Ballymore Novices Hurdle

The thing with M de H - is how will he be on goodish ground?

I like Diamond Harry - they know he ran up a bit light that day in jan but he still was able to see off Bensalem . I like Mad Max too and don't quite see why Karabak is so much shorter than his Ascot conqueror.
 
Ardross said:
I like Mad Max too and don't quite see why Karabak is so much shorter than his Ascot conqueror.
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Was wondering that as well, Ardross. There's a lot of talk about his breathing (and indeed it must have some substance, given that he has had multiple breathing ops), and it seems to be at least partially responsible for his position in the market.

Can't have him myself. Wasn't particularly impressed with his jumping last time at Newbury and the fact they'll more than likely go a decent gallop as well as the contours of the track are enough to put me off backing him. In short, he just doesn't seem the type to win the race.
 
Mad Max is a lovely horse but he can also be bit of a handful - he was withdrawn from his race at Ascot earlier in the season after he went a bit mad in the saddling boxes and cut his head open.
 
Shadow Leader said:
As for Diamond Harry, for starters you (and plenty of others on here) have stated you can't have him; the likes of Ruby Walsh [and others] have named him as their Bismarck for next week and so many are crabbing him for which reason I cannot see.
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If the pundits continue to doubt this credentials there is every chance he`s gonna be a very backable price on the day.
 
His last run was when I was in Ireland and that performance left plenty with the opinion that the Irish would have something to cover him.

But with Hurricane Fly out, Cousin Vinny and Kempes almost certain to go for the Supreme and the ground a potential issue for Mikhael what are they left with? Wendel?

I agree with Euro, the more they talk him down, the more backable he becomes.
 
With the ground likely to be on the soft side of good (if not softer) who is likely to start favourite for this? Diamond Harry has been in the public eye for sometime so he is likely to have plenty of followers, JP could spark a gamble on Karabak while the regard in which Mullins/Walsh have in MDH could see support for him. Market should be fascinating in a race that looks much much stronger than the Supreme.
 
Karabak 100/30 on Betfair.

Just looking through Mikael D'Haguenet's form, whilst he has looked something of a machine thusfar, it's certainly not difficult to pick holes in it. Given that all of his form has come in small field races that haven't been run at a particularly fast gallop, this will undoubtedly be something of a new experience for him (and Mullins has expressed his doubts on a few occassions). I'm quite happy to leave him alone tbh.

In fact, having missed the boat with Karabak entirely, I'm quite happy to leave the race alone.
 
trackside528 said:
Karabak 100/30 on Betfair.

Just looking through Mikael D'Haguenet's form, whilst he has looked something of a machine thusfar, it's certainly not difficult to pick holes in it. Given that all of his form has come in small field races that haven't been run at a particularly fast gallop, this will undoubtedly be something of a new experience for him (and Mullins has expressed his doubts on a few occassions). I'm quite happy to leave him alone tbh.

In fact, having missed the boat with Karabak entirely, I'm quite happy to leave the race alone.
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He had no trouble handling 27 runners at Navan nor decent sized fields in France.

Most novice form at this stage can have holes picked in it. I am delighted to see the rain arrive virtually assuring us he will take part. With Hurricane Fly already missing, it would be a shame if we did not see the other top Irish novice turn up.
 
Mullins has already stated that ground like last years Festival would be just fine for Mikael - can't see it being any faster at this stage.
 
Galileo said:
He had no trouble handling 27 runners at Navan nor decent sized fields in France.

Most novice form at this stage can have holes picked in it. I am delighted to see the rain arrive virtually assuring us he will take part. With Hurricane Fly already missing, it would be a shame if we did not see the other top Irish novice turn up.
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Point taken, Gal, but in fairness that was a total jog and sprint affair.

Of course you can't crab the horse, given that he couldn't have been more impressive on any of his runs, but my slight worry is that he may just get caught out by the pace of the race (particularly his jumping) and the contours of the track. Certainly wouldn't be the first.

As I said before, I won't be laying him and am leaving the race well alone.
 
Can't see how he is going to want for pace over 2m5f, tracks - he's twice a winner over hurdles at the minimum trip. He's also won at Punchestown, so can reasonably be expected to handle an undulating track.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Related to which, the one thing which really gets my goat is reading spotlight comments in bumpers/novice hurdles/maidens (the former in particular) which read thus "only cost £8k so not likely to figure here/best watched/look elsewhere for the winner/likely to find a few too good/not likely to be good enough*..." et al.

*delete as applicable
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How profitable is your system then of backing cheaply bought horses with moderate pedigrees from unfashionable yards in maidens faring?
 
trackside528 said:
Given that all of his form has come in small field races that haven't been run at a particularly fast gallop, this will undoubtedly be something of a new experience for him
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Again I'm not sure there's too much evidence to support this notion. To my mind he's got both bases covered regarding pace.

For the setting of standard times Graeme North will have us believe that any winning TS within 7Ibs of the winning RPR is evidence of a true pace within the confines of the respective ability. In winning his grade 1 at Navan he ran a TS of 150 and an RPR 153, that he's recorded these figures at the top grade available to him is a pretty good indication that he can sustain a gallop, and one should be even more encouraged that he did it at 20F's. Stamina doesn't look like being an issue, neither does speed. If he wasn't able to susatin a strong gallop, and hadn't been exposed to a strong pace, he wouldn't have been able to post a TS that close to his RPR.

Personally, I think he repeated the dose in his grade 2 win at Punchestown. On this occasion he was given a TS of 112 and an RPR of 151.

There were 3 chases, 3 hurdles and 1 cross country race run on the card and my own figures adjusted to par indicate that the chase course was riding faster than the hurdle (I omitted the x country)


Chase
-4.00
-5.00
-5.00

Hurdles
-8.40 (Mikael)
-9.00
-10.33

At raw mile aggregates you get a similar picture;

-8.20 (Mansony - chase)
-10.60 (Forest Leaves - chase)
-10.60 (Colmanstown hope - chase)
-11.60 (Mikael - hurdles)
-13.70 (Socerer - hurdles)
-15.33 (Dashing George - hurdles)


Based on this, I'm prepared to suggest there's a full going description difference between the two courses, and if they're split with different track variances applied, then Mikael D'Haguenet has run very fast for a second time. If they variance is calculated across the card, then it's only a moderate performance. This time the performance was put up at 16F's suggesting that he has pace here too.

At the other end he's got two slow TS performances. One of these came at Navan again, in a madien hurdle where he recorded 27 and an RPR 133. This suggests a slow pace which he's won by using a decisive burst of acceleration to settle the issue. He beat 'What you cracking' by 4.5L's with a potentially telling gap back to third of 18L further. Interestingly, the much touted Cousin Vinny also beat 'what you cracking' in a novice hurdle and recorded slightly lower, (but comparable) figures of TS 14 and RPR 123. Cousin Vinny gave 2Ibs to the defeated horse but only put 3L's between the pair. This indicates that in the autumn at least, Mikael D'Haguenet, had run and won a very similar race to Cousin Vinny through the runner up, and on both occasions and the winners are very likely to have done so by showing the same level of acceleration off a slow pace. Cousin Vinny is of course now favourite for the Supreme (but can he win off a sustained gallop:)) The third placed horse was considerably nearer,(6L's) but this could be indicative of quality and depth of opposition as much as it would be the burst of speed that was used to spread eagle the respective fields. 'What You Cracking' ran to the same level against both, and at level weights there was nothing in it.

Finally Mikael D'Haguenet provided another demonstration that he can come off a slow pace with a burst of speed at Naas when he won a Grade 2 at 20F's this time by not having to rely on sustaining a gallop. He nothced a TS of 31 and an RPR of 153.

In short he's won two graded races at 20F's off both a fast and slow pace, so the biggest reservation would lie with the fact that he's unproven on a faster surface. Provided this presents no difficulty then I'd rate Amanda De Cadenet as the most likely winner.
 
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That's got bugger all to do with it - I don't back every cheaply bought horse!

However, to assume that because a horse cost less than £10k it must be crap is the biggest amount of bullshit I've come across in my life.

Some RP spotlight reporters though seem to think that the amount of money a horse cost has a direct correlation to its ability. Which is utter shite.

Actually, thinking about it, I must be up in a big way backing cheaply bought maidens with poor pedigrees from unfashionable yards. (oh and btw, cheaply bought doesn't always mean poor pedigree - trust me) I was instrumental in a fairly well known gamble at Towcester on a £1400 buy from Ascot who pissed up in a bumper within the last couple of years which netted me the best part of £10k. So you could say that my method is rather profitable!!!!
 
....oh, and if you backed every runner Anthony Honeyball has in a bumper - regardless of its price, he's bought plenty of cheapies at Ascot - you'd be quids in too.

I'm really quite hoping that my own cheap buys will also contribute towards sticking it up the arse of those who feel you have to spend a lot of money to buy a decent horse. The reality is that if you have half an idea of what constitutes a nice horse you can pick up immense bargains, especially at places like Ascot.

One of the nicest horses I've seen in a while is a lovely big mare with immense scope, tremendous paces and a lovely jump (as well as going well at home) who was bought for an insane £1900 at Doncaster. The mare is worth probably 3 - 4 times that amount at least, now, without having done anything.
 
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which netted me the best part of £10k
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Problem is, you probably put most of that 10k on Darkness to win the Sun Alliance....

In fairness though, I agree with the general point. I'm involved in a horse that cost 25k and he's pretty useless
 
Shadow Leader said:
....oh, and if you backed every runner Anthony Honeyball has in a bumper - regardless of its price, he's bought plenty of cheapies at Ascot - you'd be quids in too.

I'm really quite hoping that my own cheap buys will also contribute towards sticking it up the arse of those who feel you have to spend a lot of money to buy a decent horse. The reality is that if you have half an idea of what constitutes a nice horse you can pick up immense bargains, especially at places like Ascot.

One of the nicest horses I've seen in a while is a lovely big mare with immense scope, tremendous paces and a lovely jump (as well as going well at home) who was bought for an insane £1900 at Doncaster. The mare is worth probably 3 - 4 times that amount at least, now, without having done anything.
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There are bargins in every walk of life....some expensive things that do not work out as well as hoped and expensive things that work a treat.

Why you feel the need to "stick" your success "up the arse of those who feel you have to spend a lot of money to buy a decent horse" is beyond me much as it would be if someone who spent a heap load of money on a horse did the same to someone who spent little and got little in return.

Incidentally don't I remember Irish Stamp saying Mikael DH was an expensive purchase?
 
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I didn't say anything about IS saying Mikael was an expensive purchase! In a post quite a way back I mentioned that it was a pet hate of mine that spotlight writers have a habit of writing off cheap horses.

My comments viz-a-viz sticking the success up the arse of those who feel you have to spend a lot of money to buy a decent horse were precisely meant to mean that! Many spotlight writers and journalists hold the opinion that if a horse costs less than £10k it is utter shite. I'd like to show everyone that if you have half an idea about what a decent horse should look like allayed with its breeding then that observation is utter crap - if you know what you are looking for you can pick up huge bargains since thankfully, a lot of the people buying in these markets are nutters who wouldn't know a decent horse if it shat on them.
 
Shadow Leader said:
I didn't say anything about IS saying Mikael was an expensive purchase! In a post quite a way back I mentioned that it was a pet hate of mine that spotlight writers have a habit of writing off cheap horses.

My comments viz-a-viz sticking the success up the arse of those who feel you have to spend a lot of money to buy a decent horse were precisely meant to mean that! Many spotlight writers and journalists hold the opinion that if a horse costs less than £10k it is utter shite. I'd like to show everyone that if you have half an idea about what a decent horse should look like allayed with its breeding then that observation is utter crap - if you know what you are looking for you can pick up huge bargains since thankfully, a lot of the people buying in these markets are nutters who wouldn't know a decent horse if it shat on them.
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Surely the spotlight comments and that simply point it out as really expensive purchases are less common and people might find it interesting? I know in a two year old maiden if there was a 7.3 million purchase in there I would be keeping an eye out on it out of interest...there are plenty of examples.

Who are these journalists that think that a 10k is useless? I would imagine they do not mention the price tag of the 10k horses simply because they are so numerous compared to the 100,000k plus horses. The number of cheaply bought horses that have done extremely well right up to Grade 1/Group 1 level is there for all to see.
 
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Sir Percy? Natagora? Speciosa? Cockney Rebel?

With the issue of the Ballymore settled I thought we'd benefit from turning the thread into a flat one folks !!!!
 
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this race karabak is now fave because mcmanus has bought him and backed him ew for size ew 1/4 odds which in my opinion if you can get on leaves the bookmakers crapping bricks and is a bet to nothing looking at the market.
mdh or diamond harry will romp. DH ran last time on the wrong side of the track which people are overlooking, look what happened to fair along the same day....difference is dh won. mdh is a machine with pace and cant wait to see these two tear it up. will be backing each of them like mad on the day and laying jamie karabak.
 
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