Ante-Post - Flat 2016

Desert Orchid said:
Good shout, gus.

I've taken 8/1 Librisa Breeze to follow up in a fortnight's time in the Balmoral.

I reckon he'll be well in under his penalty as he's sure to get a fair hike for today and is clearly several pounds better than the bare form - and improving. The extra furlong won't be a problem. I suspect he might be up against slightly better opposition but he could be 5/2 on the day.
Click to expand...

Penalties only apply to wins after October 1, so if he runs in the Balmoral it will be off his reassessed mark rather than the old one plus a penalty. To be honest, I don't think it would make much difference as yesterday's winning margin limits how far the handicapper can put him up and I suspect it will be in the region of 6lbs which is also the size of the penalty specified in the race conditions.

But be careful. Ivory's post-race comments suggest he's more likely to go for the Group One sprint on the card.
 
Thanks, gus. That's the problem when the RP advanced card doesn't include the race conditions. Any idea where I can find them?

I heard Ivory's post-race comments but I'm not sure he's 110% serious about going for the sprint. The horse clearly has speed but it would be another step back up in class against horses that would be much faster than anything he's faced so far. I'd wonder what would be the point of of doing that when he could beat up handicappers and collect £150k. There'll be plenty of time next season for Group races, I'd have thought.

Having said all that, I reckon yesterday's performance was that of a Group horse, just maybe not a G1 one.

Edit

PS

When I checked yesterday, the weights were already published so I presumed they couldn't be reassessed and that penalties would accrue to winners after the publication of the weights. Have I been blissfully ignorant of actuality all these years??

PPS

Just checked again. It's the ORs that are listed, not the weights. My bad/stupid.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks, gus. That's the problem when the RP advanced card doesn't include the race conditions. Any idea where I can find them?
Click to expand...

They were in the paper edition on Thursday.

It's a real fault with the website. I can't understand why that information can't be included online given that it appears in the paper.

I remember a few years back a runaway winner of the Racing Post Chase - a Philip Hobbs horse, as I recall - and there was all sorts of confusion as to whether he'd carry a penalty in that three-miler on the first day of the Festival or be reassessed. I think I ended up backing him ante-post on the strength of remarks from Hobbs that the penalty scenario would apply only to find out that he'd been put up something like 17lbs and that was the mark he'd run off at Cheltenham.
 
Anyone thinking of backing Spain Burg for next year's 1000 Guineas needs to be aware that she was sold at auction in France yesterday and will be trained in the USA in future.
 
gus said:
They were in the paper edition on Thursday.

It's a real fault with the website. I can't understand why that information can't be included online given that it appears in the paper.
Click to expand...

Thanks, gus. I can't remember the last time I bought the paper. Must be at least five years ago.

I know that I often have to check the Weekender (which I do buy) for certain things like wfa allowances and of course you're right. Whatever is in the paper should be on the website, especially for subscribers.
 
Pretty much done on the flat now, but looking ahead to Champions Day I've taken some 10s about Minding for the QEII. Boyles stand out at that price and I'm just guessing that with Found franking the IC form yesterday it would maybe be wise for the lads to avoid Almanzor and go for the easier race.
 
Almanzor is mighty short at 7/4 for the CS albeit the race is likely to cut up a good piece more than the Irish version did.
Having said that,Fascinating Rock's big goal now is to retain his title and I think 6/1 is a good price and Weld will be very keen to pick an Autumn Grp 1 up after he made a bit of a pigs ear of Harzand's Arc preparation.
 
My ante-post bets on Boynton for the Dewhurst have bitten the dust. Appleby had said he was being aimed at the race but he's not among the five-day decs so I assume he's met with some sort of setback. If it's been announced, I've missed it.

A horse I am surprised to see is a possible runner is Blue Point, his stable companion. Last comment from Appleby after the Middle Park was to the effect that he'd be put away and trained for next year's Commonwealth Cup but it seems they may have had a rethink. If I could get confirmation he would run I'd be seriously interested in him at 7/1. I think he'll stay 7f and I reckon his best run - the Gimcrack - is better than anything the odds-on Churchill has produced.
 
I've had an each-way bet this morning on Nakeeta for the Cesarewitch at the 25/1 on offer with Betfair Sportsbook who are paying quarter the odds on the first five home on Saturday.

This horse has been a model of consistency all season, his only poor run coming when down the field in the Northumberland Plate on the new AW surface at Newcastle. As a result, he's gone up in the handicap (from 93 to 99) without actually winning a race but he's shown enough to suggest he'll at least be competitive on Saturday and he's back up to this trip for the first time since he was short headed over it from a wide draw in the Chester Cup in May.

He's a strong traveller, an uncomplicated ride, and although he'll have it to do with the handicap snips, Sweet Selection and (if he gets in) St Michel, I think that's a very decent price in the circumstances.
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
Pretty much done on the flat now, but looking ahead to Champions Day I've taken some 10s about Minding for the QEII. Boyles stand out at that price and I'm just guessing that with Found franking the IC form yesterday it would maybe be wise for the lads to avoid Almanzor and go for the easier race.
Click to expand...

The fact that Found is being mentioned as a possible for the CS suggests this may be a runner. Probably a lot depends on the ground too.
Interesting to note that it was soft on Saturday but the inner track (to be used for the CS only) was reported yesterday as being good to firm, firm in places. One for Fascinating Rock backers to take note of.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Good shout, gus.

I've taken 8/1 Librisa Breeze to follow up in a fortnight's time in the Balmoral.

I reckon he'll be well in under his penalty as he's sure to get a fair hike for today and is clearly several pounds better than the bare form - and improving. The extra furlong won't be a problem. I suspect he might be up against slightly better opposition but he could be 5/2 on the day.
Click to expand...

Librisa Breeze has gone up from 108 to 113. So, if he goes for the Balmoral he'll be a pound better off than he would have been off 108 plus a 6lb penalty.
 
gus said:
Librisa Breeze has gone up from 108 to 113. So, if he goes for the Balmoral he'll be a pound better off than he would have been off 108 plus a 6lb penalty.
Click to expand...

Yeas, I was just coming on here to say as much (no doubt I'll be accused of aftertiming for that) so I imagine they might be very tempted to go for the handicap. I hope so.

EC1, not sure what you mean. Obviously I do have internet access and subscribe to RP but not sure what other stuff you're referring to?

I've done searches for race details but not come up with anything much.
 
Memo to self: I really must stop letting hope triumph over experience. Backing Godolphin horses ante-post really isn't the way to go. I'd already written off my (small) stake on Easy Victory for the Guineas but I didn't expect Sobetsu (on whom I have a bigger bet for the Oaks) to bomb out like she did yesterday. Fortunately, Rhodedendron did the business in style. I still think she's a middle distance filly for next year and I topped up my Oaks bet on her with Corals at their standout 10/1 last night.
 
I am minded to have an AP bet on Aneen (winner 1st at Curragh today) for the Oaks next year.

Would anybody have an opinion on her stamina limitations?
 
I'd go on style of racing rather than pedigree with her's. The sire has had Linamix's and Rainbow Quest's that don't get 12f, but then had the Leger winner.
 
Librisa Breeze has been taken out of the handicap and left in the sprint.

I hope it wins and justifies the bold move but surely the handicap would have been a lot easier.
 
an capall said:
I am minded to have an AP bet on Aneen (winner 1st at Curragh today) for the Oaks next year.

Would anybody have an opinion on her stamina limitations?
Click to expand...

Watched it after getting in from work. Pretty impressive.

A mile will clearly suit next spring and she'll probably stay 10f but she's unlikely to get the Oaks trip on pedigree. You can never be totally dogmatic but I'd have thought her best chance of classic success is a Guineas. A number of firms - surprisingly - have Irish 1000 markets and I'd expect her to be quoted in that soon enough.
 
Her dam won a maiden on a Student's race night at Limerick so her stamina should be much better than ours!
i was taken by her in her first race at Leopardstown and liked the way she went away in the last 100 yds today.
Much much better to come as second dam is by Sahm, whose dam Salsabil did great things.
Sahm also paternal grand sire of Cliff House, star of J J Walsh's stable so an ante post is a must bet for you Colm !
 
an capall said:
I am minded to have an AP bet on Aneen (winner 1st at Curragh today) for the Oaks next year.

Would anybody have an opinion on her stamina limitations?
Click to expand...

33/1 in a place for the Guineas at Newmarket. 20/1 quote for the Irish version. No prices as yet for the Oaks.

That Irish Guineas quote might not look too bad if the trainer decides to campaign her like he did her half-brother this year.
 
20+ runner £150K handicap off a mark of 113 'a lot easier'. I can't have it.

Hoof It won the Stewards Cup off 111 and ran to 125 on Timeform, he also ran to 125 when beaten in a 3-way photo for the Haydock Sprint Cup. To place in the Balmoral, Librisa Breeze would have to run to a level of form comparable with finishing in the first 3 in a Group 1 sprint.

He may not prove fully effective at the trip, though I think he will, but I certainly don't think Librisa Breeze is going to be outclassed.
 
Back
Top