AW Winter 2016/17

Marble said:
I'm keen on Chevallier in the 5:45 at Chelmsford. His record on the all weather is decent, (24242), and this might be his day to get his head in front off 86.
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Sticking with this today. 5:55 Chelmsford.
 
Agree with you Marble. Think he'd have gone very close the other day granted equal look. Trainer continues to impress and think the horse is still progressing.

Also think Graceful James is a good bet in the 7.25. Had some strong form when winning his maiden last year and though took a while to come to hand this time around, his last 2 runs have been more encouraging, and I think he's been shaping as if crying out for this longer trip looking at the videos of those last 2 efforts.
 
davidjohnson said:
Also think Graceful James is a good bet in the 7.25. Had some strong form when winning his maiden last year and though took a while to come to hand this time around, his last 2 runs have been more encouraging, and I think he's been shaping as if crying out for this longer trip looking at the videos of those last 2 efforts.
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Great Shout DJ :thumbsup:
 
Cheers. Thankfully I watched it alone so no one else could see or hear me shouting '**** off the grey' in the closing stages! Not sure how he held on, but mightily glad he did.
 
Flemenstar said:
One for tomorrow

Dazacam - 5:45 Wolves @ 7/1

Has shown tremendous early pace in his races over 6f & will be suited by the drop back to 5f tomorrow. He'll take some catching off his current mark IMO.
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Back out again tomorrow(4:15 Newcastle) & should be able to go in again despite the 5lb rise. Currently around 3/1
 
Mythical Madness (7.15) caught a tartar lto, but beat the rest of the field convincingly. Up in class today, but already heavily backed and the extra 200yds looks to be all in his favour.
Notable that Danny Tudhope rides him in preference to Steel Train at Newcastle, who looks a point and shoot fav for the big race there.
 
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One for tomorrow

Essenaitch - 5:10 Wolves @ 10/1

He seemed to pay the price with the handicapper for a couple of low key maiden wins as a 2yo & ended up running in his first Hcap off a mark of 88 has now dropped to a very lenient mark of 63 with Katherine Glenister claiming a further 7lb. Was sent off the 7/2 fav last time out over C&D here off a 3lb higher mark & was far to keen. I expect a far better performance under a more restrained ride if she can get him to settle.
 
Thanks, guys = was sorely needed, last week.
Mystical Madness should win again, as he can't go up much for that, yet reportedly dossed after he'd hit the front. Stable clearly think a lot of him.
 
Essenaitch, has taken a massive drift & is as big as 60 on BF win market & 8 on the place market. I'll keep the faith on a 20/80 split
 
Vroom (12.30) ran away with a c/d claimer on his first try on fibresand latest, and there are good reasons to believe the form is better than his 6/1 price tag allows. Was also the quickest time of the day, comparatively, and well worth a punt to prove the result was no fluke.
 
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Wolves 5:15 Friday

An interesting match up, between Upavon who we mentioned on here before 'when we wuz robbed'! And Kasbah who was staying on really well last time after arriving from Ireland to Amanda Perretts. There are others that could win as well.

My money will be on Kasbah. I reckon he'll land me my first winner on this thread at 5:15 tomorrow. His form with Arhoomey makes him well handicapped. 3 pound claimer should do nicely.
 
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Good luck with that, Marb - though I'll stick with Upavon. Up slightly in class today, but undeniably unlucky not to prevail lto, and has won off higher previously.
Royal Mezyan (3.15) was another stopped in his run latest, but careered right away from them when he did get through, and ought to be capable of taking this.
 
Cheers same to you, Reet. Kasbah has a class edge over Upavon I reckon. The prices were the wrong way around last night, at 7/2 Upavon 11/2 Kasbah.
 
A couple catch the eye at Newcastle today. First Stamford Raffles. Looked a 3-y-o going the right way in staying races when winning back to back earlier in the season. Beaten at a shortish price last time, but odds of 8/1 or so look an overreaction to that and no surprise if he gets back on track. Has a similar chance on the book to Aldreth who is shorter and has serious doubts about his resolution in the finish. The 2 recent winners dominate the market, but I think both won very weak contests, Dubawi Fifty in particular lazily priced on profile rather than what he's actually achieved.

Devious Spirit has already been backed, and there's probably not much juice left in his price to be honest now, but the way he went through his last race at the track suggests he's crying out for a drop back to this trip. Has a career-low mark now and surely won't be long before he's back to winning ways. Quite like the strength of the race that he ran in last time, so have doubled him up with the favourite in 6.45 Wolves, Canford Thompson who was also seen last in that contest. Looks a potential improver for this yard given his hurdling efforts and is very unexposed granted this sort of a test.
 
Saw your post on the Ascot thread DJ, cursing Gorden Elliott. I reckon we can get our own back with a runner of his tonight at Dundalk 7:00. Captain K 7/2. Form of his penultimate start at Wolves (where he got stopped when making a winning run) should see him win tonight. I think he is lobbed in off 48. Carries a nice low weight tonight, drawn nicely in stall 5, which is vitally important at Dundalk and back up to the mile trip which should be spot on. The enforcer Declan McDonagh takes the ride, which I also view as a positive.
 
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Indeed, some right shrewdies on this forum! :) Well done with Stamford Raffles. Thread is warming up.
 
Grendisar looks a pretty opposable favourite in the Quebec Stakes at 2.00 at Lingfield tomorrow. He's the obvious pick on ratings - but thay was also the case on his return from a break last time, but he didn't have that finishing kick that was seen to such good effect last winter/spring. He had looked to have turned over a new leaf, but historically he's a horse that hasn't always found winning easy and he makes for one to take on at 6/4. Battalion looked good last time, but is another who is likely to be held up, and in truth, is a bit of a dog. He'll presuambly be ridden the same as last time, where things opened up nicely on the inside for him - but I'm concerned both he and Grendisar could end up getting too far back. Can make a case for Educate on ratings, and he'll get the run of things, but maybe Dubai Fashion can improve past him and get first run on the other 2. She has looked a natural on synthetics, and should be 2 from 2 on it - Hanagan had a mare on her at Newcastle. She doesn't have much to find but this could pan out well for her I reckon.
 
Double Handful said:
Saw your post on the Ascot thread DJ, cursing Gorden Elliott. I reckon we can get our own back with a runner of his tonight at Dundalk 7:00. Captain K 7/2. Form of his penultimate start at Wolves (where he got stopped when making a winning run) should see him win tonight. I think he is lobbed in off 48. Carries a nice low weight tonight, drawn nicely in stall 5, which is vitally important at Dundalk and back up to the mile trip which should be spot on. The enforcer Declan McDonagh takes the ride, which I also view as a positive.
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Captain K currently 12.5 on the machine which is obviously not a good sign:blink:
It's interesting.... LTO there was a lot of market confidence and he ran poorly, but his penultimate start I reference above the exact same thing as tonight happened. He drifted like an absolute barge on the machine close to the off and still very nearly won!
Absolutely clutching at straws for a double bluff of sorts :whistle:
 
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