Ante-Post - Flat 2016

fonz said:
Silver Line at Notts yesterday looked an absolute weapon,was highlighted by Giggs on here and Willoughby on RUK today,He definetly looks Norfolk bound.
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I got him added to the PP and Bet365 lists. Bookmakers seemed to have completely missed it.
 
Any POW ante post vouchers no doubt less enticing now after that performance from A Shin Hikari in the D'ispahan.
 
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Why? Never trust a non European shorty at Ascot. Plus, with New Bay nowhere near his best the horse has beaten frig all.
 
It was a stunning performance
the problem for royal Ascot is he can bounce,
if he doesnt , he wins the prince of wales easily.

I would love to know the sectiional figure of this for the Hong kong race
on todays form he is a high 130s horse
 
I'll grant you the first part but did you not see the race Euro ?. He hasn't just beaten them he's annihilated them. Dariyan is a solid G1/G2 performer who was race fit and yet he's been beaten out of sight into 2nd.
 
I appreciate all that and although I haven't seen the full race I saw the last furlong or so, which is the gist of it given the location. It was spine tingling, mainly because the thing has such decent form on firm as well so we haven't got a Turtle Island type situation being fav for the SJP on the basis of a wide margin win on heavy in the Irish2000. No matter, I'd take him on at Ascot. Short straight, 60/40 at least you'll get a **** ride out of the jockey.
 
No denying there'll be those grounds to justify taking him on and I daresay numerous better horses than him have been beaten at this meeting but at this stage I'd rather be with him at the 5/2 - if it had a NRNB proviso - than against him but a lot can happen between now and then.
 
Pretty impressive stuff - I was taken with him anyway. Not sure the stiffer finish or quicker ground will be any issue for him at Ascot and to be honest, i'm surprised 11/4 was on offer. He might bounce but if he turns up in that form the 11/4 would look silly. Boyles still 5/2 on RP site but generally 9/4, 2/1 feels about right. Found and fascinating rock will be tough opposition plus plenty of others.
 
Ground will likely be too fast for Fascinating Rock.


Time Test runs in the Brigadier Gerard on Thursday.

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sunybay said:
It was a stunning performance
the problem for royal Ascot is he can bounce,
if he doesnt , he wins the prince of wales easily.

I would love to know the sectiional figure of this for the Hong kong race
on todays form he is a high 130s horse
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Sectionals for the Hong Kong Cup were: 26.17 23.47 23.75 23.59 23.62. Those are some fractions.

I agree if he doesn't bounce he will rip the competiton to shreds. By far the best performance of any horse this year, or last year for that matter.
 
I have been following horse racing for 30 years, rating races.
I have seen some very good performances by top class horses


The only horses I have seen posting back to back 135+ performances are
Deep Impact, twice in Japan
Generous, 3 in a row
Dubai Milenium, one in dirt and at Royal Ascot, given a good break
Frankel, bounced after the Guineas but later in his career able to put 6 runnings in a row, that’s why I think he is the best horse I have seen.
Black Caviar, just twice and easier to do in sprints
Cirrus Des Aigles, just twice in France


Goldikova, after the Jacques Le Marois not as good again.
Overdose, was not the same after that amazing performance in Italy
Royal Anthem, flopping in Ireland after York
Daylami, flopping in the Arc after Ireland
Just Away, not the same after Dubai
Sea The Moon, injured afterwards
Queens Logic, injured afterwards, mid125s as a 2yo
Celtic Swing, not the same after the RPT
Zafonic, bleeding in the Sussex after the guineas
Hawk Wing after the Lockinge.
Sakhee after the Arc beaten in the BC
Harbinger , injured after the King George
Xaar not the same after the Dewhurst
Dream Ahead bouncing after the Middle Park


I think A Shin Hikari today run to something like 138, but was not ridden as a horse thinking in Royal Ascot, I am likely not to have a bet in the Prince Of wales but my feeling is that he is a horse likely to bounce after the last 2 hard races he has had.
 
Talking about bouncing the Sandy Lane on Saturday brings together Gifted Master and Log Out Island (best renewal ever?) and the latter looks interesting at 6s although he won't be allowed as much rope now and GM looks high class. I might have to go to this meeting.
 
gus said:
The winner, Skiffle, impressed me with her attitude and the first two came well clear. She's quoted at 12s for the Ribblesdale and post-race comments suggest that's the target. I think there's a bit of mileage in that price. She won't run between now and then and can only shorten, barring a setback (which all ante-post punters risk).
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Well, there's been a "setback" - she is now a possible for the Oaks and if she ran in that she'd almost certainly swerve Ascot.

Skiffle can be backed NRNB for the Oaks at 10/1 and that looks a risk-free hedging opportunity at least. The Oaks is clearly only under consideration due to the doubts over Minding. If Minding runs, Skiffle probably doesn't. If Minding doesn't run, the second fav, Ballydoyle, is no certainty to replace her, judging from comments by Kevin Buckley at Epsom yesterday, nor is Seventh Heaven nor is Somehow. O'Brien's "best" Oaks candidate could end up being Even Song.

In those circumstances, Skiffle wouldn't be far off favourite.
 
gus said:
The best value I can see in any ante-post market at present is Time Test in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot for which he's 12/1 with Bet365. As with The Grey Gatsby, it's to some extent a punt on the weather as he needs fast ground but there's a fair chance he'll get it and this race is his target. He was tremendously impressive over C&D at the Royal Meeting last year.
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I backed Time Test at 10/1 for the Eclipse last night after his Brigadier Gerard win. He's generally 6s for the Prince of Wales's Stakes and the difference in the two prices is hard to understand given that A Shin Hikari will be at Ascot but not at Sandown. Obviously, there may be three-year-olds in opposition in the Eclipse but at the moment it's hard to imagine one going there with better form in the book than that shown by the Japanese horse. I've confidence in Time Test over 10f on fast ground, whatever the opposition, but there's no doubt A Shin Hikari is a credible rival at least.
 
That's a decent shout. I can't fathom why Postponed is turning up in single figures for these 10f events. He simply hasn't the speed for these type races.
 
Looks like Found may well go to Epsom on Saturday for the Coronation Cup, according to the Post site.

6/1 still available.
 
Makes sense to go for that race with Vazirabad out.

I've added Predominance in the Hunt Cup at 25s. His last two runs make the price, he was never put into the Victoria Cup and Chester was never going to be his track. Will be off a night racing weight at Ascot.
 
For reasons given earlier on this thread, I'm with Grand Inquisitor in the Hunt Cup. He was kindly dropped a pound by the handicapper after his Victoria Cup run. 33/1 was available when the weights came out but he's down to 20s now.
 
Last year Meccas Angel was the outstanding ante-post bet of the year at York. I feel the same way about Quiet Reflection for the Commonwealth Cup. 5/1 is a great price.
 
LBM said:
Last year Meccas Angel was the outstanding ante-post bet of the year at York. I feel the same way about Quiet Reflection for the Commonwealth Cup. 5/1 is a great price.
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She was most impressive on Saturday, that's for sure.

It's a very fair price and it would look very good if her main market rival, Acapulco, were to go for the King's Stand. Having initially said he was targeting the Commonwealth Cup, Ward said after her recent win in the States (over 5f) that he was considering his options or words to that effect.

Her running style is such that five is surely her best trip.

I've had a bit on the double at 47/1.
 
LBM said:
Last year Meccas Angel was the outstanding ante-post bet of the year at York.
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Well done if you made money on her but I'd have to think long and hard before ever backing her ante-post given her specific ground requirements and her connections' propensity for pulling her out on the day of the race.
 
gus said:
For reasons given earlier on this thread, I'm with Grand Inquisitor in the Hunt Cup. He was kindly dropped a pound by the handicapper after his Victoria Cup run. 33/1 was available when the weights came out but he's down to 20s now.
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Don't have my notes to hand with regards official ratings for recent Hunt Cups, but remember when looking at it last week and thinking he was a shade of odds against to make the line-up from his mark. Obviously could try and get a penalty with would guarantee him a shot.
 
davidjohnson said:
Don't have my notes to hand with regards official ratings for recent Hunt Cups, but remember when looking at it last week and thinking he was a shade of odds against to make the line-up from his mark. Obviously could try and get a penalty with would guarantee him a shot.
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You're right. He wouldn't have got in any of the last three runnings.

It's something I normally have a look at when placing this sort of bet. I can't think why I didn't on this occasion. Perhaps it just looked too high a mark for it to be a consideration.

I'll get my money back if he's declared but misses the cut, of course, but I'm not sure Stoutey is to be trusted on this sort of thing. Quite capable of saying he won't get in so don't bother declaring him.

Still, hope springs eternal.
 
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