Ante-Post - Flat 2016

Jamie Spencer jocked up to ride Banksea on the Post site. I'd been hoping for Atzeni.

Good job I took the each-way option.
 
Spencer has his faults but it's true when Tom Segal says that his style of riding is conducive to big field handicaps, I'd be more than happy to see him riding a hold up horse like Banksea on Saturday.
Group races are a different matter however where I never see him as a positive.
 
Aye.

It looks like Atzeni's off to Haydock to ride several Varian runners.

To be fair, I can hardly express the view that I'd like to see Banksea ridden from well off the pace and then complain when Jamie Spencer's booked.
 
Euronymous said:
I've been looking at the Sprint on Champions day because Mecca's Angel heads the market and is not a 6f horse, and Quiet Reflections was below form (even though she won the race) over C&D at the Royal meeting. Twilight Son appeals, especially if Limato misses the race, I'm hoping he goes for the Foret again.
Click to expand...

I certainly think Mecca's Angel is worth opposing at the trip and I'd much prefer Quiet Reflection of the two. I hadn't considered the Ascot angle but it's a fact that her win there wasn't up to the standard (and style) of the Haydock performances.

I've backed Brando each-way. The draw clearly played a part in the Ayr Gold Cup but he decisively gave weight and a beating to plenty of good horses drawn near him and the fifth there, Kimberella, easily won a competitive Ripon handicap yesterday under a big weight. For me, the Ayr run is rock solid on form and time and is pretty conclusive evidence that Brando is much better suited by 6f than 5f (which makes it easier to discount his Group 1 and 2 defeats). There are no doubts about him at Ascot, either - beaten a head off 101 when 2nd of 28 in the Wokingham on his only run there.

I think I've read that he's a possible runner in the Abbaye next week but he's a hardy horse, clearly thriving, and running there shouldn't preclude him going to Ascot.

16/1 is available with several firms and that looks excellent value to me.
 
Last edited:
Haven't gone through full field yet for the Challenge Cup at Ascot on Saturday, but I'm keen on Intransigent, currently 31 in the list to get in. Rated as high as 110 eighteen months ago, he'll carry no more than 9 stone on Saturday on a mark of 94, having come back to form last time at Chester. I can see him going very well each way. D-Day I reckon for him. Surely won't go off 33's either!
 
Last edited:
Marble said:
Haven't gone through full field yet for the Challenge Cup at Ascot on Saturday, but I'm keen on Intransigent, currently 31 in the list to get in. Rated as high as 110 eighteen months ago, he'll carry no more than 9 stone on Saturday on a mark of 94, having come back to form last time at Chester. I can see him going very well each way. D-Day I reckon for him. Surely won't go off 33's either!
Click to expand...

The maximum field is only 18 so I doubt he'll get in. Seems ridiculous to me but it must be something to do with preserving ground for Champions' Day. If he did get in, he might struggle to reverse the Chester form with Above The Rest although I can see the argument that that race panned out perfectly for the winner.

Librisa Breeze is up to a mark of 108 but his Ascot form is very convincing and he looks like an intended runner with Winston already jocked up in the Post. He's a best-priced 10/1 and I'm backing him each-way. He'll go off shorter than that on Saturday, especially if the current fav - Castle Harbour, 23 on the list - doesn't get in. He probably will but it's not certain.
 
Good luck with Librisa, has a good chance if declared for sure.
Re-Intransigent, I thought he looked very well in himself at Chester, especially after a poor summer campaign where he's finished down the field in half a dozen races. The big field on Saturday would suit him more than Above The Rest, who has tended to win small field races. I've got a hunch Intransigent is very well handicapped now, I'm waiting until Thursday to see if he's declared.
 
Taken 9/2 about Ervedya in the Sun Chariot. She should get her optimum conditions for the first time this season and she ran well enough in the Marois on dodgy Deauville ground. Alice Springs is a worthy favourite but has had a lot of racing and it wouldn't surprise to see her throw a bad one in.
 
Euronymous said:
Taken 9/2 about Ervedya in the Sun Chariot. She should get her optimum conditions for the first time this season and she ran well enough in the Marois on dodgy Deauville ground. Alice Springs is a worthy favourite but has had a lot of racing and it wouldn't surprise to see her throw a bad one in.
Click to expand...

do do you know if Soumillon is riding?
 
Liz Price ‏@LizPriceRacing <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> 24 hhace 24 horas</small>
Rumour has it @christo68914587 is riding Ervedya in sun chariot? If that's the case get on, he has a brilliant strike rate @NewmarketRace

1 retweet4 me gusta
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover js-actionButton js-actionReply" data-modal="ProfileTweet-reply" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative;">Responder
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionRetweet" data-modal="ProfileTweet-retweet" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative;">Retwittear
1
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionFavorite" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative;">

Me gusta
4
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative;">Más
</button>


 
I respect Ervedya's chance and I like Soumillon as a jockey but I have never in my life backed a horse because its jockey has a good record at a particular track. And I never will.
 
gus said:
I certainly think Mecca's Angel is worth opposing at the trip and I'd much prefer Quiet Reflection of the two. I hadn't considered the Ascot angle but it's a fact that her win there wasn't up to the standard (and style) of the Haydock performances.

I've backed Brando each-way. The draw clearly played a part in the Ayr Gold Cup but he decisively gave weight and a beating to plenty of good horses drawn near him and the fifth there, Kimberella, easily won a competitive Ripon handicap yesterday under a big weight. For me, the Ayr run is rock solid on form and time and is pretty conclusive evidence that Brando is much better suited by 6f than 5f (which makes it easier to discount his Group 1 and 2 defeats). There are no doubts about him at Ascot, either - beaten a head off 101 when 2nd of 28 in the Wokingham on his only run there.

I think I've read that he's a possible runner in the Abbaye next week but he's a hardy horse, clearly thriving, and running there shouldn't preclude him going to Ascot.

16/1 is available with several firms and that looks excellent value to me.
Click to expand...

12/ Shalaa looks a fair bet in this; if only as a lay after what looks a stroll in the park Saturday.
 
Last edited:
Anyone thinking of backing Magical Memory ante-post for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (for which he's quoted by a number of firms) needs to be aware that he won't run. Charlie Hills states in today's Weekender: "I hoped to run Magical Memory in the Bengough Stakes at Ascot on Saturday, but unfortunately he has a minor injury that will rule him out for the rest of the year."

Can't think what they were doing giving him a prep run over 6f at Ascot. Perhaps they were looking to get a bigger price for the BC. Either that or Hills has a memory like a goldfish.
 
gus said:
The maximum field is only 18 so I doubt he'll get in. Seems ridiculous to me but it must be something to do with preserving ground for Champions' Day. If he did get in, he might struggle to reverse the Chester form with Above The Rest although I can see the argument that that race panned out perfectly for the winner.

Librisa Breeze is up to a mark of 108 but his Ascot form is very convincing and he looks like an intended runner with Winston already jocked up in the Post. He's a best-priced 10/1 and I'm backing him each-way. He'll go off shorter than that on Saturday, especially if the current fav - Castle Harbour, 23 on the list - doesn't get in. He probably will but it's not certain.
Click to expand...

Spot on with your early analysis, Gus. I'm following you in on Librisa.
 
Strictly speaking, it's no longer an ante-post market but I've been interested all week in the market for Saturday's Rous Stakes at Ascot.

Three firms were betting on the race on Tuesday evening and all of them had Double Up as 5/2 fav. That looked very short and sure enough he is now much more sensibly priced at 7/2 despite the likes of Goldream and Marsha coming out but I still can't understand his price relative to Kimberella, my fancy, who opened at 10s and has remained there all week. Those odds were still available following the 48-hour decs today although he's now been cut to 9/1.

Each of them has run off 105 in competitive sprint handicaps this month. Double Up was beaten just over two lengths when 4th of 20 in the Portland, a similar run to Kimberella's 5th of 23 in the Ayr Gold Cup, beaten three and a half lengths. However, each has run since. Double Up was third in a minor conditions race at Beverley, a run which to my eyes doesn't look quite as good as the Portland one. Kimberella, on the other hand, won a decent sprint handicap at Ripon last Saturday in impressive style off a mark of 104. Clearly improved form, it seems to me, and the handicapper agrees with Kimberella now rated 109. Double Up remains on 105. That looks right and yet we have Kimberella, in the form of his life and on something of a roll, at substantially longer odds than Double Up.

It's true that Double Up has winning form at Ascot and Kimberella doesn't but the latter's only previous run there was this time last year when he wasn't the same horse as he is now and he was out of form generally. It's also true that Kimberella's win at Ripon was over 6f and Saturdays race is over 5f but he has an excellent run to his credit this season over the minimum trip at Epsom so it's hard to think Ascot's stiff 5f will be a problem.

Of the others priced in single figures, Sole Power and Medicean Man look on the downgrade nowadays. The three-year-olds, Priceless and Willytheconqueror, both have respectable chances but they are shorter in the market than Kimberella and their form doesn't quite look as good as his.

9/1 looks very fair to me.
 
Last edited:
Double Up has remained friendless since the final decs were made and is 5/1 with Corals and Hills at present.
 
gus said:
Librisa Breeze is up to a mark of 108 but his Ascot form is very convincing and he looks like an intended runner with Winston already jocked up in the Post. He's a best-priced 10/1 and I'm backing him each-way. He'll go off shorter than that on Saturday, especially if the current fav - Castle Harbour, 23 on the list - doesn't get in. He probably will but it's not certain.
Click to expand...
Mint! :)
 
Good shout, gus.

I've taken 8/1 Librisa Breeze to follow up in a fortnight's time in the Balmoral.

I reckon he'll be well in under his penalty as he's sure to get a fair hike for today and is clearly several pounds better than the bare form - and improving. The extra furlong won't be a problem. I suspect he might be up against slightly better opposition but he could be 5/2 on the day.
 
Back
Top