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Betfair Ascot Chase

C

chroniclandlord

Senior Jockey
Joined
Oct 4, 2007
Messages
5,784
Location
Co. Armagh
I'm surprised that Fakir D'oudairies is as much as 9/4 for this, I think that he's a different class to the rest of these. I know that Saint Calvados and Fanion D'Estruval are rated within two pounds of him on official ratings but I think that these are examples of the BHA handicapper's ratings inflation.
 
It won't be the biggest shock in the world to me if he does outclass them but my view is why do figures if I'm not going to accept them. I feel obliged to back my judgment so it's Fanion for me.

I could end up looking like a right Fanion.
 
Some of us kept backing him from 11/2 down and you were all told he'd be fav on the day.
 
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For me, no one rides Ascot's chase course better than Deutsch and I'm hoping he can dictate his own fractions up front and steal five lengths from three out before keeping on strongly to the line.

If he can do that and Fakir still beats him then I'll probably need to revisit the Phoenix Way form.

It could be a great finish if they all run their race but I still fancy Fanion regardless of how it might unfold tactically.
 
How does he reverse the 41 1/2l beating from the Ryanair on Fakir's optiomal conditions?
 
Im with Slim on this. Took 11/2 in the week (of which some is running for a forum donation kindly from another member) and some for myself.

If he’s pushed out again tomorrow ill be going in again. Bet of the day for me.
 
Fakir - Likeliest winner but slight question on him getting round mistake free. 9/4 about right
Saint Calvados - Never wins and pumpkin doesn't seem to do well with these horses he gets from other trainers
Mister Fisher - Ground a possible negative but the biggest danger to the fav
Fanion - Not sure he's graded class but his run lto reads well esp as his jockey went for home a bit soon
Dashel - Not good enough
 
From the other thread:

Desert Orchid said:
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[TD]Fanion D'Estruval[/TD]
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[TD]171[/TD]
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[TD]Lostintranslation[/TD]
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[TD]169[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]Fakir D'oudairies[/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
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[TD]170[/TD]
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[TD]Mister Fisher[/TD]
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[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
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[TD]175[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]Waiting Patiently[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD](170)[/TD]
[TD]y[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]Dashel Drasher[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD]Saint Calvados[/TD]
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Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does.

Fanion - gave Fakir first run all the way, can do better.
LIT - flopped.
Fakir - let's say he ran to his rating.
Mr F - flopped.
WP - GATG
DD - beaten too far out to be his running.
Saint C - ditto
TFG - improved again?

The handicapper might just rate the race via Fakir and raise TFG (which will make him well in for the Nash) or rate the race via TFG and leave the others. I don't think any other lines are valid. He might go for 10yr standards.

I'll probably go down the first route.

I'm not unhappy with Fanion's run, just the ride. I can't get out of my head the notion that he was experimenting today.
Happy with TFG's run as far as that National bet is concerned.

Not convinced Fakir won as easily as his supporters expected but he did win it well.
 
Gvae him first run?

Come on. He whacked him.

Mister Fisher doesn't go on that ground.
 
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I've just watched the race all the way through again.

I'm more taken by Fanion's run than watching it live. I think he'll be better on better ground and ridden not so far back.

Gave Fakir a six length start, closed it down a bit at one stage (more due to Fakir getting a breather, possibly) and then gave him first run again from three out, closed him down all the way up the straight and passed TFG soon after the line.

Shaped like a stayer, I have to say. I wonder if he'll go up in trip now but for what?

All that said, I can accept that Fakir is better than the bare form too.
 
Seem to be on two threads, just put this on the other one.

On Timeform ratings https://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/foru...l=1#post768648 FAKIR and FANION difference panned out about right with TFG excelling. Given that TFG likes the mud I’d suggest he ran to or a bit better than his rating with the other two running below theirs.

Just on visuals I’d be surprised if FAKIR would be in trouble against any of them should they meet again
 
barjon said:
Seem to be on two threads, just put this on the other one.

On Timeform ratings https://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/foru...l=1#post768648 FAKIR and FANION difference panned out about right with TFG excelling. Given that TFG likes the mud I’d suggest he ran to or a bit better than his rating with the other two running below theirs.

Just on visuals I’d be surprised if FAKIR would be in trouble against any of them should they meet again
Click to expand...

Fakir will beat them all at Aintree.
 
Didn't look like a case for Poirot beforehand, and so it proved.
Good run from the second. Third clearly flattered to finish as close.
 

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