Ballymore Novices Hurdle

Shadow Leader said:
Some RP spotlight reporters though seem to think that the amount of money a horse cost has a direct correlation to its ability ... quote]

Don't knock it though, Shadow. Many reading it will back the horses they have touted on those grounds, leaving those with an eye for a good horse (or minds of their own) to back their fancies at longer odds.
Click to expand...
 
I know the first thing that the owners did with Mikael's little sister Lola is ship her to Ireland for the sales ASAP when it turned out he looked quite decent. She sold for 30,000 Euro's.
 
Galileo said:
Who are these journalists that think that a 10k is useless? I would imagine they do not mention the price tag of the 10k horses simply because they are so numerous compared to the 100,000k plus horses.
Click to expand...

You'd be surprised, Gal - often I've read spotlights that say something along the lines of "only cost £8000 so best watched here....", such comments are fairly common in summing up the chances of bumper horses, even in the poorest races.

You don't have to spend vast amounts of money to get decent horses - llok at Nick Williams' horses for starters, he considers spending £20k on a horse a lot of money yet his results speak for themselves!

Don't forget either that I had a share in the £60,000 animal Bally Conn who won his bumper then wasn't sighted again until he was bought by another trainer at the sales at which time his most recent form read PPP!
 
Cringeworthy alright, Shads, but in fairness to them, there isn't a hell of a lot they can say about an unraced bumper horse apart from reverting to the usual, annoying cliches.
 
Warbler said:
Again I'm not sure there's too much evidence to support this notion. To my mind he's got both bases covered regarding pace.

For the setting of standard times Graeme North will have us believe that any winning TS within 7Ibs of the winning RPR is evidence of a true pace within the confines of the respective ability. In winning his grade 1 at Navan he ran a TS of 150 and an RPR 153, that he's recorded these figures at the top grade available to him is a pretty good indication that he can sustain a gallop, and one should be even more encouraged that he did it at 20F's. Stamina doesn't look like being an issue, neither does speed. If he wasn't able to susatin a strong gallop, and hadn't been exposed to a strong pace, he wouldn't have been able to post a TS that close to his RPR.

Personally, I think he repeated the dose in his grade 2 win at Punchestown. On this occasion he was given a TS of 112 and an RPR of 151.

There were 3 chases, 3 hurdles and 1 cross country race run on the card and my own figures adjusted to par indicate that the chase course was riding faster than the hurdle (I omitted the x country)


Chase
-4.00
-5.00
-5.00

Hurdles
-8.40 (Mikael)
-9.00
-10.33

At raw mile aggregates you get a similar picture;

-8.20 (Mansony - chase)
-10.60 (Forest Leaves - chase)
-10.60 (Colmanstown hope - chase)
-11.60 (Mikael - hurdles)
-13.70 (Socerer - hurdles)
-15.33 (Dashing George - hurdles)


Based on this, I'm prepared to suggest there's a full going description difference between the two courses, and if they're split with different track variances applied, then Mikael D'Haguenet has run very fast for a second time. If they variance is calculated across the card, then it's only a moderate performance. This time the performance was put up at 16F's suggesting that he has pace here too.

At the other end he's got two slow TS performances. One of these came at Navan again, in a madien hurdle where he recorded 27 and an RPR 133. This suggests a slow pace which he's won by using a decisive burst of acceleration to settle the issue. He beat 'What you cracking' by 4.5L's with a potentially telling gap back to third of 18L further. Interestingly, the much touted Cousin Vinny also beat 'what you cracking' in a novice hurdle and recorded slightly lower, (but comparable) figures of TS 14 and RPR 123. Cousin Vinny gave 2Ibs to the defeated horse but only put 3L's between the pair. This indicates that in the autumn at least, Mikael D'Haguenet, had run and won a very similar race to Cousin Vinny through the runner up, and on both occasions and the winners are very likely to have done so by showing the same level of acceleration off a slow pace. Cousin Vinny is of course now favourite for the Supreme (but can he win off a sustained gallop:)) The third placed horse was considerably nearer,(6L's) but this could be indicative of quality and depth of opposition as much as it would be the burst of speed that was used to spread eagle the respective fields. 'What You Cracking' ran to the same level against both, and at level weights there was nothing in it.

Finally Mikael D'Haguenet provided another demonstration that he can come off a slow pace with a burst of speed at Naas when he won a Grade 2 at 20F's this time by not having to rely on sustaining a gallop. He nothced a TS of 31 and an RPR of 153.

In short he's won two graded races at 20F's off both a fast and slow pace, so the biggest reservation would lie with the fact that he's unproven on a faster surface. Provided this presents no difficulty then I'd rate Amanda De Cadenet as the most likely winner.
Click to expand...

Well that's me put in my place! :D

I take your point about the Topspeed angle implying a true pace at Navan, but you can't seriously tell me that a 3-runner race on bottomless ground in any way compares to the Ballymore! Furthermore, Mikael D'Haguenet wasn't too clever over the last couple of hurdles but had no trouble dismissing a well below par Pandorama.

I'm not saying that he can't or won't win - far from it. Merely that I would be slightly concerned backing him given that it will undoubtedly be a totally new experience.

Gal, I take your point about all novice form being crabbed at this stage, but, strictly on form, he's certainly not a massive price against Diamond Harry and Karabak.
 
I know, but resorting to dismissing horses just because they were cheap is not only annoying, it's laziness in the extreme! Say something instead about the breeding, or the yard, or anything!
 
Fair enough Shadow Leader, re-reading your post you have only mentioned that people using purchase price alone to dismiss a horse irks you, I changed the argument slightly by briniging in pedigree and trainer. Agree totally with you about there being bargains out of there. Any success I have enjoyed as an owner (as well as failings) has come from horses bought out of sellers from yards we thought were underperforming with the talent at their disposal.
 
I am not in any way a jumps man (give me Royal Ascot any day over this lottery), and I've barely looked at the form of the opposition but my only major bet of the Festival is Quwetwo tomorrow.

How he is still 20/1, I have no idea. I think he'll thrive from the sort of race he'll get tomorrow and he's bloody huge and been mightily impressive in his 2 runs this year. If he'd won those 2 races at Newbury and Ascot rather than Doncaster at Ayr, he'd be single figures.

I'd be looking for a price for the National in a few years myself.
 
Shadow Leader said:
If I had all the money in the world I'd send a horse to Nick Williams long, long before I sent one to a Nicholls, Pipe, Jonjo or Mullins, for example.
Click to expand...


I`m with you on that. I was looking forward to seeing Beshabar this year until a) it was sent to PN and b) it then got injured. I`ve taken 9/2 on Diamond Harry.
 
trackside528 said:
Karabak 100/30 on Betfair.

Just looking through Mikael D'Haguenet's form, whilst he has looked something of a machine thusfar, it's certainly not difficult to pick holes in it. Given that all of his form has come in small field races that haven't been run at a particularly fast gallop, this will undoubtedly be something of a new experience for him (and Mullins has expressed his doubts on a few occassions). I'm quite happy to leave him alone tbh.

In fact, having missed the boat with Karabak entirely, I'm quite happy to leave the race alone.
Click to expand...


I think he should be a 6/4 shot now that there's been some rain.Devastating turn of foot that I can't see anybody living with in the straight.

My main bet for Tuesday.
 
Last edited:
Why is Karabak so much shorter than his conqueror Mad Max ?

I like Diamond Harry but it will have to be the Challow version not the skinny beast of late Jan to go close .

The ground appears to be right on the border of good to soft and soft . Will this be soft enough for M de H - he looks sure to make the frame though?
 
Weather: A cold start. Rather cloudy but mostly dry with just a small chance of the odd spot of rain. Gentle south-westerly winds. Max temp 12C (54F).
 
Personally i can't make my mind up between Karabak and Mikael D'Haguenet so i'll be having a reverse forecast.

I can only imagine that Karabak is a lot shorter than Mad Max because he appears to have progressed more since they last met. That's my opinion anyway. All will be revealed tomorrow.
 
I have backed Diamond Harry, and covered with Mad Max.

I have also place laid both Mikael DH and Karabak.

Diamond Harry has better form than both, and Mad Max should be shorter than Karabak.
 
Back
Top