U
useful
Guest
Guys, notice you ignored this post.
I wonder if the Mullins trained failure at Clonmel had just won by upwards of 40 lengths how high the pulses would be racing on here. The aftertiming would reach record highs!
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I wonder if the Mullins trained failure at Clonmel had just won by upwards of 40 lengths how high the pulses would be racing on here. The aftertiming would reach record highs!
U
useful
Guest
Since 1992 I believe those to be the correct stats.
Am I right in thinking only impressive Bumper winners in Ireland are worthy of mention on here?
Am I right in thinking only impressive Bumper winners in Ireland are worthy of mention on here?
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Nope - but the stats would suggest that an impressive bumper winner in Ireland is generally a better guide to the big dance itself than one in the UK.
You can use statistics to prove anything. The fact is that some horses train on and some don't. The ones that don't, you need to take advantage when you can. Think of O'Brien two year olds. He knows which will win group 1 two year old races and which will train onto as three year olds and races them accordingly. It is the same with the Cheltenham bumper. The speedy sorts are trained for the race and invariably they wouldn't improve much over time. Yet they have the opportunity now to beat the more improving types who will progress going forward. It has been proven that horses that run in the bumper can go on to achieve lots of success. They join a much bigger pool of horses when they go hurdling. Those that won't make it, like Joe Cullen, Joe Mac, Rhythem Section, Mucklemeg etc etc have their moments, pick up injuries, or are just too small to make it hurdling or chasing. The larger stamps of horses like the florida Perals, Rhinestone Cowbiy, Dato Star etc etc progress and have natural ability. We agonised long and hard about sending a young horse to cheltenham and ultimately it does come down to wanting to run at the greatest national hunt event of the year, the olympics of jump racing. If I owned any of Willie's bumper horses I'd be eager to go. He might not be as good as Florida Pearl but he's better than Joe Cullen!! Some dreams you cannot buy and if the trainer says the horse shouldn't go then dont send him, if he says he has every right and ability to go, then go.
True, but then again there is a more impressive set of stats which is more likely to source you the winner in recent times. All you need to do is look when the horse was introduced by way of debut. Since the year 2000 the pattern is very clear, and I personally like a series of strong stats like this that can be backed up with a perfectly plausible and common sense explanation by way of cause and effect.
Cork All Star - July 14th
Hairy Molly - December 28th
Missed That - May 1st
Total Enjoyment - May 1st
Liberman - May 17th
Pizarro - April 24th
Joe Cullen - June 7th
In other words, whilst the flat season is in full swing, the champion Bumper horses are in the process of announcing their arrival. To put this in context, that's 6 of the last 7 winners starting their campaign before mid July. All you need do now is take an ante post list and start applying this filter. You might get a shock to discover just how few actually conform with this pattern, (about 15%) yet they provide about 80% of the most recent winners. When it comes to drawing up a short list, it's one of the quickest and best ways of sorting any Cheltenham race given that eliminates so many in one fly past, and yet still seems to source the winner.
Useful
You are a pain in the arse
You say only Iris Gift became a champion?!
Florida Pearl won several big races including a KG...deserves to be called a champion
Of the others you listed, Joe Mac died an unfortunate death after looking a star at Aintree. French Holly had the misfortune to be in the generation of Istabraq...others ran big races in other big races and won major races elsewhere.
You are a pain in the arse
You say only Iris Gift became a champion?!
Florida Pearl won several big races including a KG...deserves to be called a champion
Of the others you listed, Joe Mac died an unfortunate death after looking a star at Aintree. French Holly had the misfortune to be in the generation of Istabraq...others ran big races in other big races and won major races elsewhere.
U
useful
Guest
Lest deal with these 1 by 1.
Garney
The Champion Bumper has delivered 10 subsequent Festival winners: Monsieur Le Cure, Montelado, Florida Pearl, French Holly, Monsignor, Back In Front, Thisthatandtother, Iris's Gift, Trabolgan and Wichita Lineman. 10 from 340 runners.
My original argument centred on whether Mullins has become obsessive about the race possibly at the risk of damaging the potential of young immature horses. His disproportionately high entry levels compared with any other trainer suggest this to be the case (25 runners in 12 runnings, with 21 coming in the past 7 renewals).
Somebody said he was a "bumper specialist". He certainly appears to be a Cheltenham Bumper "obsessive". To date from what I gather he has won only 1 major Spring NH Festival Bumper outside of Cheltenham (ie Aintree, Punchestown of Fairyhouse) - Maringo in 1995 at the Punchestown Festival.
It was also suggested if an owner had a horse good enough for the bumper they would be happy for Mullins to take that route. As an owner of a horse with Cheltenham festival aspirations I would personally prefer to go for the vastly higher prize money of a Supreme Novices or Sun Alliance Hurdle.
Del Boy
In every season Mullins has gone to the Cheltenham Bumper mob handed bar 1 all of his horses finished unplaced. And when Joe Cullen was the winner of his 4 2000 Runners, he was not the most fancied of the quartet. It strikes me therefore as a pointless exercise trying to determine who is his best bumper horse in seasons when history shows he won't even know.
Cantoris
Nothing you say is untrue. But why not go the RSA Hurdle or Supreme Novices route? The prize money is double, and the horse gets experience jumping. My main point about Mullins is why is he block entering in the Bumper and not the hurdle races? I think it probably has something to do with him making his name in this race, and following the retirment of Florida Pearl is star has been in the descendant. By displaying "success" in Bumpers in the pre-Cheltenham part of the season he hopes to attract owners by saying "I can give you a runner at Cheltenham". Why does no other trainer come remotely close to him in number of entries this decade?
Warbler
Excellent and unusual stat. Worth bearing in mind. Though blind laying the favourite since 1992 would have bagged a nice 9.5 point profit. So this race is actually quite easy to read in a lot of respects.
Bobbjo
Bobby, forgive me if I have ever hurled insults and expletives at you in the past. Oh no, I haven't, - I forgot. Why do you do so to me then?
If you actually read my posts before hurling insults my way you will have read that I stated that Iris's Gift was the only Champion Bumper runner, let alone winner, to "attaining future champion status at the Festival over obstacles".
By this he is the only one to have won either the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers Hurdle or Gold Cup.
It is my assertion that the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham is far from a source of future festival Champions.
You will also note that I have conceded that 10 Bumper Runners went on to win at the Festival - bagging 3 Sun Alliance Chases, 2 Sun Alliance Hurdles, 2 Supreme Novices Hdls, a Stayers Hurdls, a Daily Telegraph Chase, and a Brit Insurance.
The form of Joe Mac's Aintree win was abysmal, and he was slammed 17 lengths by Hor La Loi. in the Supreme Novices. There is absolutely no evidence to support a theory he was capable of attaining "Champion" status.
French Holly may have gone on to be a top class chaser, but we will sadly never know.
Florida Pearl was a tremendously popular horse - one of my all time favourites. He was afforded joint Best Staying Chaser status by Timeform in 2001/2002 so maybe I have been slightly unfair on him in that respect. But the fact remains Timeform have only top rated Florida Pearl (in a tie!) and Iris's Gift out of all of the horses to have run in the Champion Bumper.
Garney
The Champion Bumper has delivered 10 subsequent Festival winners: Monsieur Le Cure, Montelado, Florida Pearl, French Holly, Monsignor, Back In Front, Thisthatandtother, Iris's Gift, Trabolgan and Wichita Lineman. 10 from 340 runners.
My original argument centred on whether Mullins has become obsessive about the race possibly at the risk of damaging the potential of young immature horses. His disproportionately high entry levels compared with any other trainer suggest this to be the case (25 runners in 12 runnings, with 21 coming in the past 7 renewals).
Somebody said he was a "bumper specialist". He certainly appears to be a Cheltenham Bumper "obsessive". To date from what I gather he has won only 1 major Spring NH Festival Bumper outside of Cheltenham (ie Aintree, Punchestown of Fairyhouse) - Maringo in 1995 at the Punchestown Festival.
It was also suggested if an owner had a horse good enough for the bumper they would be happy for Mullins to take that route. As an owner of a horse with Cheltenham festival aspirations I would personally prefer to go for the vastly higher prize money of a Supreme Novices or Sun Alliance Hurdle.
Del Boy
In every season Mullins has gone to the Cheltenham Bumper mob handed bar 1 all of his horses finished unplaced. And when Joe Cullen was the winner of his 4 2000 Runners, he was not the most fancied of the quartet. It strikes me therefore as a pointless exercise trying to determine who is his best bumper horse in seasons when history shows he won't even know.
Cantoris
Nothing you say is untrue. But why not go the RSA Hurdle or Supreme Novices route? The prize money is double, and the horse gets experience jumping. My main point about Mullins is why is he block entering in the Bumper and not the hurdle races? I think it probably has something to do with him making his name in this race, and following the retirment of Florida Pearl is star has been in the descendant. By displaying "success" in Bumpers in the pre-Cheltenham part of the season he hopes to attract owners by saying "I can give you a runner at Cheltenham". Why does no other trainer come remotely close to him in number of entries this decade?
Warbler
Excellent and unusual stat. Worth bearing in mind. Though blind laying the favourite since 1992 would have bagged a nice 9.5 point profit. So this race is actually quite easy to read in a lot of respects.
Bobbjo
Bobby, forgive me if I have ever hurled insults and expletives at you in the past. Oh no, I haven't, - I forgot. Why do you do so to me then?
If you actually read my posts before hurling insults my way you will have read that I stated that Iris's Gift was the only Champion Bumper runner, let alone winner, to "attaining future champion status at the Festival over obstacles".
By this he is the only one to have won either the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers Hurdle or Gold Cup.
It is my assertion that the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham is far from a source of future festival Champions.
You will also note that I have conceded that 10 Bumper Runners went on to win at the Festival - bagging 3 Sun Alliance Chases, 2 Sun Alliance Hurdles, 2 Supreme Novices Hdls, a Stayers Hurdls, a Daily Telegraph Chase, and a Brit Insurance.
The form of Joe Mac's Aintree win was abysmal, and he was slammed 17 lengths by Hor La Loi. in the Supreme Novices. There is absolutely no evidence to support a theory he was capable of attaining "Champion" status.
French Holly may have gone on to be a top class chaser, but we will sadly never know.
Florida Pearl was a tremendously popular horse - one of my all time favourites. He was afforded joint Best Staying Chaser status by Timeform in 2001/2002 so maybe I have been slightly unfair on him in that respect. But the fact remains Timeform have only top rated Florida Pearl (in a tie!) and Iris's Gift out of all of the horses to have run in the Champion Bumper.
Harbinger
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You're presenting the Bumper and the Novice Hurdles as a straight choice. It's not that clear cut, as Cantoris pointed out.
I'm guessing there's also some perpetuation in the Mullins/bumper connection. Do his owners buy horses with a specific goal of running them in the bumper?
I'm guessing there's also some perpetuation in the Mullins/bumper connection. Do his owners buy horses with a specific goal of running them in the bumper?
Glencove Marina won the Goffs Bumper at Punchestown and Major Vernon and Nay both won big bumpers at the Punchestown Festival along with Missed That, Whither Or Which, Florida Pearl, Joe Cullen and Alexander Banquet At Cheltenham. Pretty good return in recent years.
I would have thought that would be pretty obvious. By the time the Supreme Hurdle or Sunalliance Hurdle comes around most of the horses are exposed on the track and the trainer will know for sure what level they can reach. In the festival bumper the horses go there with just one or two runs to his or her name…most often impressive wins…that’s why he enters them all up. As they are exposed and could be anything……just as Joe Cullen showed.
You tend to do that when you win the race 5 times and at one stage he was going for his fourth straight win.
Oh dear oh dear.....I realise that you probably don’t rate them as they are Irish based but he is the leading trainer in Ireland based on winners this season and has the Grand National Favourite. Since Florida Pearl he has won Grade 1s with Glencove Marina, won a Grand National with Hedgehunter (also placed in a Gold Cup), won a Supreme Hurdle with Ebaziyan, J’y Vole won the Moriarty Chase etc etc. What on earth are you talking about….suggesting a trainer like Willie Mullins needs the publicity or something!?!
Fun thread
No strong opinion other than Ive often wondered if Mullins has been hyped up to be a more talented trainer than he is
I suppose hyped by whom is the answer to that, But seen the godawful "genius" word thrown around on occasions...which doesnt make a lot of sense to me
Always liked the bloke though
Florida Pearls biggest crime was that he didnt quite stay the GC distance. Big echos of Wayward lad there. I thought he was an excellent chaser and suprerior to many a GC winner at that time. Ive long thought that the KGV tended to produce the classier champion anyway
No strong opinion other than Ive often wondered if Mullins has been hyped up to be a more talented trainer than he is
I suppose hyped by whom is the answer to that, But seen the godawful "genius" word thrown around on occasions...which doesnt make a lot of sense to me
Always liked the bloke though
Florida Pearls biggest crime was that he didnt quite stay the GC distance. Big echos of Wayward lad there. I thought he was an excellent chaser and suprerior to many a GC winner at that time. Ive long thought that the KGV tended to produce the classier champion anyway
U
useful
Guest
Galileo you are becoming delusional now. Mullins is in absolutely no way inthe same league as either of the two you mention.
I am not ante Irish. My all time heroes training wise are M V O'Brien and Tom Dreaper. Nicholls may one day be mentioned in the same breath as those two. Willie Mullins NEVER WILL!
I am off to watch Noland win now. I will refer to your other comments presently.
I am not ante Irish. My all time heroes training wise are M V O'Brien and Tom Dreaper. Nicholls may one day be mentioned in the same breath as those two. Willie Mullins NEVER WILL!
I am off to watch Noland win now. I will refer to your other comments presently.
U
useful
Guest
Ok I am back now. Noland not looking good value now at 3/1!!!
Anyway, to the points you raise Gal.
When I referred to races outside of the Festival Bumper I was actually referring to the Grade 1 Bumper at Punchestown, the Grade 2 Bumper at Aintree and the Goffs - I'll let you have Glencove Marina, although that race is actually confined, so is not a true championship event.
I have already mentioned his 5 winners at Cheltenham so there is no point in using them. My point is that outside of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper (which I suggest he is overly obsessed with) he has little notable success in the main races at the other festivals in races of Championship Status.
Outside of his 5 Cheltenham Bumper wins, his haul makes depressing reading for his fans. 5 winners (Tourist Attraction, Florida Pearl, Scolardy, Rule Supreme and Ebaziyan). Take Florida Pearl out of the equation and his record in top races is even worse.
Try comparing this with the countless top class victories attributed to Nicholls (you can bring Henderson in as well if you like, I didn't and dont need to).
It is a myth Mullins is a top class trainer worthy of comparison with the true greats either side of the Irish Sea. Noel Meade has been shut down for two months and still leads him in the trainers title. Mullins last won a trainers title in Ireland in 2003/4 - that would suggest he has been on a downard curve on that basis alone.
If you say he has not been in the shadows since Florida Pearl catapulted him to almost star status, tell me how many King Georges, Gold Cups, Champion Hurdles, and Champion Chases he has won since Florida went off to his happy retirement?
You will point to his success with Hedgehunter in the Grand National (a horse oddly enough he never won a bumper with!). But that only makes him on a par with Ted Walsh, Tommy Carberry and J J Mangan.
Granted, he was unfortunate to lose Glencove Marina to injury and I wouldn't wish that on any one. And J'Vole and Pomme Tiepy look nice types (ironically both French imports as opposed to Bumper graduates!). But until he has a trophy haul remotely resembling Paul Nicholls (or Martin Pipe for that matter) you are only kidding yourself if you think W P Mullins is top class.
It is somewhat surprising to me that scanning the current Irish Trainers title Edward O'Grady still stands out as the only one who has been able to enjoy notable and numerous successes in the top meetings in the UK. And other than Skys The Limit he has had a quiet few seasons, not seeming to enjoy the same level of support he once had from the likes of Magnier and McManus - which I think is a shame.
Anyway, to the points you raise Gal.
When I referred to races outside of the Festival Bumper I was actually referring to the Grade 1 Bumper at Punchestown, the Grade 2 Bumper at Aintree and the Goffs - I'll let you have Glencove Marina, although that race is actually confined, so is not a true championship event.
I have already mentioned his 5 winners at Cheltenham so there is no point in using them. My point is that outside of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper (which I suggest he is overly obsessed with) he has little notable success in the main races at the other festivals in races of Championship Status.
Outside of his 5 Cheltenham Bumper wins, his haul makes depressing reading for his fans. 5 winners (Tourist Attraction, Florida Pearl, Scolardy, Rule Supreme and Ebaziyan). Take Florida Pearl out of the equation and his record in top races is even worse.
Try comparing this with the countless top class victories attributed to Nicholls (you can bring Henderson in as well if you like, I didn't and dont need to).
It is a myth Mullins is a top class trainer worthy of comparison with the true greats either side of the Irish Sea. Noel Meade has been shut down for two months and still leads him in the trainers title. Mullins last won a trainers title in Ireland in 2003/4 - that would suggest he has been on a downard curve on that basis alone.
If you say he has not been in the shadows since Florida Pearl catapulted him to almost star status, tell me how many King Georges, Gold Cups, Champion Hurdles, and Champion Chases he has won since Florida went off to his happy retirement?
You will point to his success with Hedgehunter in the Grand National (a horse oddly enough he never won a bumper with!). But that only makes him on a par with Ted Walsh, Tommy Carberry and J J Mangan.
Granted, he was unfortunate to lose Glencove Marina to injury and I wouldn't wish that on any one. And J'Vole and Pomme Tiepy look nice types (ironically both French imports as opposed to Bumper graduates!). But until he has a trophy haul remotely resembling Paul Nicholls (or Martin Pipe for that matter) you are only kidding yourself if you think W P Mullins is top class.
It is somewhat surprising to me that scanning the current Irish Trainers title Edward O'Grady still stands out as the only one who has been able to enjoy notable and numerous successes in the top meetings in the UK. And other than Skys The Limit he has had a quiet few seasons, not seeming to enjoy the same level of support he once had from the likes of Magnier and McManus - which I think is a shame.
W P MULLINS is every bit, as good as nicholls and nicky henderson( who is my
favourite english trainer).The one man i would use, if i had enough money to have a horse in training is the legend that is W P MULLINS. ps i'm english.
U
useful
Guest
Mullins won the title in 2004 (the year Florida Pearl gave us one last flurry of Grade 1 glory). As FP signed out Rule Supreme won the RSA - a false dawn unfortunately.
2005 his number of winners and prize money dropped. Meade won. One Festival Winner - surprise surprise the Bumper!
2006 he won more money and more races, however he still lost the trainers title. The bar had been raised, but Meade was still Mullins' superior. No festival winner.
2007 Mullins has more winners than the previous year, but Meade still manages to win the title. Suggests Mullins stays in the race with quantity not quality.
Strike rate of Mullins fairly consistent averaging 14.4% (I deliberately left out his really bad 2003 so as not to skew any figures.
In the same period Nicholls has won 2 titles, and been defeated only by the legend that is M C Pipe. He averaged a Strike Rate of 22.6% with far greater numbers of runners than Mullins or Mead for that matter. He has done this in a far more competitive environment being challenged by the massed ranks of O’Neill, Pipe Jnr, King, Henderson and Hobbs.
Also, in that same period Nicholls accumulated no less than 11 Cheltenham Festival Winners, including a Champion Chase, a Gold Cup, and two RSA Chases.
I am becoming increasingly stunned that anybody in their right mind can make a claim that Mullins is as good a trainer as Nicholls.
Worth noting too that only one of those winners contested the Festival Bumper prior - Thisthatandtother.
2005 his number of winners and prize money dropped. Meade won. One Festival Winner - surprise surprise the Bumper!
2006 he won more money and more races, however he still lost the trainers title. The bar had been raised, but Meade was still Mullins' superior. No festival winner.
2007 Mullins has more winners than the previous year, but Meade still manages to win the title. Suggests Mullins stays in the race with quantity not quality.
Strike rate of Mullins fairly consistent averaging 14.4% (I deliberately left out his really bad 2003 so as not to skew any figures.
In the same period Nicholls has won 2 titles, and been defeated only by the legend that is M C Pipe. He averaged a Strike Rate of 22.6% with far greater numbers of runners than Mullins or Mead for that matter. He has done this in a far more competitive environment being challenged by the massed ranks of O’Neill, Pipe Jnr, King, Henderson and Hobbs.
Also, in that same period Nicholls accumulated no less than 11 Cheltenham Festival Winners, including a Champion Chase, a Gold Cup, and two RSA Chases.
I am becoming increasingly stunned that anybody in their right mind can make a claim that Mullins is as good a trainer as Nicholls.
Worth noting too that only one of those winners contested the Festival Bumper prior - Thisthatandtother.
U
useful
Guest
Tout Seul, interesting call. Fits perfectly with Warbler's theory. My concern would be the abysmal record of favourites in this race as I am assuming Zaarito starts favourite?
To be honest though I don't follow Bumper form too closely these days, as you may have gathered! Although I would like to see how the George Moore thing that won at Ayr yesterday fared if given his chance. Noticed it went to the sales but was unsold for 80k in Jan - bet someone is gutted now! No doubt it will be snapped up by Wylie's people or perhaps one of Richards' patrons such as Davidson or Stephenson.
To be honest though I don't follow Bumper form too closely these days, as you may have gathered! Although I would like to see how the George Moore thing that won at Ayr yesterday fared if given his chance. Noticed it went to the sales but was unsold for 80k in Jan - bet someone is gutted now! No doubt it will be snapped up by Wylie's people or perhaps one of Richards' patrons such as Davidson or Stephenson.