Betfair Chase Haydock Park Sat Nov 24th

Even if he wasn't fit, there isn't a shred of evidence that suggests MWDS would get within an asses roar of Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer. It's not like he's going to improve the best part of two-stone, for the benefit of a run. He won't be able to land a blow in the top staying races, regardless of how fit he is, or how well he stays. He's simply not in the same league as KS and ED.

The 2m and 2m4f divisions are much weaker than the staying division, and connections should start considering a campaign geared around races at those trips, imo. That's no knock to the horse either - there are no stayers in the same league as that pair, and Denman is the only one with any hope of breaking into that big-time.
 
Grasshoper what league was Exotic Dancer in this time last year...decent handicapper? At Cheltenham last year Turpin Green got within 3 lenghts of Exotic Dancer in third and at Kempton Racing Demon got within 2 lenghts of Exotic Dancer.

While fully appreciating the top two chasers we have it would be a sad day if we start encouraging trainers to avoid these to or not bother taking them on.
 
Whilst disappointed with MWDS' run on Saturday, let's not forget that he was beaten by Fair Along last year on his first run over fences and first time out over hurdles by Redemption. From King's comments, it seems he does take quite a bit of getting fit and his FTO runs would support that.

I don't think we can write him off completely. If anything King should be encouraged by the run if he really was unfit, as he travelled and jumped really well before seemingly blowing up.

If MWDS isn't able to lay down a challenge, who are we left with? Star De Mohaison or Denman? Not likely they will get too many opportunities to take on Kauto Star. Kicking King is unlikely to reach his peak again, same goes for Trablogan - the reverse forecast for the King George / Gold Cup could be a safe bet :)
 
On his first run last year, he came out of the race - a Grade 2 Hurdle - as best at the weights. He also came out best at the weights when beaten by Fair Along, which wasn't his first time over fences.

That's a far cry from falling over the line 42 lengths back.
 
Maybe so, but it's also a completely different class of race, and he left the form with Fair Along well behind on subsequent runs last year - why shouldn't we assume he will do the same here?
 
Yes - Grade 1 is a different class from Grade 2. Thanks for agreeing with that, I was doubting myself for a moment there.

He ran to an RPR of 150 behind Redemption, compared to his best of 166 over hurdles.

He ran to an RPR of 151 behind Fair Along - and the weight concession was mostly weight for age (looks like a 4lb penalty was in as well) given that Fair Along was only 4? So he didn't come out best at the weights in that race.

His highest RPR over fences last season was when winning the Arkle at 165.

Looks to me like he has a fair bit of improvement in him from the start of the season to the end.

Put it this way - if he can improve as much as Exotic Dancer did from Aintree (beaten 20 lengths getting 7lb) to Haydock (half a length) isn't it just conceivable that he might be in the frame at Kempton?

Or should they just not bother trying?
 
What has MWDS got to do with Exotic Dancer. Exotic Dancer was a lot closer at the last at Aintree to Kauto Star than MWDS was. Exotic Dancer was looked after for the final few fences, when the best he could finish was last. MWDS however could barely walk up from the last. The head on shot from the RUK repeat showed just how tired he was. I do hope it hasnt bottomed him.
 
I think it is a difficult one to analyse as far as My Way De Solzen is concerned. He didn't run well but you have to take into consideration that he is stepping back up in trip as well as it being his first time out.

We heard the same about Kauto Star after he ran at Aintree, "will we ever see the Kauto Star of old", etc...

He came out and put all his critics to bed.

It was My Way De Solzen's first run this season and he was travelling ok until the latter stages which could mean that his stamina and fitness was an issue, or that he doesnt stay the extended trip.

Who knows.

There is only one real way that we will find out, and that is at Kempton on Boxing Day.

I do feel My Way De Solzen would have run better if he had got a run out before Haydock last Saturday.
 
Welcome Gaz.

Stamina will not be such an issue at Kempton, although I suspect the track may not suit either horse. It should suit them both as you would imagine an easy three would be the ideal trip and both are fast jumpers, but Kauto was no great shakes on it last year(maybe the Tingle Creek was an issue), and you would suspect a dual Cheltenham festival winner in MWDS could not find a more different course. IF MWDS was competitive it should settle Shadow Leader's nerves.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Nov 27 2007, 08:08 AM
Grasshoper what league was Exotic Dancer in this time last year...decent handicapper? At Cheltenham last year Turpin Green got within 3 lenghts of Exotic Dancer in third and at Kempton Racing Demon got within 2 lenghts of Exotic Dancer.

While fully appreciating the top two chasers we have it would be a sad day if we start encouraging trainers to avoid these to or not bother taking them on.
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Gal, the difference is that Turpin Green has nowhere else to go. All he is is a 3m staying chaser.

MWDS is highly effective at 2m, and most likely at distances up to 2m6f, and there are plenty of quality pots to be hunted down by the horse, without persevering in a division where not only his stamina is questionable, but he would be meeting two horses that are head-and-shoulders above anything else.

I'm not saying 'Avoid Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer' - I'm saying 'Put the horse back over trips that are likely much more suitable, and where the opposition is much less exacting'.

I'm sure connections would rather pocket a Champion Chase or a RyanAir, than finish placed at best in a Gold Cup.
 
Yes - Grade 1 is a different class from Grade 2. Thanks for agreeing with that, I was doubting myself for a moment there.
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I thought you were arguing that fitness, and not class or stamina, was the issue with him on Saturday? If it was just fitness, and he was at a comparable level as his re-appearance last year, surely he'd have done better than that distant 5th? Even Beefy beat him all ends up without a prep, and he's about to start drawing his pension.

He ran to an RPR of 151 behind Fair Along - and the weight concession was mostly weight for age (looks like a 4lb penalty was in as well) given that Fair Along was only 4? So he didn't come out best at the weights in that race.
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It's not that important, but it depends on whether you include that WFA - the RP don't in their ratings.

His highest RPR over fences last season was when winning the Arkle at 165.

Looks to me like he has a fair bit of improvement in him from the start of the season to the end.
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He was one of the very best novice chasers of last year so of course he'll have shown significant improvement over the course of the season. But that's as much to do with the point you start at as anything else. He was rated at 145 after his debut over fences; he couldn't help but improve significantly on that. The higher he goes up the class scale, the less likely he is to show improvement.

Put it this way - if he can improve as much as Exotic Dancer did from Aintree (beaten 20 lengths getting 7lb) to Haydock (half a length) isn't it just conceivable that he might be in the frame at Kempton?

Or should they just not bother trying?
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The difference is that Exotic Dancer had already shown his ability; he was already rated on a par with the likes of Kicking King and Best Mate going into the race on Saturday. The vast majority of his improvement was down to fitness. MWDS, on the other hand, even when he's fully fit, still has to show an extra stone of ability that he never has before just to get within a whiff of Kauto and ED. You can't take that for granted.

By all means they should try at Kempton, but only because they haven't got much to lose. However, if they had to make a decision between the Gold Cup and the Champion Chase or Ryanair today, they'd be mad to go for the Gold Cup.
 
Originally posted by Garney@Nov 27 2007, 12:13 PM
Exotic Dancer was looked after for the final few fences, when the best he could finish was last. MWDS however could barely walk up from the last.
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This proves exactly what? That MWDS is useless but Exotic Dancer is the 2nd best chaser in the country when they were both unfit? Since when did an unfit horse being looked after make him no good? Your argument says the same about both horses - that they were looked after and struggled to finish as they were tired!

So, Exotic Dancer has shown his ability, yet a Stayers' Hurdle and Arkle winner hasn't, Gareth? How do you work that one out?!

What I am saying is that when MWDS comes out fully fit and gets beaten, then comments can be made about how good he may or may not be, or whether he stays or not. Until then, everyone is just guessing so remarks that he won't get near the "principle two" are rubbish, to be frank.

Melendez, my nerves are fine my dear so no need to worry - I just feel I have to comment when people start making ridiculous assumptions based on nothing!
 
So, Exotic Dancer has shown his ability, yet a Stayers' Hurdle and Arkle winner hasn't, Gareth? How do you work that one out?!
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I explained it perfectly well in my post.
 
And MWDS had a fight on his hands for third, fourth, before eventually being pushed over the line in fifth. He needed to be pushed because he wouldnt have completed left to his own devices. Again, he is out of shot on the side on camera, but its clear as day from the head on shot that RUK used on their replay. 35 minutes blowing you say. You seem to take this as a plus. Why is that such a good thing, when you, your respected partner at the races, and plenty of other paddock watchers thought he looked well enough to do himself justice. I would worry that they horse had a harder race than was neccessary for fifth placed prizemoney.

I dont think that Exotic Dancer's Aintree run has anything to do with MWDS Haydock run, but it has been used by those who think MWDS belongs with Exotic Dancer and Kauto Star, as evidence that horses can improve from their seasonal debut. I would expect some sort of improvement from his first run this year. However, I think that there was more that fitness behind his disappointing performance, and I will oppose him over 3m+ and against the front two in all races this year, because, I dont think that he is quite that good, and I dont believe he is the stoutest stayer.
 
I think the idea of treating all horses as 180 level performers until they prove otherwise is ridiculous.
 
I have not said that MWDS belongs with Exotic Dancer and Kauto Star, I have said that I believe he is a very good horse and I am frankly staggered that anyone who attempts to judge horseraces can judge a horse on a run when he is patently unfit.

On the contrary, it is never good that a horse blows for 35 minutes, but in form terms it goes to show that the horse blew up badly and you cannot possibly use the form as a true indication of how good a horse is. What this has to do with ED is that his debut was also bad, yet none of these so-called judges wrote him off as no good on that run, indeed they're lauding him now!

Indeed, what I and other people thought about his fitness just goes to illustrate my point perfectly - that you cannot always tell through sight alone, or homework alone, whether a horse is ready to do justice, not least in a Grade One chase! You can often tell to a good extent but horses are not machines, surprisingly enough each one is different and needs to be judged on its own merits. Some are incredibly stuffy and at home you may think they are fit - until you run them in testing ground over 3m in a Grade One chase, you can't always tell! To suggest otherwise is non-sensical.
 
How can anyone be certain that he won't get near to KS and ED at this stage? What I have said is that I haven't said that he belongs with them already (which I haven't), but that doesn't mean to say that it can be asserted that he won't get there.

Time will tell either way.
 
If AK was sufficiently fooled by the horse's apparent fitness on Saturday - and he's confessed that he was - then it's not surprising if the rest of us were. AK is no fool. Readying an out and out hurdler like Howle Hill, which AK has used in the past to condition all his fastest horses, is another matter altogether to readying a big stuffy horse like MWDS.

We still haven't any idea what this horse can do this season. There is no cast iron reason to think he can reach ED let alone KS, but on the evidence, none to say he can't. It will be interesting to watch - and it's not a competition :P
 
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