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Apt Approach
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
U
useful
Guest
Gareth, you tell me?
I was specifically referring to Galileo's comment "If I owned Ballytrim, Freds Benefit, Equus Maximum, Fiveforthree etc etc I was would be disappointed if my trainer (a bumper training specialist) didn’t send my horse to Cheltenham after looking a world beater on the track".
There is very little to correlate success in the Pattern events at Cheltenham (which hold more kudos than the Bumper) and running in the bumper. So, if I were an owner of the horses desribed I would have insisted they were given another year to develop.
Jim Dreaper deliberately avoided sending Carvill's Hill to Cheltenham in his novice hurdling year in order that he could conserve as much of his talents for steeplchasing.
I was specifically referring to Galileo's comment "If I owned Ballytrim, Freds Benefit, Equus Maximum, Fiveforthree etc etc I was would be disappointed if my trainer (a bumper training specialist) didn’t send my horse to Cheltenham after looking a world beater on the track".
There is very little to correlate success in the Pattern events at Cheltenham (which hold more kudos than the Bumper) and running in the bumper. So, if I were an owner of the horses desribed I would have insisted they were given another year to develop.
Jim Dreaper deliberately avoided sending Carvill's Hill to Cheltenham in his novice hurdling year in order that he could conserve as much of his talents for steeplchasing.
Bar the Bull
Dormant account
Florida Pearl
French Holly
Alexander Banquet
Joe Mac
King’s Road
Paris Pike
Monsignor
Golden Alpha
Be My Royal
Ned Kelly
Pizarro
Rhinestone Cowboy
Back in Front
Thisthatandtother
Iris’s Gift
Calling Brave
Trabolgan
Dempsey
Davenport Democrat
Crossbow Creek
Cornish Rebel
Refinement
Missed That
De Soto
Lennon
Mister Top Notch
Wichita Lineman
Albertas Run
Perce Rock
Have all suffered from running in the race.
French Holly
Alexander Banquet
Joe Mac
King’s Road
Paris Pike
Monsignor
Golden Alpha
Be My Royal
Ned Kelly
Pizarro
Rhinestone Cowboy
Back in Front
Thisthatandtother
Iris’s Gift
Calling Brave
Trabolgan
Dempsey
Davenport Democrat
Crossbow Creek
Cornish Rebel
Refinement
Missed That
De Soto
Lennon
Mister Top Notch
Wichita Lineman
Albertas Run
Perce Rock
Have all suffered from running in the race.
The fact a horse ran in the bumper wouldn’t it off me in the least….off the top of my head I can think of subsequent Grade 1 winners that include French Holly, Joe Mac, Alexander Banquet, Missed That, Rhinestone Cowboy, Back In Front etc. All did well after their runs in the bumper.
U
useful
Guest
Melendez,
Try Golden Miller, Arkle, L'Escargot, Tied Cottage, Sir Ken, Comedy Of Errors, Bula, Persian War, Master Smudge, Forgive N Forget, Earthmover, Scot Lane, Sentina, The West Awake, Davy Lad, Hilly Way, Skymas, Drinny's Double etc, etc, etc.
Try Golden Miller, Arkle, L'Escargot, Tied Cottage, Sir Ken, Comedy Of Errors, Bula, Persian War, Master Smudge, Forgive N Forget, Earthmover, Scot Lane, Sentina, The West Awake, Davy Lad, Hilly Way, Skymas, Drinny's Double etc, etc, etc.
U
useful
Guest
I wasn't saying the bumper prevented horses from going on to future successes per se. I was very specific about referring to future festival success, in response to Galileo's point.
Harbinger
Dormant account
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2004
- Messages
- 11,282
Yes, I know, but given that there's so compartively few Festival™ races, that they're so competitive, and that far from every horse is even qualified to run in the Champion Bumper, I'm not sure whether that actually means anything.
U
useful
Guest
It does in the context of responding to Galileo's comments about being an "owner" of one of Mullins' festival aspirants.
I would argue that an onwer would be better served avoiding the Festival Bumper with a horse considered "Cheltenham material" and keeping him for a tilt at either a novice hurdle or chase there in future years. The history books show a whole host of dual festival winners in hurdles and chases and both. Those horses who have gone from the festival bumper to future festival success have failed to follow up again. And remember, of the bumper winners, only 3 (Monsignor, Montelado and Florida Pearl) from 15 have actually added to their festival success.
If of course as an owner you are simply "desperate" for a festival runner and cannot be bothered waiting for the horse to develop mentally and physically then you are perfectly entitled to go to the bumper - but statistically you seriously damaing the chances of winning there again.
I would argue that an onwer would be better served avoiding the Festival Bumper with a horse considered "Cheltenham material" and keeping him for a tilt at either a novice hurdle or chase there in future years. The history books show a whole host of dual festival winners in hurdles and chases and both. Those horses who have gone from the festival bumper to future festival success have failed to follow up again. And remember, of the bumper winners, only 3 (Monsignor, Montelado and Florida Pearl) from 15 have actually added to their festival success.
If of course as an owner you are simply "desperate" for a festival runner and cannot be bothered waiting for the horse to develop mentally and physically then you are perfectly entitled to go to the bumper - but statistically you seriously damaing the chances of winning there again.
As opposed to the Supreme Novices winners (drawn from a wider group of more mature horses) 2 of which have gone on to future championship success in the same period as the bumper has been run, and the Sun Alliance Hurdle winners 2 of which also have won championship races in the same period.
Edit:
Forgot Istabraq, probably more. Same difference. It just isn't easy to move from closed to open competition.
PRICEWISE2008
Dormant account
Will Apt go off favourite for the bumper?? I reckon myself he probably will..around the 4/1 or 9/2 mark.
U
useful
Guest
Melendez, if we widen it out from winners of those races to just runners, which is where my Bumper stats began, the story is telling:
In the period you have selected (92-07)
RSA hdle produced: Brief Gale, Istabraq, Dorans Pride, Hardy Eustace, Inglis Drever and Denman. Three of those were multiple subsequent champions.
The Supreme produced: Hors La Loi III, Call Equiname, Best Mate, Kicking King, Brave Inca, War of Attrition, My Way De Solzen, and Sublimity.
In addition to these "champions" both races threw up future festival winners: Trainglot, Brief Gale, Sparky Gayle, Reveillez, Barna Noy, Big Strand, and Thisthatandtother.
These two races are rich in tradition and have provided many festival greats such as Flyingbolt, L'Escargot, Bula, Davy Lad, Buck House, Dawn Run, Desert Orchid and so on.
The festival bumper has so far failed to live up to the hype surrounding it as a source of future champions. Apart from Iris's Gift none of the horses who have competed have risen to the heights of true champion. I accept Monsignor and Montelado were prevent from showing how good they were in open company due to injury, however so was Golden Cygnet.
By the way I think the RSA stats are a little misleading as more recently it has been common to aim potential Gold Cup class animals at the Arkle, as was the case with Best Mate (his Arkle tilt prevented by foot and mouth), Kicking King and War of Attrition.
In the period you have selected (92-07)
RSA hdle produced: Brief Gale, Istabraq, Dorans Pride, Hardy Eustace, Inglis Drever and Denman. Three of those were multiple subsequent champions.
The Supreme produced: Hors La Loi III, Call Equiname, Best Mate, Kicking King, Brave Inca, War of Attrition, My Way De Solzen, and Sublimity.
In addition to these "champions" both races threw up future festival winners: Trainglot, Brief Gale, Sparky Gayle, Reveillez, Barna Noy, Big Strand, and Thisthatandtother.
These two races are rich in tradition and have provided many festival greats such as Flyingbolt, L'Escargot, Bula, Davy Lad, Buck House, Dawn Run, Desert Orchid and so on.
The festival bumper has so far failed to live up to the hype surrounding it as a source of future champions. Apart from Iris's Gift none of the horses who have competed have risen to the heights of true champion. I accept Monsignor and Montelado were prevent from showing how good they were in open company due to injury, however so was Golden Cygnet.
By the way I think the RSA stats are a little misleading as more recently it has been common to aim potential Gold Cup class animals at the Arkle, as was the case with Best Mate (his Arkle tilt prevented by foot and mouth), Kicking King and War of Attrition.
U
useful
Guest
Yes.
The race is far too limited in my book to have "hype" for future champions. These are only horses that have run usually no more than two or three times, have not seen an obstacle of any sort and would, generally speaking, be fast maturing relative to their age group.
Sure it is a race to keep an eye on as undoubtedly there will be plenty of talented animals coming out of it, as there have been, but expecting the winner to be a nailed on future superstar is a nonsense. I reckon the runners in the race have had at least the level of success I would expect (I suppose it depends on your expectations) and there is simply no indication that the race is any more harmful to the participants than any other race at Cheltenham.
Sure it is a race to keep an eye on as undoubtedly there will be plenty of talented animals coming out of it, as there have been, but expecting the winner to be a nailed on future superstar is a nonsense. I reckon the runners in the race have had at least the level of success I would expect (I suppose it depends on your expectations) and there is simply no indication that the race is any more harmful to the participants than any other race at Cheltenham.
U
useful
Guest
There is no concrete evidence of that Melendez, you are quite right.
However, I return to one of my original points, most participants in the Festival Bumper will be extremely inexperienced and the trauma of the Festival may leave its mark. It is probably most similar to the Triumph Hurdle in this respect.
Usually, though not always, the hurdling novices either have a season running in bumpers under their belt, or will be more battle hardened going into the race.
I think what is significant is that no winner of the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase or Gold Cup has even run in a Festival Bumper, let alone win it.
Regarding the "hype". I totally agree with your views on the race. I just think that certain quarters of the media over play the significance of the Fesitval Bumper, and I have read a lot of informed people on various forums describing it as one of their favourite races especially the tradition of seeing the horses in the pre-parade ring, and thinking you are seeing a future champion in its infancy. The stats don't support this view. I have a strong suspicion this probably started after Florida Pearl won his RSA and we all thought he was the next Arkle - or at least I did!
However, I return to one of my original points, most participants in the Festival Bumper will be extremely inexperienced and the trauma of the Festival may leave its mark. It is probably most similar to the Triumph Hurdle in this respect.
Usually, though not always, the hurdling novices either have a season running in bumpers under their belt, or will be more battle hardened going into the race.
I think what is significant is that no winner of the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase or Gold Cup has even run in a Festival Bumper, let alone win it.
Regarding the "hype". I totally agree with your views on the race. I just think that certain quarters of the media over play the significance of the Fesitval Bumper, and I have read a lot of informed people on various forums describing it as one of their favourite races especially the tradition of seeing the horses in the pre-parade ring, and thinking you are seeing a future champion in its infancy. The stats don't support this view. I have a strong suspicion this probably started after Florida Pearl won his RSA and we all thought he was the next Arkle - or at least I did!
U
useful
Guest
Presumably Charity Lane now hoses up at Cheltenham having just won by over a distance under a pentaly at Ayr, beating a Swinbank hotpot and a well regarded Richards animal? Surely the most impressive bumper performance of the season so far?
Galileo, precisely my point. The bumper strikes me as the wrong race to aim a horse at about whom connections have any aspirations of greatness. As I said, if all you want is a Cheltenham winner at all costs, by all means send a horse there. But statistically it is highly unlikely you will end up with a Champion on your hands afterwards.
Galileo, precisely my point. The bumper strikes me as the wrong race to aim a horse at about whom connections have any aspirations of greatness. As I said, if all you want is a Cheltenham winner at all costs, by all means send a horse there. But statistically it is highly unlikely you will end up with a Champion on your hands afterwards.
For that list Barry countered it with another list:
Florida Pearl
French Holly
Alexander Banquet
Joe Mac
King’s Road
Paris Pike
Monsignor
Golden Alpha
Be My Royal
Ned Kelly
Pizarro
Rhinestone Cowboy
Back in Front
Thisthatandtother
Iris’s Gift
Calling Brave
Trabolgan
Dempsey
Davenport Democrat
Crossbow Creek
Cornish Rebel
Refinement
Missed That
De Soto
Lennon
Mister Top Notch
Wichita Lineman
Albertas Run
Perce Rock
Many of those ARE jumping stars that you would have classed as the type not to go for the bumper. But they did...did it do them any harm?
U
useful
Guest
Galileo that is not the point I was making. How many of those in that list became Champions? 1, Iris's Gift.
All of the evidence available indicates that running in the Festival bumper does not concur with attaining future champion status at the Festival over obstacles.
I haven't produced a list of future graded hurdles and chase winners at any meeting emanating from the Novice Hurdles at the Festival because that was never my point.
I think you are moving the goalposts somewhat as we go along.
All of the evidence available indicates that running in the Festival bumper does not concur with attaining future champion status at the Festival over obstacles.
I haven't produced a list of future graded hurdles and chase winners at any meeting emanating from the Novice Hurdles at the Festival because that was never my point.
I think you are moving the goalposts somewhat as we go along.
To be honest I am not sure what the goal posts were...most of these posts are in response to your line
"could it be concluded he is guilty of "obsessing" about this race, possibly at the risk of over facing immature young horses?"
That suggests to me you were suggesting the races damages many horses future careers. The list that I have copied from Bar The Bull suggests otherwise.
You then swung to the idea that it stopped horses winning at the festival again....
"could it be concluded he is guilty of "obsessing" about this race, possibly at the risk of over facing immature young horses?"
That suggests to me you were suggesting the races damages many horses future careers. The list that I have copied from Bar The Bull suggests otherwise.
You then swung to the idea that it stopped horses winning at the festival again....
U
useful
Guest
I have already shown that more subsequent festival winners have been produced by the RSA Hurdle and the Supreme Novices since 1992.
Take out one outstanding year for the Bumper (2002 which produced 3 future Festival winners) and you end up with a miserly 7 from 340 runners.
As regards the comments about Mullins in particular "overfacing" young horses in the Bumper, how many of his horses have gone onto future festival glory? 1, Florida Pearl.
Thats a pretty poor stat considering the numbers of runners he has had - 25 I believe.
That would seem to suggest that where he is concerned a far less than average number of his contenders have managed to win again at the Festival.
Taking a quick scan down the list of all future Festival winners that have come out of the Champion Bumper I suspect the majorit, if not all were more battle hardened than most.
Take out one outstanding year for the Bumper (2002 which produced 3 future Festival winners) and you end up with a miserly 7 from 340 runners.
As regards the comments about Mullins in particular "overfacing" young horses in the Bumper, how many of his horses have gone onto future festival glory? 1, Florida Pearl.
Thats a pretty poor stat considering the numbers of runners he has had - 25 I believe.
That would seem to suggest that where he is concerned a far less than average number of his contenders have managed to win again at the Festival.
Taking a quick scan down the list of all future Festival winners that have come out of the Champion Bumper I suspect the majorit, if not all were more battle hardened than most.
