meantime.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Since when has Fabre been giving the RP the fisheye? I thought it was just the Frenchie media he didn't talk to.
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I've definitely read it or heard it somewhere in the recent past.