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Ascot Chase

Ian's initial preview

Pic D'Orhy - Farms races over this trip at Ascot, ought to be paying inheritance tax, really, ten isn't THAT old but the trainer isn't in the best of form

L'Homme Presse - Beaten by the above in this last year, same age, 3m plus park course chaser really.

Corbetts Cross - Another circuit might help this NH Chase winner who will be just about getting going when the football results come in.

Hitman - If you haven't figured out this is the biggest bridle horse in training by now, the angels will weep for you.

Le Patron - Missed Saturday because of the ground (which wasn't actually that bad) despite being a Heavy ground Grade 1 winner as a novice. Detest the yard, but he did look a progressive 7yo when winning at Newbury in November.

Flegmatik - Needs to start now to make the frame and that's not allowed.

Blue Lord - Beaten 33l by Champion Chase winner in waiting Solness at Leopardstown. Beaten 28l prior to that. In dismal form, but his trainer is one to keep an eye on. You might have heard of him. (If you haven't you've been living in a cave).
 
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Sort of in agreement with Ian can't see Corbetts cross liking the trip and 5/2 seems ridiculous. Where I'd probably differ is I think Le homme presse is more of a danger this year different prep, bigger gap between races might help again more rain would help bring the trip back to him a little bit. Wouldn't like to split him and pic though tbf and as long as Corbetts cross remains in 2nd place in the betting there has to be some value for the reverse forecast on last year's 1-2. That's probably the way I'd play it anyway.


Ignore me I'm talking bollocks forgot Le homme Presse had run in the Cotswold chase at the end of January thought he was coming straight from King George really haven't been paying attention. Still wouldn't be surprised to see the same 1-2 as last year though.
 
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I think Pic D’orhy will repeat the dose, although the current form of Nicholl’s runners is a concern as is the unlikely possibility that Corbetts Cross has improved his jumping.
 
How I was able to back that at evens in running with less than a circuit to go, after it had already shown me it was on good terms with itself and was already jumping them all into the ground, I will never know.

My birthday was last Sunday, not today. 😂

Corbetts Cross would have needed another circuit to get competitive, as stated before the race.
 
Pic d’Orhy the only question was whether he was the same horse at 10 - Corbetts Cross’s price over that trip was absurd . Running LHP seems to have backfired badly.
 
LUKE said:
Do you think it is significant that Heltenham runs in that race instead of Flegmatik,
Click to expand...

Hard to tell, Luke. At first I thought it might be but when they took F out it made me rethink things. He's had a few runs recently so are they thinking he's not as good as he was? They've already got his mark right down. Are they targeting another good race here in a couple of weeks? Heltenham isn't an obvious type for this race. When I checked through this race itself, although F has been close/unlucky a couple of times, Skelton hasn't actually won it so maybe he doesn't target it after all.

I've taken the view that this is a prep for Heltenham ahead of the good Newbury race just down the line so I could be one very unhappy bunny at around 3.45 this afternoon.
 
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